Agnipath, China, reforms: 5 key challenges for Defence Minister Rajnath Singh

Rajnath Singh is among the four BJP ministers who have predictably continued with their respective key portfolios as the NDA 3.0 government takes charge.

Singh has been helming the crucial Defence Ministry since 2019, in which time India has dealt with serious Chinese aggression at her borders but increased her defence exports to an all-time high, even as the Agnipath scheme continues to face disapproval from the Opposition and BJP allies alike. Singh is likely to see an extension of all of these positives and negatives well into his renewed term.

“Safeguarding India’s border will remain our topmost priority and we shall continue protecting India’s integrity & sovereignty. Under the visionary leadership of PM Modi we shall rededicate ourselves to strengthen ‘Make in India’ and take defence manufacturing & exports to greater heights,” Singh summed up in an X post shortly after he took charge for the second time.

Here is a list of the key challenges facing Singh as the Defence Minister in his second term.

1. Agnipath recruitment scheme

A major hurdle the former NDA government at the Centre created for itself was the Agnipath scheme. And, this contentious scheme is believed to have been responsible for its electoral reversals in several North Indian states in the just-concluded Lok Sabha polls.

The Agnipath scheme is a short-term service in the armed forces launched in June 2022. Under the scheme, the forces recruit male and female candidates aged between 17.5 and 21 years for four years, with the provision to retain 25 per cent for an additional 15 years. These recruits, known as Agniveers, are not eligible for a pension but a severance package upon completion of their service.

While the scheme’s announcement had triggered violent protests in several parts of the country, the Opposition has repeatedly slammed the government over it, raising concerns about job security and long-term career prospects. Now, BJP’s alliance partners, including Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) have also called for a review of the scheme.

Now, the armed forces have reportedly proposed some changes to the Agnipath scheme, including raising the retention rate of Agniveers from 25 per cent to 60-75 per cent, increasing their training period to the level of regular soldiers and their service period to seven years so that they can be eligible for gratuity and ex-servicemen (ESM) status.

Besides these, the Centre has also appointed a group of secretaries from 10 key ministries to review the Agnipath scheme and suggest ways to make it more attractive. One of the key challenges before Singh is to sort out the whole Agnipath row.

2. Theaterisation of armed forces

One of the most ambitious goals of the (ongoing) Modi government has been the theaterisation of the armed forces. It essentially involves increasing coordination among the three defence services — the Army, Navy, and the Air Force — and establishing “theatre commands”. It was in the BJP’s election manifesto as well.

Currently, the 17-lakh-strong Indian armed forces have 17 individual commands, barring two tri-service commands — the Andaman and Nicobar Command and the Strategic Forces Command. Though it is not yet clear what such theatre commands will look like, reports say these will take care of security challenges in a certain geographical territory under an operational commander. So, there may be two integrated theatre commands to counter Pakistan and China.

The process that began three years ago has gained some momentum in recent times. According to media reports, the previous Modi government, even before the elections were completed, declared to the defence and security establishment that theaterisation would roll out within a year of the swearing-in of the new government. It also reportedly told the armed forces to come up with a structure for such theatre commands in that time.

If Modi 3.0 can pull it off, theaterisation will be the biggest military reform in the country, and Singh, of course, has to play a key role in it. On May 4, Singh, then in his previous term as Defence Minister, had said in a media interview that theaterisation was progressing, and a consensus was emerging among the three services. Singh’s first task would be to maintain that momentum.

3. Sorting out dispute with China and strengthening the borders

The previous Modi government faced its biggest challenge in 2020 when a fierce clash broke out between Indian and Chinese troops in Ladakh’s Galwan Valley, marking the most serious military conflict between the two sides in decades.

Since then, the Indian and Chinese militaries have been locked in a standoff at the Line of Actual Control (LAC), and a full resolution of the border dispute has not yet been achieved despite 21 rounds of talks, even though the two sides have disengaged from several friction points.

Singh, in his previous term as the Defence Minister, had said in May that the talks were “going on well” without elaborating further. India has been demanding that the border status be restored to what existed in the middle of 2020. Even as the situation remains “stable” but “sensitive”, Singh said in May that India has been developing infrastructure along the frontier with China at a rapid speed.

Seeing that such infrastructure continues to be developed along the border, to enable faster military mobilisation in sensitive sectors, so that China —as well as old rival Pakistan — can be kept in check is one of the major challenges before Singh.

4. Boosting domestic defence manufacturing and promoting exports

In his previous tenure as the Defence Minister, Singh made a significant push for self-reliance in defence production following Modi’s “Atmanirbhar Bharat” and Make In India agendas. The government restricted imports of various defence items and pushed for the manufacturing of critical weapons domestically.

Traditionally, India has been one of the largest importers of arms globally. According to estimates, the Indian armed forces are projected to spend around USD 130 billion in capital procurement by 2029. At the same time, the defence ministry has set a goal of a turnover of USD 25 billion (Rs 1.75 lakh crore) in defence manufacturing in the next five years. Projects such as the Tejas fighter jet and Scorpene submarines are expected to be finalized by this yearend.

Side by side, India’s defence exports have also been going up. These crossed the Rs 21,000-crore mark for the first time in 2023-24, and the Defence Ministry has set a target of increasing it to Rs 50,000 crore in the next five-six years.

5. Overhauling DRDO

Alongside these, another priority area for Singh would be to revamp the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). A high-powered committee has reportedly recommended several reforms for the DRDO, which Singh will have to look into. These reforms will also be in line with his agenda of boosting self-reliance in defence. All in all, Singh faces a challenging yet promising term ahead, with a triangular focus on national security, key reforms, and self-reliance in defence.