Iran war emissions hit 5 million tonnes in two weeks, study flags climate toll

On top of the loss of life, gruesome injuries, damaged infrastructure, and enormous economic disruption, the US-Israel war on Iran is also likely to leave a long-lasting scar on the planet. A climate analysis by the Climate and Community Institute, shared exclusively with The Guardian, has found that the conflict generated five million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions in just its first 14 days, draining the global carbon budget faster than 84 of the world's lowest-emitting nations do in an entire year.

The study was led by Fred Otu-Larbi of the University of Energy and Natural Resources in Ghana, and co-authored by Patrick Bigger, the institute's research director.

Buildings bear biggest carbon cost

The destruction of civilian infrastructure is the single largest source of emissions. The Iranian Red Crescent has reported that approximately 20,000 buildings have been damaged by US-Israeli strikes, with the analysis estimating this accounts for around 2.4 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e), turning large parts of Iran into what researchers describe as an environmental sacrifice zone.

Bombers, fleets and fuel consumption

Military operations are the second biggest driver. The analysis estimates that between 150 million and 270 million litres of fuel were consumed by aircraft, naval vessels, and ground vehicles in the first two weeks, producing 529,000 tCO2e. US heavy bombers flying sorties from as far away as the west of England were among the largest contributors.

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Benjamin Neimark of Queen Mary University of London told AFP that the US Navy's fleet compounds the problem further. "That is a significant number of US troops that need to be fed, housed, and working around the clock. These floating cities all need energy," he said.

Oil fires and toxic pollution

Among the most alarming images of the war have been the dark clouds and black rain over Tehran after Israel bombed major fuel storage depots, exposing millions to toxic pollution. Between 2.5 million and 5.9 million barrels of oil are estimated to have been destroyed across similar strikes, including Iranian retaliatory attacks on Gulf neighbours, releasing 1.88 million tCO2e. The destruction of military hardware added further emissions: the US lost four aircraft, Iran lost 28 aircraft, 21 naval vessels, and around 300 missile launchers, contributing 172,000 tCO2e. Missiles and drones used by all parties added a further 55,000 tCO2e.

Equivalent to Kuwait's annual output

In total, the first two weeks produced 5,055,016 tCO2e, roughly equal to Kuwait's annual emissions, or the combined yearly output of the world's 84 lowest-emitting nations. Otu-Larbi warned the figures will only worsen.

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"We expect emissions to increase rapidly as the conflict proceeds, mainly due to the speed at which oil facilities are being targeted at an alarming rate," he told The Guardian.

A down payment on a hotter planet

Bigger offered a blunt verdict on what the conflict means for the planet. "Every missile strike is another down payment on a hotter, more unstable planet, and none of it makes anyone safer. Every refinery fire and tanker strike is a reminder that fossil-fuelled geopolitics is incompatible with a livable planet," he said.

Scientists estimate that as of mid-2024, humanity had roughly 130 billion tonnes of CO2 left to emit while retaining a 50 per cent chance of keeping warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius, a budget that will be exhausted by 2028 at the current rate. On the other hand, Israel's ongoing war on Gaza has separately generated an estimated 33 million tonnes of CO2e, according to research published in the journal One Earth.