Israel-Iran conflict: What's Axis of Resistance vs Abraham Alliance; is a war inevitable?

The killing of Fuad Shukr, a top Hezbollah commander, in Lebanon’s capital Beirut in an Israeli airstrike on July 30 and that of Ismail Haniyeh, head of the political bureau of Hamas, in Tehran, to attend new President Masoud Pezeshkian's inauguration, have intensified fears that deadly rivals Israel and Lebanon, are poised at the brink of an all-out war. Both had been trading blows against each other since the October 7 attack in Gaza.

This flare-up in hostilities comes against the backdrop of the never-ending war in Gaza, where the Israeli military is fighting the Iran-backed Hamas. Amid the threat of a possible Israel-Iran war, political observers are questioning whether on the global stage this conflict will become an Abraham Alliance vs Axis of resistance?

Abraham Alliance

So, what is the Abraham Alliance?

It was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who brought up the idea of establishing a regional alliance called the ‘Abraham Alliance’ to combat 'Iran's terror'.

This new regional coalition is essentially anti-Iran. The name Abraham stems from the Abraham Accords, which were normalisation agreements brokered during the Trump administration between Israel and several Arab states. These accords were viewed as a “significant milestone” in Middle Eastern diplomacy.

These agreements led to Israel forging formal relations with Arab countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. Netanyahu said that all countries that are at peace with Israel and those who will make peace with Israel should be invited to join this alliance. According to Netanyahu, Iran’s axis of terror confronts America, Israel, and our Arab friends.

"This is not a clash of civilizations. It’s a clash between barbarism and civilization," Netanyahu had said, according to international media reports.

Axis of Resistance

Meanwhile, what is the Axis of Resistance—Iran’s network of proxies?

Iran, which describes Israel as the "Zionist entity" is officially committed to destroy it. Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, Iran has extended its grip across the Middle East by developing a network of proxy armed groups, collectively known as the Axis of Resistance. This network includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, various militias in Iraq, and militant groups in Syria and Gaza. These proxies help in pushing Iran's strategic interests in the region, and are focussed on diminishing US influence and wiping out Israel.

The origins of the "Axis of Resistance" go back to the Iranian Revolution of 1979, which brought back the radical Shia Muslim clerics to power. To extend its political and military influence in a region largely dominated by Sunni-majority countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Iran’s new regime began supporting non-state actors.

Groups of the Axis of Resistance

Who are then the groups part of the Iran-led Axis of Resistance?

In the Palestinian territories, Iran has cultivated relationships with militant groups such as Hamas, which led a gruesome attack on Israeli civilians on October 7 and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). These groups receive financial and military support from Iran. Hamas, which has its origins in the Muslim Brotherhood movement, was founded in 1987 after the first Palestinian uprising, known as the intifada. The group governed the Gaza Strip since 2007.

The Hezbollah

Hezbollah, which was established in early 1980s with Iranian support, is Iran's first significant proxy in the Middle East.

Funded and armed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hezbollah, a powerful group within the Axis of Resistance follows Iran’s Shiite Islamist ideology and its recruits also come from Lebanon's Shiite Muslim population. Originally formed to fight Israeli forces in Lebanon in 1982, Hezbollah has now morphed into a formidable military and political force, possessing an arsenal of at least 130,000 rockets and missiles.It is the only faction to have retained its weapons post-civil war and is believed to possess a larger arsenal than the Lebanese army.

Hezbollah has been engaged in frequent cross-border exchanges of fire with Israel since October 7 last year. The recent killing of Shukr, whom Israel accuses of orchestrating a weekend attack on the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights that resulted in the deaths of 12 children, has sparked fears of a harsh retaliation from Hezbollah.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has frequently boasted the group's advanced weaponry can penetrate deep into Israeli territory. The group has sophisticated armoury, much of it supplied by Iran and Russia, which includes more than a million rockets, anti-tank weaponry, suicide drones and a range of missies.

The Houthis

The Houthi movement in Yemen, supported by Iran, has emerged as a key player in the regional conflict. Formed in the 1990s, it has slowly become a force to reckon with after 2014, when the Houthis received military and financial backing from the IRGC. In the aftermath of the Gaza war, the Houthis have launched many attacks on commercial shipping in the Gulf, claiming these targets are linked to Israel.

These actions have led to retaliatory strikes by the United States and its allies.

Shiite Militias in Iraq

Many Iraqi Shiite Muslim groups, aligned with Iran, are hostile to the United States.

After the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iran expanded its influence by establishing and supporting various Shiite militias. Notable groups include Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, and the Badr Organisation. These militias have often targeted US forces and maintain close ties with Tehran.

Iran's alliance with the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria has been critical in the Syrian civil war in 2011. Tehran has given significant military support, including approximately 80,000 fighting personnel, to boost Assad's forces.

Iran has organised and supported various Shiite militias, such as the Zaynabiyoun Brigade (comprising Pakistani fighters) and the Fatemiyoun Division (consisting of Afghan Hazara fighters), to support the Syrian government.

Is a face-off in the offing?

The Axis of Resistance views the strike in Beirut as a “violation of all rules of engagement”.

For Iran, it is a source of great embarrassment that Ismail Haniyeh’s killing happened on Iranian soil, which is a display of Israel's ability to strike targets inside its borders.

Also, for Iran, Haniyeh's death is “humiliating” as it exposes Tehran’s inability to protect high-profile visitors. Haniyeh may not be an integral part of the axis of resistance and his death has no strategic implications for Iran other thanbeing a slap in the face of Iran. A guest has been killed under their watch.

Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said that Israel “must be punished and shall be” for an operation he said was equivalent to an attack on Iranian soil.

Now, the question is in what form will the aggression take? Some international news reports suggested that Iran could launch missile or armed drone strikes against Israeli military sites or infrastructure. This highly visible retaliation could spark off regional and international responses

Experts suggested that Iran may seek to retaliate through its Axis of Resistance proxies. These groups are trained, armed and can reach anywhere in the world. These groups can hit Israeli or Jewish targets globally.

Some anticipated that Iran's response would involve another direct attack on Israel.

The overall strategic outlook remains the same in the sense that Hezbollah does not want to escalate this into a massive war, a think tank expert. Hence, Iran may engage in a "staggered operation" and take the lead. This will then be followed by attacks from the other armed groups. Or, they may just go for a high-profile military target.

Some analysts warn that a targetted attack by the “axis-of-resistance” risks killing Israeli military personnel or civilians and this can trigger off a major regional conflict. This means that Israel will respond more aggressively and this tit-for-tat can explode into a full-blown war, said experts.

Israel boasts of having one of the world’s best-equipped armies with US-made weapon such as F35 fighter jets as well as top-of-the-range air defences and other new equipment. It has also cultivated a well-developed domestic arms industry that produces its own tanks, armoured vehicles, air defences, missiles and drones.

It has warned that if an all-out war broke out, its military actions will go harder and deeper than the 2006 conflagration. Washington has provided at least $12.5 billion in military aid since the October 7 attack. Also, Israel is the only country in the Middle East with nuclear power, which it does not acknowledge.Some experts even felt that the Iran-led response may happen on August 5.