US Election 2024: New poll puts Trump ahead in swing states in close race

In a big turnaround, on the eve of the voting day, November 5, AtlasIntel’s latest poll has indicated that former President Donald Trump is leading the race, especially in all seven swing states.

Earlier, the final pre-election New York Times survey released on November 3 had showed that in the swing race, Trump and Vice-President Kamala Harris were at a tie-position. It showed Harris ahead in four of the seven states, Trump up in one and a tie in two others—though polling averages show no candidate leads by more than 2.5 points in any of the seven battlegrounds.

The AtlasIntel survey, which was conducted on the first two days of November and included nearly 2,500 likely voters in the US, revealed that about 49 per cent of the respondents were in favour of voting for Trump in the upcoming presidential election.

The Republican candidate holds a 1.8 per cent vote lead over his counterpart Democrat Kamala Harris. Interestingly, most of the voters in the survey were women.

Why swing states matter?

In the US, three types of states affect the elections: Red States, Blue States, and Swing States. In Red States, Republicans have consistently won since 1980, while Democrats have dominated in Blue States since 1992. These states have generally yielded predictable electoral outcomes.

In Swing states, the battle between Republicans and Democrats is often closely fought, with candidates winning with very small margins. For example, in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden won Arizona by just 10,000 votes.

The swing states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

On the eve of voting in the 2024 presidential elections, this is where the swing states stand according to pollsters. However, interestingly, surveys are throwing up very different results:

Arizona

In Arizona, Trump seems to have his widest margin — some surveys predict a 51.9 per cent lead over Harris’ 45.1 per cent lead.

In the New York Times/Siena poll, Trump was leading 49 per cent-45 per cent but this number shot upto 51 per cent to 47 per cent in the CES survey (2,066 respondents).

In the Marist poll released on October 25, Trump leads 50 per cent-49 per cent and the figure hovers at 49 per cent-46 per cent in a Washington Post-Schar School survey.

However, one survey, the Morning Consult showed a 48 per cent-48 per cent tie between the two contestants making the picture more hazy.

Compared to other polls, the CNN/SSRS poll went ahead last week to give Harris the lead in Arizona with 48 per cent-47 per cent (margin of error of 4,4 per cent).

Nevada

According to reports, when people were asked in Nevada who they would vote for in the upcoming presidential election, 51.4 per cent of voters chose Trump while 45.9 per cent chose Harris.

Though most surveys released last week tilted in favour of Harris.

The New York Times/Siena poll for example showed Harris leading Trump with 49 per cent-46 per cent, while the Emerson survey too found Harris ahead 48 per cent-47 per cent (margin of error 3.6 points) and she’s up 51 per cent-47 per cent in the CES survey (933 respondents).

However, the CNN/SSRS poll released on October 29 (margin of error 4.6 points) found Trump ahead by 48 per cent-47 per cent.

North Carolina

It is a mixed bag in this state as well. In North Carolina, Trump seems to be clearly ahead by 50.4 per cent of votes, while Harris gets 46.8 per cent of the vote share.

However, in some surveys released on Sunday (October 3) Harris leads.

A New York Times/Siena poll (margin of error 3.5 points) showed Harries leading 48-46 per cent, and a CNN-SSRS poll released much earlier around October end showed her at 48 per cent-47 per cent (margin of error 4.5 points)

However, several other recent polls show Trump ahead, as in the Morning Consult poll out on Sunday (October 3) showed the Republican leader at 50 per cent-48 per cent and a Fox News survey out last week at 49 per cent-47 per cent in a two-way contest, while he leads 50 per cent-48 per cent in earlier surveys by the Cooperative Election Study, Marist and Emerson College.

It couldn’t get any closer for the two Presidential candidates in this state.

Trump and Harris are tied at 48 per cent in both a New York Times/Siena poll (margin of error 3.5 points) and a Morning Consult poll.

However, a Marist poll puts Harris ahead at 50 per cent-48 per cent, while a Washington Post poll has her leading at 48 per cent-47 per cent. She’s ahead 49 per cent-48 per cent in a large Cooperative Election study survey, though Trump is up 47 per cent - 46 per cent in an October 30 Quinnipiac poll.

Georgia

Harris is ahead here with 48 per cent-47 per cent in the New York Times/Siena poll, while Trump’s up 50 per cent-48 per cent in the Morning Consult survey.

Trump got a 48 per cent-47 per cent edge in the October 31st CNN/SSRS poll (margin of error 4.7). The CES survey (2,663 respondents) shows Trump has a more substantial lead of 51 per cent-46 per cent.

Michigan

Harris and Trump are tied at 47 per cent in the New York Times/Siena poll.

However, Harris is up 49 per cent-48 per cent in a Morning Consult poll in this state and 51 per cent-48 per cent in the Marist poll. Three other surveys also showed that Harris is leading in Michigan, said reports.

But to confuse the picture, Trump got a rare lead in a Washington Post survey, which was released on October 31. Trump's numbers had gone up to 47 per cent-45 per cent, while the Emerson survey released earlier had him ahead at 49 per cent-48 per cent (margin of error 3 points).

Wisconson

In this state, Harris is ahead 49 per cent-47 per cent in the New York Times/Siena survey, Marist survey too put her ahead at 50 per cent-48 per cent.

The CES poll had her 50 per cent -47 per cent, in which 1,542 respondents were surveyed. The CNN/SSRS poll too placed her at 51 per cent-45 per cent, while the Marquette poll had her leading 50 per cent-49 per cent.

However, Morning Consult gave Trump a roughly one-point lead (rounded to 48 per cent-48 per cent). Trump is up 49 per cent to 48 per centin an Emerson poll, and the two candidates are tied at 48 per cent in a Quinnipiac survey.

Harris leads

In a nutshell, Harris has a 49 per cent-48 per cent lead among voters across all seven battlegrounds, according to a new HarrisX/Forbes poll out on October 31, a statistical tie—but 14 per cent of swing state voters are still weighing their options, meaning there’s plenty of room for the race to shift, said a Forbes report.

Interestingly, while Harris has led Trump in every Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters since she entered the race in July, her lead has steadily shrunk since late September.

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance—and that changed the Democrats’ fortunes dramatically.

Prior to the shift, polls found Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.