Rush over trial may be Yunus’s way of keeping Hasina out of Bangladesh

The Mohammed Yunus-led caretaker government in Dhaka seems to be in a hurry to complete the trial of ousted Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to restrain her from political activities.

Much of it stems from Yunus’s attempt to divert attention from the rising pressure he is facing from political parties for early elections and the growing frustration among the people over rising inflation and crime in the country.

A hollow assurance?

Though Yunus has said in an interview that the Awami League will be welcome in the country once the trial is over, the assurance sounds hollow to most of Hasina’s supporters.

A trial against Hasina and other Awami League leaders will ensure they are away from the country and cannot engage in political activities to regain lost ground.

The country’s special tribunal has given investigators a month to complete their work on Hasina and her close aides in the Awami League, all of whom face charges of crimes against humanity for their role in the July-August anti-government protests in Bangladesh.

Also read: Bangladesh will seek Sheikh Hasina’s extradition: Muhammad Yunus in U-turn

The real intention

The protests, spearheaded by students against a “discriminatory” job reservation policy that favoured descendants of freedom fighters who took part in the country’s liberation struggle in 1971, turned into a mass uprising against the Hasina government that had ruled Bangladesh for 15 years.

After her ouster from power on August 5, Hasina fled to India and has been here ever since. But the Yunus-led caretaker government wants to not only try her for her alleged crimes but also India to extradite her to Dhaka.

However, observers believe the alacrity with which the entire process is being completed by Yunus is really to ensure Hasina and her colleagues in the Awami League do not return to the country and organise people against the caretaker government’s fast-falling stocks.

Yunus under pressure

Yunus, a celebrated economist whose work in the Grameen Bank through his micro credit policy helped improve the lives of a large number of poor people in Bangladesh, was awarded the Nobel Prize for his effort.

After Hasina’s departure, he was brought in to head the caretaker administration to stabilize the country and put the economy back on track.

But so far, he has failed to revive the economy, and the current inflation rate has reached nearly 11 per cent with a steady rise in the prices of essential commodities adding to people’s growing misery.

The law-and-order situation has also deteriorated significantly, with clashes between rival political groups, increase in criminal activities in all major cities, and rising cases of communal clashes with attacks on Hindus and other religious minorities.

Also read: As mobocracy rules Bangladesh, law and order, human rights take a hit

Sagging morale of police

Much of the problem has been created due to the sagging morale of the police, as its credibility among the general public has taken a beating for being in the frontline during the clashes with students during the protests.

More than 1,500 people died in police firing and clashes between students and Hasina’s supporters.

The army has been supporting the caretaker government and assisting the police. But this has not helped bring down criminal activities and create normalcy in the country, as a pall of unease and tension hangs over the country.

More arrests expected

Meanwhile, the Golam Mortuza Majumdar-headed three-judge International Crimes Tribunal has set December 17 for investigators to complete their work after the police and security agencies gave it an update of what they have done to arrest Hasina and her associates.

Mohammed Tajul Islam, chief prosecutor of the tribunal, told the judges during the hearing that they were working in line with an extradition treaty signed earlier with India to make Hasina’s return possible.

More than 20 people, including some Cabinet ministers in Hasina’s government, have been arrested and many more are expected in the coming days.

Also read: With Yunus govt on back foot, Trump’s return heightens Bangladesh uncertainty

Reform and election

The caretaker government is seeking time to normalise the situation in the country, as it has undertaken a reform programme to plug the loopholes in the existing political structure and improve it to the level where Bangladesh’s dream for a proper democracy can be achieved.

It has made it clear that elections in the country will be held only after some of the essential reforms are completed.

But major political parties, particularly the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), are restless that the reforms are further delaying the elections that can elect a government to deal with the challenges Bangladesh faces currently.

Why BNP wants early polls

There have been frequent factional fights within the BNP in the past weeks, as party members are busy taking over the lucrative enterprises that have been left vacant since the Awami League leaders fled the country or went into hiding.

However, the clashes over these illegal enterprises are affecting the party’s image and most people are wondering whether the BNP will be the right replacement for the Awami League to make Bangladesh more democratic.

Observers feel this is a compelling reason for the BNP to have early elections before its image is further eroded before the electorate.

Also read: Bengal: Uneasy India-Bangladesh ties hit trade, medical tourism

India key to resolving Hasina issue

The caretaker government has withdrawn Hasina’s passport since she fled to India. The two countries have an extradition treaty and Yunus has threatened to place a request for the former Prime Minister’s extradition to Dhaka under the treaty.

But there is a big question mark over whether India will oblige Yunus if such a request is made. Hasina was described by Indian foreign policy experts as a “dream partner” of New Delhi when she was in power. Relations between India and Bangladesh were most cooperative and least trouble-prone under Hasina’s long rule. She and her Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, had built a relationship of friendship, trust, and confidence.

Several projects, particularly those linked to connectivity that would give easier access to the North East region to the Indian mainland through Bangladesh and bring mutual benefit to the involved parties, were undertaken during Hasina’s years in government.

Will India agree to extradite Hasina?

The beleaguered Bangladesh Prime Minister had sought shelter in India at short notice, as a mob menacingly headed towards her official residence and army chief Waker-Uz-Zaman suggested she leaves the country in a waiting helicopter for her own security.

The Indian leadership was totally surprised and angry with the manner in which Hasina was ousted from power as the cooperative relation between India and Bangladesh had become a model for New Delhi to convince other South Asian neighbours on how they, too, could gain from cooperation with India.

Observers feel that it is, therefore, unlikely for India to extradite Hasina to Bangladesh. India may refuse a request from Bangladesh, if it is made, using the argument it would not be safe for her to return to the country.

It may serve Yunus’s agenda to keep Hasina out of country

Last week, the caretaker government appointed Toby Cadman, a top human rights lawyer of international repute as a Special Prosecutor Advisor to the International Crimes Tribunal Bangladesh. He is also an extradition specialist.

Despite the extradition of Hasina being a popular demand among students and sections of the civil society in Bangladesh, it is not clear whether it serves Yunus’s agenda to bring her to Dhaka for trial or keep up the pressure to ensure she stays away and maintains a low profile.

Given the composition of the caretaker government in Dhaka, Yunus may continue to use the extradition issue to pressure India. But there is wide scepticism on how effective it will be.