Syria’s post-civil war future: New challenges under Ahmad al-Shara

After 13 years of brutal civil war, Syria has entered a new chapter with the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad on December 8. Ahmad al-Shara, leader of the Sunni-majority Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has taken over in a bid to rebuild the fractured nation.

While initial steps toward reconciliation and unity have been made, Syria faces critical challenges — both internally and externally — as it navigates its path toward peace.

The Federal's Managing Editor KS Dakshina Murthy analysed this issue in the latest episode of the weekly YouTube program, Worldly Wise.

Power transition in Syria

The civil war that devastated Syria for over a decade saw a dramatic turning point with Bashar al-Assad's ousting. Ahmad al-Shara’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, once a rebel group, now leads a transitional government in Damascus.

Shara has promised reconciliation and inclusion, signaling a departure from authoritarianism. However, deep-seated tensions remain, particularly between the Sunni majority now in power and the Alawite minority, which had aligned with Assad. Fears of retaliatory violence against Alawites loom large, threatening to unravel fragile unity efforts.

Kurdish dilemma and Turkey’s role

A significant challenge for Syria’s new leadership is its relationship with the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

While the SDF was an ally in the fight against Assad, Turkey considers it a terrorist group due to its links with the PKK, a Kurdish militant organization waging a separatist struggle within Turkey.

Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has firmly opposed the inclusion of the SDF in Syria’s transitional government. Ahmad al-Shara must balance this complex dynamic, as the United States, a backer of the SDF, also played a critical role in Assad's removal.

Israel’s strategic moves

Israel has emerged as a key player in the new Syrian reality. Following Assad’s fall, Israel unilaterally occupied parts of the Golan Heights and launched a series of airstrikes targeting Syrian military installations.

These moves are seen as attempts to neutralize potential threats from Damascus. While Ahmad al-Shara appears inclined to maintain friendly ties with Israel, this stance risks provoking Iran, a staunch opponent of Israel and Assad’s former ally. Iran has warned that Syria’s relationship with Israel will determine its actions in the region.

Iran and Russia’s waning influence

With the collapse of Assad’s regime, Iran and Russia—once pivotal allies of Damascus—find themselves sidelined. Iran, which provided extensive support to Assad, is now demanding repayment for years of oil supplies and has begun scaling back its involvement.

Similarly, Russia is withdrawing its military assets, focusing instead on its ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Ahmad al-Shara’s ability to navigate these strained relationships will significantly impact Syria’s regional standing.

Internal reconciliation: A daunting task

Internally, Syria’s new government faces the herculean task of bridging divides among various factions. While many rebel groups, including the Free Syrian Army, have joined the HTS-led government, the Kurdish SDF remains excluded.

Additionally, fears of sectarian violence between Sunnis and Alawites could destabilize the fledgling administration. Ahmad al-Shara’s leadership will be tested as he attempts to transform Syria into a unified nation.

The path forward

Syria’s future hinges on Ahmad al-Shara’s ability to address three critical challenges: achieving internal reconciliation, managing relations with the Kurdish SDF and Turkey, and balancing ties with Israel and neighboring powers like Iran. His shift from rigid authoritarianism to a more inclusive approach offers hope, but the road ahead is fraught with risks.

As regional powers like Turkey and Israel assert their influence and global actors like the United States maintain strategic interests, Syria’s path to stability will depend on careful diplomacy and effective governance. Whether the nation can overcome its deep divisions and emerge as a peaceful state remains to be seen.

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