Explained: Why resumption of patrolling by India along LAC with China may not be easy

Following an agreement to put an end to the stalemate between the armies of the two nations in eastern Ladakh, India and China have begun the disengagement process at two friction points along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), according to sources.

“Five tents on each side in the Demchok area and half of the temporary structures in Depsang have been dismantled. Indian soldiers are moving back to the west side of the Charding Nala, while Chinese soldiers retreat to the east side,” India Today quoted sources as saying.

There are about 10 to 12 temporary structures and around 12 tents on both sides, all of which are set to be removed. Once all tents and temporary structures have been fully removed, a joint verification process will begin, both on the ground and through aerial surveys.

Also Read: Modi-Xi meeting, its implications: Can India tame the Chinese dragon?

The Chinese army reduced the number of their vehicles in the area, and the Indian army also withdrew some troops in the area. After this process is completed, patrolling is expected to resume in Depsang and Demchok within the next 4-5 days, sources added.

In view of the fresh agreement between the two countries, India plans to resume patrolling along the LAC. However, it may not be as easy to implement on the ground. The Federal takes you through the intricacies involved in the process.

What are the hurdles that India may face in resumption of patrolling along the LAC with China?

India’s 3,488-km border with China is not clearly demarcated and there is no mutually agreed LAC along certain stretches.

India-China border is divided into three sectors: Western Sector, Middle Sector and Eastern Sector. “The border is not fully demarcated and the process of clarifying and confirming the Line of Actual Control is in progress. The area is characterised by high altitude terrain and thick habitation which have resulted in inadequate development of infrastructure in these regions,” according to an MHA statement.

“Many places in eastern Ladakh became disputed over time as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) intruded into areas claimed by India or vice versa. While the LAC is not well defined, out of the total 65 defined patrolling points (PPs), about 11 have been disputed since May 2020,” says a report in The Indian Express.

The new agreement suggests that the PLA will not block Indian troops from the bottleneck and they can now patrol up to PPs 10 to 13, which is quite unlikely given the PLA, in the last four years, has built a huge infrastructure in the Depsang plains, said the report. Recent high-resolution satellite imagery shows a colossal amount of new settlements in the Pangong area. It is unlikely that the Chinese will dismantle their defensive/offensive positions set up after 2020, it added.

What are the contours of the agreement reached between India and China?

It is learnt that the two sides have agreed to restore patrolling rights to each other in the Depsang Plains and Demchok region, which means that Indian troops can patrol up to patrolling point (PP) 10 to 13 in the Depsang Plains, and in Charding nullah of Demchok.

India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri shared details of the pact on patrolling arrangements. “In Demchok and Depsang, patrolling and grazing activities will resume as it was pre-May 2020…In the pending areas under discussion, patrolling and indeed grazing activities, wherever applicable, will revert to the situation as it obtained in 2020,” Misri said in Kazan on Tuesday.

Misri said he hoped the arrangements can “prevent the kind of clashes that occurred earlier in some areas near the LAC”, referring to the Galwan clashes of 2020, in which 20 Indian troops including a Colonel-rank officer and at least four Chinese soldiers were killed.

Also Watch: Modi-Xi talks: High on optics, low on substance?

He clarified the sequence of the “three Ds”: “We are focused on disengagement first, and discussions on de-escalation and de-induction will happen at the appropriate time.”

Misri said that the “endorsement” of the agreement by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping “should certainly lead to an easing of the situation along the LAC”. These steps have “set the process in motion” for bringing relations back to a normal path, and it is necessary for both sides to continue on this path, he said.

Why are India’s strategic circles cautious about the new agreement between the two nations?

The border pact has set the ball rolling for initiating the process of trust-building between the two neigbours. However, even if both the sides remain firm in their commitment, it will be at least a couple of years before the entire three-step process of disengagement, de-escalation, and de-induction of troops is completed, and ties return to normal.

Already a few divergences have emerged after the much-talked about Modi-Xi bilateral meet.

The Indian readout said the PM hailed “the recent agreement for complete disengagement and resolution of issues that arose in 2020 in the India-China border areas”. However, the Chinese statement only said the two leaders “commended the important progress the two sides had…made…on resolving the relevant issues in the border areas”.

