Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah’s death leaves Iran with a serious dilemma

Iran is struggling to hold on to its influence in the region after Israel “eliminated” Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of its main ally Hezbollah. His death is a big blow not only to Hezbollah but also to Iran, which has been providing arms and money to the group for the past few decades. Iran had been increasing its circle of influence in the region by supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and other militant groups.

The supreme leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has vowed that Nasrallah’s death “will not be in vain”. Mohammad Reza, Iran’s First Vice-President, has said the killing of the Hezbollah chief would “bring about Israel’s destruction”.

Iran's dilemma

However, despite these statements promising revenge, Iran is now faced with “a serious dilemma”, according to analyst Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group, quoted by AFP. “His killing has not altered the fact that Iran still does not want to get directly engaged in the ongoing conflict,” said Vaez.

He said Iran has every interest in trying to preserve whatever remains of Hezbollah. He said Hezbollah is Iran’s shield. Vaez also felt that Iran would not give up overnight on almost 40 years of in this project just because a dozen people were eliminated.

But Vaez also believes that Iran would find it very difficult to communicate with Hezbollah after the damage to its pagers and walkie-talkies in the recent explosions. He wonders whether Iran is “unwilling or unable to take action”. Vaez feels that Iran is hoping that Hezbollah will recover and strike back at Israel to show that it is still a fighting force even after the death of Nasrallah and other leaders.

Also Read: Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah killed in airstrike: Israel

Iran’s economic challenges

Another analyst, Mehdi Zakerian, a Teheran-based international relations professor, told AFP the resistance front supported by Iran “was not only unable to contain Israel, but it also suffered serious blows”.

Zakerian said it would be no small feat for Iran to rebuild Hezbollah amid its increasing economic challenges. He said if Iran tried to reconstruct Lebanon or re-equip Hezbollah, it would exacerbate the economic crisis it faced at home.

The international sanctions imposed on Iran have led to rising inflation, high unemployment, and severe devaluation of its currency.

A difficult decision

The difficult decision that Iran has to make is whether to continue supporting the militant groups when it is itself facing serious economic challenges.

“Iran cannot abandon Hezbollah, because in that case, it would also lose its other allies,” said Zakerian.

And making things more difficult for Iran, Israel’s military has vowed to prevent Iran from supplying Hezbollah with weapons through Beirut airport, saying its fighter planes were patrolling the skies above the Lebanon capital.

Also Read: Who is Hassan Nasrallah? Hezbollah’s firebrand chief Israel claims to have neutralised

Hezbollah confirms Nasrallah’s death

Hezbollah on Saturday (September 28) confirmed that its leader Hassan Nasrallah was dead after an Israeli airstrike in the Lebanese capital Beirut’s southern suburbs the previous day.

The body of Nasrallah was recovered from the site of the attack, and the cause of death appeared to be “blunt trauma from the force of the blast”, reported Reuters.

1000 dead in Lebanon

Lebanon has said that more than 1,000 people have died and almost 6,000 injured after Israel increased the intensity of its attacks against Hezbollah in the country for the past two weeks or so. The health ministry claimed that Israeli strikes on Sunday (September 29) in the southern city of Sidon and other parts of the country resulted in the deaths of 105 people and injured about 360 others.

Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu said his country will continue to attack Lebanon until the northern areas of Israel were safe for its residents to return to their homes.