
The war, which began with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, has resulted in devastating consequences for Ukraine’s infrastructure, population, and economy. | File photo
Trump’s bold Ukraine peace promise faces reality check
Can Trump end the Ukraine-Russia war? The Federal examines his bold claims, global stakes, and complex challenges
US President Donald Trump had promised during his campaign to end the Russia-Ukraine war within a day. Now, three days into his second term, the war continues unabated, leaving many questioning the feasibility of his claims. Trump’s ability to deliver on his pledge faces significant hurdles, as the nearly three-year-old conflict remains deeply entrenched.
The war, which began with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, has resulted in devastating consequences for Ukraine’s infrastructure, population, and economy. As the conflict rages on, Trump’s confidence in brokering peace has yet to materialise into concrete action.
Ground Realities in Conflict
Ukraine’s territorial losses over the years have tilted the ground situation in Russia’s favour. In addition to annexing Crimea in 2014, Russia has expanded its control over the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine. While Ukraine has made limited incursions into Russian territory, holding onto these gains has proven difficult.
President Vladimir Putin remains firm in his stance, rejecting any notion of relinquishing occupied territories. Similarly, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky insists that peace is impossible without the complete withdrawal of Russian forces. This impasse complicates Trump’s vision for a quick resolution.
Trump’s Diplomatic Hurdles
Trump’s longstanding relationship with Putin has sparked speculation about his ability to influence the Russian leader. While ties between the two leaders have been a subject of controversy, Trump’s influence over Ukraine’s Zelensky is negligible. Any peace deal that requires Ukraine to cede territory would likely provoke backlash from the Ukrainian public.
“Why would Zelensky agree to such terms after the immense loss and destruction Ukraine has suffered?” analysts question. The demands of both nations remain irreconcilable, with NATO membership for Ukraine further complicating negotiations.
The Role of Sanctions
Trump has reportedly threatened to impose additional sanctions on Russia, despite the latter’s resilience under existing measures. Countries like India and Turkey have helped Russia navigate sanctions by rerouting its crude oil to European markets. However, if Trump were to pressure these nations, it could destabilise global energy supplies and economies.
European nations, already struggling with energy shortages, would bear the brunt of such actions. This could deepen the geopolitical crisis, alienating allies and exacerbating tensions within NATO.
The Fallout of Inaction
If Trump fails to mediate a peace deal, the war could persist, potentially fracturing NATO alliances. Western European nations may independently support Ukraine, creating a divide within the coalition. This scenario would weaken the unity and influence of NATO in global politics.
Turning off funding for Ukraine is another option Trump may consider to force compliance. However, such a move risks alienating Ukraine and its supporters, undermining the US’ leadership in the global arena.
What Lies Ahead?
Trump’s ambitious promise to end the war faces formidable obstacles, from reconciling conflicting demands to managing global diplomatic fallout. While his campaign rhetoric captivated voters, the complexities of the Russia-Ukraine conflict require more than bold declarations.
As Trump navigates his second term, the world watches closely to see whether his vision for peace can overcome entrenched geopolitical realities.
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