INDIA bloc's Mumbai conclave: Roadmap for 2024 LS polls, seat-sharing on agenda

Conclaves of the Opposition bloc – INDIA – in Patna and Bangalore presented an image of steadily improving camaraderie among its constituents owing to their common goal of unseating Narendra Modi’s BJP from power in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, However, as they gather in Mumbai for their third dialogue, scheduled for today (August 31) and tomorrow, the over five dozen leaders of INDIA’s 27 constituent parties will be looking at moving past mere optics of unity to iron out an actionable roadmap for the real electoral fight against a formidable BJP that awaits them in just six months from now.

The Patna and Bangalore conclaves were largely spent in mending strained ties of the past among some of the constituents and finding common ground for building a united anti-BJP onslaught, respectively. The meeting in Mumbai, however, is expected to see a nuanced discussion on more substantive and equally tricky issues, which would determine the sustainability of the seemingly unwieldy alliance.

Consensus on seat-sharing

“It is now time for (getting down to) brass tacks. We do not have the luxury of spending more time in ironing out differences between allies; we have to start finalising common electoral strategies and if there are issues among allies that still need sorting out then it will have to be done simultaneously. In just six months, the campaign for Lok Sabha polls will be fully underway and all INDIA parties realise that the Congress, which is the largest party in the group, will be completely occupied for the next three months with the Assembly elections of MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram. So, in real terms, we just have September to finalise the broad strokes of how the alliance wants to proceed electorally,” a senior Congress leader involved with the INDIA discussions told The Federal.

This is, however, not to say that the Mumbai conclave will resolve all issues among the INDIA partners, for several of whom the critical issue of evolving consensus on seat-sharing for the Lok Sabha polls remains a minefield that must be navigated both cautiously and adroitly. Sources told The Federal that what is likely to emerge from the informal talks among allies on Thursday and the more official discussions scheduled for Friday is the setting up of a number of working groups “with clearly defined mandates”, each of which would then carry forward the process of “building consensus on matters that could make or mar the alliance’s electoral prospects”.

These sub-groups, which will be populated by senior leaders drawn from various INDIA constituents, will individually chart the basic framework of the alliance’s communication and public outreach strategy, a common minimum programme, campaign management and, most importantly, the seat-sharing formula in key multi-party states such as Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Delhi, Maharashtra, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Jharkhand.

These states collectively account for 290 of the Lok Sabha’s 543 seats. Of these, it is widely acknowledged that building consensus on seat sharing would be the trickiest in Bengal (42 seats), UP (80 seats) and, although to a lesser extent than the former two also Maharashtra (48 seats). In Bengal, the success of the alliance would be determined by Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee’s willingness to part with seats for the Congress and the Left Front. Similarly, in UP, the longevity of the still nascent alliance will be decided by Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav’s generosity towards the Congress and his present ally, Jayant Chaudhary’s RLD. In Maharashtra, electoral prospects of the alliance will depend on whether the present show of unity among unlikely allies – the fractured Shiv Sena and NCP factions of Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar, respectively – and the Congress, sustains the test of seat-sharing talks.

In Delhi and Punjab, where a significant section of the Congress’s state leaders continue to be vociferously against any truck with Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and former party chief Rahul Gandhi will need to decide if slighting their party colleagues to appease Arvind Kejriwal, who is singularly credited with eviscerating their organisation in these states, is worth the gamble.

Sources said the seat-sharing talks for Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Jharkhand would be comparatively easier than those for Bengal, Maharashtra, UP, Delhi and Punjab as in the former bloc of states there is already a broad understanding among allies on the subject, “barring a handful of seats”.

Sub-groups

The sub-groups that will be formed at or shortly after the conclusion of the Mumbai conclave on Friday are likely to be given strict timelines to adhere too, an NCP leader told The Federal, adding that while each of these sub-groups will come up with “preliminary conclusions on the subjects allocated to them, what is proposed by them will then be discussed by the INDIA coordination committee that is expected to have leaders who are higher in the pecking order of their respective parties than the ones who will be part of the sub-groups”.

The INDIA partners are also hopeful of finalising the coordination committee during their talks in Mumbai, although sources said the group may have a few more members than the strength of 11 that had been proposed at the Bangalore dialogue “to ensure maximum representation of and broadest consensus among allies”. Sources said that the coordination committee is likely to finalise the alliance’s stand on “maximum issues” but some matters that prove more difficult to resolve “among specific parties may then be discussed by the chiefs of such parties”.

There is still some uncertainty over whether the alliance will ultimately name a convenor at the end of the Mumbai discussions or if, in addition to the coordination committee, it would also constitute a secretariat as was announced in Bangalore. Sources in the alliance said that in the wake of some INDIA leaders lobbying to be named the alliance’s convenor, an overwhelming sentiment within the grouping is to refrain from doing so as anointing one satrap at the cost of another may prove counterproductive for the unity of the bloc. The issue is likely to be discussed further during the informal talks scheduled for Thursday evening.

Will Sharad Pawar read out INDIA's joint statement?

Sources said that most parties in the alliance are of the view that a statement, endorsed by all INDIA constituents giving details of the key decisions taken during the two-day dialogue and indicating the future roadmap of the group, should be made by NCP supremo Sharad Pawar once Friday’s meeting concludes. Besides giving details of the committees and sub-committees that are likely to be constituted after the talks, the statement is also expected to highlight specific political issues on which the INDIA constituents were able to evolve a consensus. Among these, sources say, could be the alliance’s reiteration of the demand for a caste census, a renewed broadside against the Modi government on the Adani issue in light of the revelations made about the Adani Group by the global investigative journalists’ collective, Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) and expression of solidarity with victims of ethnic violence in Manipur.

In Bangalore, where the INDIA meeting was hosted by the Congress, the joint statement was read out by Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge. The Mumbai meet is being jointly hosted by the Shiv Sena (Uddhav), NCP’s Sharad Pawar faction and the Congress. With Pawar keeping his friends and foes guessing about his political manoeuvres ever since his nephew, Ajit Pawar, joined hands with the BJP and walked over with a majority of the NCP’s senior leadership to the saffron camp, sources say INDIA constituents have been building pressure on the octogenarian Maratha strongman to “unequivocally clear all suspicion” over where he stands. This, a senior NCP leader told The Federal, was also one reason why Pawar joined the ‘curtain-raiser’ press conference for the Mumbai meeting that was jointly addressed, on Wednesday, by Uddhav and Congress’s Ashok Chavan – both way lower in political stature than the NCP supremo.

The INDIA bloc is also expected to unveil a logo on Friday, though this is largely an exercise in building positive optics. The logo will have no electoral value since the constituent parties will contest the polls on their respective party symbols; the INDIA insignia would essentially be used for the alliance’s joint public outreach initiatives.