Five reasons why Rahul Gandhi opted out of Wayanad and chose Rae Bareli

It is clear now that Congress leader Rahul Gandhi will retain UP's Rae Bareli seat and give up his Wayanad seat.

However, as no non-Gandhi family member will contest the Wayanad bypoll, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is now preparing to take up the mantle.

And, she is all set to make her debut in the temple of democracy i.e., the Indian Parliament by contesting from Wayanad.

It may be recalled that after the election results were announced Rahul went to Rae Bareli to thank the voters. Two days later, he reached Wayanad and asked the people: "I find myself caught in a dilemma, unable to reach a final decision. Should I represent Wayanad as its MP or continue in Rae Bareli?"

Wayanad told him, 'Rahul ji don't leave us'. But, it was becoming clear by that time which way the wind was blowing when president of Kerala unit of Congress K Sudhakaran said, "We should not be saddened as Rahul Gandhi who is supposed to lead the nation cannot be expected to remain in Wayanad." But, why would Rahul leave Wayanad which always guarantees he wins from the constituency?

Here are five reasons why Rahul Gandhi opted out of Wayanad:

Why Rae Bareli, why UP?

Undeniably, UP is a key state in Indian politics and it not only because it sends the largest number of MPs to the Lok Sabha.

But, UP is important because it has a long history of setting the tone for the nation's politics. Winning and losing in this state simply translates into how much power you hold in the political world. It is often said the road to the central government passes through UP. Nine Prime Ministers of India, including India's first PM, the late Jawaharlal Nehru, were elected from this state or were UP residents.

Though the Opposition used to raise their voice against the Narendra Modi government earlier, the results of the 2024 has emboldened them further as they chorus, 'We have the numbers now'.

They have been enabled largely because INDIA bloc managed to win 43 seats from UP.

Their ally the Samajwadi Party got 37 seats, while Congress bagged 6 seats. If Congress has to be further strengthened in UP, it is obvious that Rahul and other party strategists focus on UP and give the state more time.

Different political picture

Political observers say that the 2024 picture is very different from the one in 2019.

This time Narendra Modi is in power but the government is running with the help of two crutches. In such a precarious situation, Rahul in UP and Priyanka contesting the Wayanad bypoll in the south, will give a big advantage to the Congress in the Parliament. Both the siblings will be able to take on the BJP in north and south India.

Growing Congress's political base in UP

Rahul is retaining the Rae Bareli seat clearly with the hope of gaining more political ground in UP.

In 2019, Congress was able to retain only one seat, Rae Bareli, but this time the 2024 election carried a lot of hope for Congress. The alliance with Samajwadi Party had significantly benefited the Congress.

Even more important is that some part of the decline in BSP's vote share went to Congress. BSP's vote share decreased from 19 per cent to 9 per cent. It is believed that out of its 10 per cent vote share, 2 to 3 per cent went to Congress.

Focus on Hindi Heartland

The main reason behind leaving Wayanad and coming to Rae Bareli is that until the Congress gets strong in the Hindi heartland, it will have to stay away from power at the centre. If you look at the Rajasthan and Haryana results, the Congress's performance has been better. This is also the reason why Rahul left the south and chose Rae Bareli. Of course, it remains to be seen how much the Congress benefits.

I did leave Wayanad but...

To Rahul, though he has given up his Wayanad seat, his sister Priyanka will now contest from the constituency in Kerala and will carry on his work. She will represent south India, while he will work to revive the Congress in UP. Rahul and the Congress realises that the party's fortunes are not going to change if they don't improve their presence in UP.

Besides the fact that UP has 80 Lok Sabha seats, victory in UP gives the victor a psychological advantage. After the June 4 results, Rahul had significantly said that although every state of the country contributed a lot to the victory of the Opposition, he would like to specially thank the people of UP who understood the attack on the Constitution. In this way, Rahul tried to woo the Hindi Heartland, which is key for the revival of the Congress.

(This article was originally published in The Federal Desh.)