Amit Shah predicts a 'big victory' for BJP in South states

The BJP, which has traditionally struggled to make a foray into south India seems highly confident that the party is all set to notch up significant gains in this region, in this national polls.

In an interview to NDTV, Union home minister Amit Shah said he foresees a “big victory” for the saffron party in the four southern states of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu.

These five southern states account for roughly 20 per cent of the country’s population and 30 per cent of its economy and is the centre of India’s manufacturing and high-tech sectors.

According to Shah, the BJP is moving to a "big victory" in these four southern states.

2019 results

Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu make up 109 Lok Sabha seats. Last time, in 2019, the BJP won 29; the bulk of it coming from Karnataka and four from Telangana.

In both Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu the BJP, however, had failed to win any seat. The party also drew a blank in Kerala, which has 20 Lok Sabha seats. Tamil Nadu and the larger south India have remained immune to the religion-driven politics that have traditionally characterised the BJP.

Tamil Nadu’s politics has for decades been shaped by anti-Brahmanical sentiments.

However, opinion polls by the same TV channel had predicted that BJP may be able to bag two seats in Tamil Nadu, where PM Modi made 10 visits in eight weeks.

BJP's target

The BJP, which is largely pitted against the Congress-led INDIA bloc in this election, is aiming for 370+ seats (400+ including its National Democratic Alliance partners).

Most reports suggested that the bulk of the seats will come from the Hindi heartland, including Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Haryana, and Gujarat, etc., which has over 200 seats.

In 2019, BJP won over 190 seats from the Hindi heartland states like UP, MP, Bihar, Rajasthan, Haryana and Gujarat. The BJP needs to clinch a similar number and also make some inroads in the south to be able to achieve this target. Moreover, the BJP has no major partners in the south states. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu, too had broken off ties with them after constant run-ins with BJP state chief K Annamalai.

Congress tally

The Congress, on the other hand too did not make much headway in the south states in 2019. They got fewer seats than the BJP as the Congress was decimated in Andhra Pradesh (the ruling YSR Congress Party won 22 of 25, while N Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party picked up the other three) and in Karnataka too they lost badly.

The Congress however won big in Kerala, where it got 15 seats. But Kerala refused to entertain the BJP and kept them out.

However, in this election, after the Congress thrashed the BJP in the Karnataka and defeated KCR in Telangana Assembly elections, the stakes have gone up.

Yet, Shah has said that BJP will have its "best ever showing" in the southern states due to PM Modi's popularity.

BJP's vote share in south states

Modi and Shah in fact have cited the increased vote share between 2014 and 2019 as another sign of the BJP's reach in South India. However, according to reports, the vote share has not consistently gone up in all the south states. Largely, in Karnataka and Telangana the vote share jumped by 8.38 per cent and over 10 per cent respectively.

Suprisingly in Kerala, the BJP which did not win a single seat, increased its vote share from 10 per cent in 2014 to 12.93 per cent five years later.

In Tamil Nadu, the BJP's vote share fell from 5.5 per cent in 2014 to less than 3.7 in 2019. Similarly, in Andhra Pradesh the vote share fell 7.54 per cent between 2014 and 2019.

Revanth Reddy reacts

Meanwhile, rubbishing Shah’s claim, Telangana Chief Minister Revanth Reddy believed BJP will just manage to romp home in just 12-15 seats out of the 130 seats in the south.