Maharashtra polls 2024: A look at the high-stakes election battle
Complexities within MVA and Mayahuti alliances pose unique challenges for both sides; maintaining unity and stemming defections appears to be top priority
Maharashtra, India’s wealthiest state, is gearing up for a high-stakes political battle as it heads for Assembly polls on November 20. With alliances fractured and rivalries flaring, the election dynamics are looking more complex and unpredictable than ever.
In a recent episode of The Federal's exclusive YouTube program Talking Sense with Srini, Editor-in-Chief S Srinivasan dissected the main factors that could shape the outcome of this contest and offered insights into the unique challenges that each political faction faces.
Split of alliances and loyalties
Maharashtra’s political landscape has become increasingly fractured, with two major coalitions — the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance — vying for influence.
The MVA is an alliance of the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray faction), Congress, and the NCP (SP) led by Sharad Pawar. The Mahayuti comprises the BJP, the faction of the Shiv Sena led by Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction.
The complexities within these alliances pose a unique challenge for both sides, as each tries to maintain unity and avoid further defections.
Maharashtra has a longstanding history of political rebellion, and this election season has already seen significant discontent among party members who feel sidelined. How well these alliances hold together at the grassroots level could significantly impact the vote.
Will ‘Modi magic’ work?
The BJP has recently witnessed success in states like Haryana, spurred by what some political analysts term the “Modi magic”.
However, replicating this in Maharashtra may prove difficult. Maharashtra’s politics is shaped by region-specific issues, and voting patterns vary across its six distinct regions.
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Srinivasan noted that the state’s complex caste dynamics, with the Maratha community holding considerable sway in certain regions, could dilute the BJP’s appeal, particularly given the party’s focus on consolidating OBC votes.
Further complicating matters for the BJP is its reliance on allies like the Shinde-led Shiv Sena faction and Ajit Pawar's NCP faction, whose own recent electoral performances were lacklustre. It leaves one wondering whether these alliances are a liability rather than an asset for the BJP.
Key election issues
The Maratha reservation issue remains a sensitive and polarising topic. The community, which wields significant influence in Maharashtra, has long demanded greater rights and representation.
While the BJP has made inroads among OBC voters, many Marathas view the party’s stance on reservation as unfavourable. Analysts suggest that this could give the MVA an edge in regions with high Maratha population, especially after the recent withdrawal of Maratha leader Manoj Jarange-Patil from the electoral arena, Srinivasan noted.
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Welfare schemes, particularly those targeting women, are also likely to play a significant role in the election. The Shinde-led government’s “Ladki Behan Yojana” for women has shown promise, similar to successful schemes in Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.
Voter turnout among women, historically low, has seen a steady increase, and parties are increasingly aware of the need to address their issues. The Ladki Behan scheme could resonate with women voters and potentially offset some of the anti-incumbency sentiment directed toward the Mahayuti government.
Sharad Pawar’s clout
Despite a split in the NCP, Sharad Pawar remains a formidable figure in Maharashtra politics. With his daughter Supriya Sule poised for a prominent role, this election is seen as a pivotal moment for Pawar’s political legacy.
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The split with his nephew Ajit Pawar has deepened the division within the family, Srinivasan said, but emphasised that Sharad Pawar’s experience and tactical acumen could still prove advantageous for the MVA, especially if he manages to keep his faction’s vote base intact.
Another narrative shaping the election is the Maharashtra versus Gujarat discourse, stoked by Uddhav Thackeray. The former Chief Minister has accused the BJP of diverting investment and resources from Maharashtra to Gujarat.
An unpredictable election
This rhetoric, tapping into regional pride and Maratha identity, aims to galvanise voters who feel that Maharashtra’s interests are being compromised. While it’s uncertain how effective this narrative will be, it reflects the enduring appeal of identity politics in Maharashtra.
With numerous factors in play, the Maharashtra assembly election promises to be a fiercely contested and unpredictable affair, said Srinivasan.
The BJP’s reliance on alliance partners, the Maratha reservation issue, and the appeal of welfare schemes to women voters will be decisive elements. As both MVA and Mahayuti alliances navigate internal complexities and attempt to maintain cohesion, the final outcome remains uncertain, he added.
(The content above has been generated using a Gen AI model fine-tuned to The Federal’s proprietary data. To ensure accuracy, quality, and editorial integrity, we employ a Human-In-The-Loop (HITLO) process — while AI assists in creating the initial draft, our experienced editorial team carefully reviews, edits, and refines the content before publication. At The Federal, we combine the efficiency of AI with the expertise of human editors to deliver reliable and insightful journalism.)
