India braces for hotter days, erratic monsoon as 'super El Nino' develops
Latest climate data forecasts suggest ocean and atmospheric signals are aligning, raising the possibility of one of the strongest El Niño events in decades
A new climate study indicates warmer days and an unusual monsoon ahead as the planet is likely to enter a powerful El Nino phase. Climate scientists forecast the event, considered one of the strongest in recent decades, could alter the weather patterns and bring in intense heat and unusual monsoon behaviour in India.
The new data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reveal that ocean and atmospheric signals are beginning to align by June, a key sign that the phenomenon is developing into a stronger "super El Nino".
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The last major events, in 1997–98 and 2015–16, triggered extreme weather worldwide and temporarily boosted global warming levels.
A "Super El Niño" is an exceptionally strong version of the El Niño climate phenomenon, defined by sea surface temperatures in the central/eastern Pacific rising over 2 degrees Celsius above average.
El Nino effect
According to USGS, El Niño (Spanish for "The Little Boy") is the warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures, in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean region. The surface winds at low altitudes, typically moving from east to west along the equator (referred to as "easterly winds"), may weaken or, in certain instances, reverse direction to blow from west to east (known as "westerly winds").
There is an irregular pattern in El Niño's occurrence, from two years to a decade, and no two events are identical. El Niño events can disrupt normal weather patterns across the globe.
During El Nino, the trade winds, which normally push warm surface water towards southeast Asia and Australia, leading to cooler water rising near South America, spread east across the Pacific. This major shift in the atmospheric circulation leads to warm ocean water pushing the air up and heavy rainfall over the central and eastern Pacific.
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The result is a major shift in global atmospheric circulation. Warm ocean waters trigger rising air and heavy rainfall over the central and eastern Pacific. Meanwhile, areas such as the Indian Ocean and parts of Africa see descending air currents that reduce rainfall and lead to higher temperatures.
Climate scientists predict an extremely classic El Nino with strong rising air over the Pacific and descending air across the Indian Ocean region.
Impact on India
The effects of El Nino for India have historically been hotter temperatures and weaker rainfall.
The strength of India’s summer monsoon largely depends on the temperature difference between land and ocean. During El Nino years, shifts in atmospheric patterns can weaken the winds that bring moisture from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. A strong El Nino, if it materialises, could increase heatwave conditions in northern and central India and raise concerns of reduced monsoon rainfall.
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Dr E Dharmaraju, a senior scientist at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Hyderabad, confirmed to The Federal that the summer of 2026 could see higher temperatures due to the El Niño effect. IMD officials also said that 2026 could be a warmer year than 2025.
A weather enthusiast predicted that El Niño is nearing, and the second half of the summer in May and the first half of June, is likely to be drier with massive heatwaves. He added that the first half of summer – from the second half of February till April – will be rainy with normal heat.
Global weather pattern
Beyond India, the developing climate pattern could reshape weather across the globe. Scientists say stronger vertical wind shear in the Atlantic may suppress hurricane activity, while the western Pacific could see more typhoons than usual.
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Although it is still too early to determine the full strength of the event, scientists say the signs are becoming clearer that a strong El Niño could be developing, potentially influencing weather patterns worldwide in the months ahead.