About the next steps after the leaders’ meetings, the Indian readout specifically said that “the Special Representatives on the India-China boundary question will meet at an early date…to explore a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable solution to the boundary question.”

On the other hand, the Chinese readout said the two sides had “agreed on holding talks between their foreign ministers and officials at various levels to bring the relationship back to sound and steady development at an early date”.

Which are the major friction points between India and China along the LAC?

There are five major friction points between India and China along the Line of Actual Control, most of which are disputed areas where Indian and Chinese soldiers fought in the 1962 war. Among these points are:

Galwan: The Galwan river valley, with its harsh climate and high altitude terrain, lies along the western sector of the LAC and close to Aksai Chin, a disputed area claimed by India but controlled by China.

In a major escalation along the Line of Actual Control, Indian and Chinese troops clashed in the Galwan Valley on June 15, 2020. This incident was the first deadly confrontation in the region since 1975 and resulted in casualties on both sides. While 20 Indian soldiers died in the clash, there are varying claims regarding the number of Chinese casualties. Border infrastructure developments and differing perceptions of the LAC had triggered the clash.

Also Read: BRICS: Modi, Xi welcome patrolling pact at Ladakh; agree on mending bilateral ties

Demchok: Demchok is split by the LAC. India controls the western part. The eastern side is under the control of China, which also claims the western part. The dispute hinges on historical treaties and the precise alignment of the LAC along the Charding Nullah.

Pangong: About 50 per cent of Pangong Lake area is in Tibet (under Chinese control), 40 per cent in Ladakh and 10 per cent is disputed. Discrepancies in LAC perceptions lead to military standoffs and buffer zones, with ongoing construction and strategic positioning reflecting the tensions and claims by both nations.

Hot Springs: Located near Gogra Post, the Hot Springs area is significant for India due to its strategic location which facilitates surveillance over LAC. India's control over this region enhances its defence posture, providing vantage points for monitoring movements in Aksai Chin, thus playing a crucial role in border security dynamics.

Depsang: Depsang plains are critical for India due to their strategic access to the Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO) airstrip and the Darbuk-Shyok-DBO road. Control over Depsang prevents Chinese forces from threatening these vital logistics lines, making it essential for India's northern border defence and military mobility.

What infrastructure has been built by both the countries along the LAC?

In the eastern sector, China has a 400-km Lhasa to Ngiti black topped road. It has also completed the 1,118 km Qinghai-Tibet railway line.

While most of the Chinese roads are just a few metres away from the LAC, Indian roads are kilometres away from the LAC, the farthest being Lemiken in Eastern Arunachal Pradesh, which is 65 kilometres from the LAC.

Reports also suggest that as part of the process of ramping up the infrastructure along the borders, China has constructed over 10 helipads near the LAC. These will help China ensure rapid deployment and logistical support for its troops in the forward region.

“In 2022, China continued to develop military infrastructure along the LAC. These improvements include underground storage facilities near Doklam, new roads in all three sectors of the LAC, new villages in disputed areas in neighboring Bhutan, a second bridge over Pangong Lake, a dual-purpose airport near the center sector, and multiple helipads,” said a Pentagon report last year.

Also Read: As cold air blows from the West, Modi turns to China for warmth

As far as India is concerned, the pace of border infrastructure construction in the Ladakh region, as well as in the Northeast has gone up exponentially since 2020. In the last four years, significant progress in the construction of roads, bridges, habitat, tunnel, ammunition depots among other infrastructure work have been carried out in these regions to enable faster troop mobility to the LAC in case of an operational situation. This is also reflected in the works budget allocated to the BRO this fiscal, which saw a 30 per cent hike from last year to Rs 6,500 crore this year.

However, India’s proposed rail link to Sikkim in the Eastern sector is progressing at a snail’s pace. Poor mobile connectivity in the bordering areas of Arunachal Pradesh is another major infrastructure bottleneck. In April 2023, the Arunachal Pradesh government launched 254 new 4G mobile towers along the LAC out of 2,605 towers it plans to install to adequately cover the bordering areas.