Kerala LS poll results: Anti-incumbency factor, UDF’s dream run, and Suresh Gopi's historic win

When Suresh Gopi joined the BJP in 2016, it was unlikely anyone foresaw him as a prominent leader of the saffron party in Kerala. However, after being nominated to the Rajya Sabha, he made a mark for himself by extending his charitable work through his parliamentary role and developing his own support base.

Now, by winning the Thrissur Lok Sabha seat and securing the first-ever Lok Sabha berth for the BJP from Kerala, the 66-year-old “action hero” of Malayalam cinema has become an icon for the Hindu nationalist party in Kerala.

‘Blessings of the people of Thrissur’

Suresh Gopi held a consistent lead right from the beginning of the counting process, securing a total of 4,12,338 votes out of the 10,90,876 votes cast. This put him significantly ahead of his closest competitor, VS Sunil Kumar from the CPI, by a margin of 74,686 votes, and relegated the incumbent Congress candidate to third place. K. Muraleedharan, the Congress nominee and former KPCC president, suffered defeat due to the overwhelming performance of the actor-turned-politician in Thrissur.

“This is the blessings of the people of Thrissur whom I consider as subjects as well as God,” said Suresh Gopi in his characteristic style in a softly-modulated tone. “This victory feels even better than when I won the national award for the film Kaliyattam.”

Erosion in Congress vote base in Thrissur

“We have not lost our base votes, that’s intact, but the Congress will have to explain about the erosion in their vote base,” said VS Sunil Kumar the CPI candidate. “In such a conducive political atmosphere when they registered a landslide victory in the state, they have lost more than a lakh votes. I am not interested in creating a controversy though.”

The Congress polled around 86,000 votes lower this time than their previous tally while Sunil Kumar increased his tally by 16,000 votes. Interestingly, it should be noted that there was a considerable increase of more than 40,000 votes in the constituency despite a lesser voter turnout this time.

LDF’s dismal show

The lesser voter turnout across the state, however, did not help the LDF as they could not better their dismal show of winning only one seat last time. In 2019, while Alappuzha turned out to be a glimmer of hope for the CPI(M), this time the Minister for Devaswom Affairs K Radhakrishnan won the Alathur seat.

Thumping victories for UDF

Apart from the shocking defeat in Thrissur, the UDF had a dream run across the state increasing their vote share considerably, making dents into LDF’s vote bank. Most of their candidates recorded thumping victories as the Left fortresses fell like a pack of cards.

Though he fell short of his 2019 record, Rahul Gandhi from Wayanad secured a majority of 3,64,422 votes. ET Mohammed Basheer of IUML also secured a majority of more than three lakhs in Malappuram, while Hibi Eaded had a margin of over two and a half lakhs in Ernakulam.

Except for Adoor Prakash in Attingal who just managed to win with a wafer-thin majority of 1,708 votes and Kodikkunnil Suresh in Mavelikkara who edged past CPI’s CA Arunkumar by just over 10,000 votes, every other UDF candidate in the state has recorded very impressive figures. Most of them bettered the record set in 2019 as well.

Anti-incumbency major factor

Anti-incumbency was the major factor that contributed to the undoing of the LDF in Kerala this time. Despite having won back-to-back elections in 2021, Pinarayi Vijayan’s second term has turned out to be the toughest of his time in office.

The welfare schemes, including the pension for the vulnerable sections, were affected due to the financial crisis which the state has been going through. There were delays in salary disbursement in the Kerala state road transport corporation as well, making a major chunk of the workforce anti-establishment.

The allegations of nepotism and corruption involving the chief minister’s daughter too might have added insult to injury. The functioning of the Police department is another area where the government faces a lot of allegations.

“Anti-incumbency against both the state and union governments were the key factors in this election. This, coupled with our organisational prowess, proved crucial. If the chief minister has an iota of integrity left in him, he should tender his resignation right now,” said K Sudhakaran, the president of KPCC who recorded a thumping win in Kannur constituency.

CPI(M) accepts defeat

On the other hand, the CPI(M) was very cautious in the choice of words for their response to the outcome of the election.

“We accept the defeat and will introspect into it to make necessary changes in our functioning,” said the CPI(M) state secretariat in a statement after the declaration of results. “This is not the first time that we are facing such huge defeats, but we have come back strongly in the past.”

Minority votes – another crucial factor

The minority votes turned out to be another crucial factor in the resounding victory of the UDF.

The Muslim community, which had drifted away from the Congress, in particular, in the last couple of elections, especially in the 2021 assembly elections, seems to have come back, giving their candidates huge margins in the minority-dominated areas. The huge margin of victories in Kasargod, Kannur, Vadakara, Kozhikode, Palakkad, Malappuram, Ponnani, and even Shashi Tharoor’s victory in Thiruvananthapuram, where he edged past Rajeev Chandrasekhar’s stiff challenge only because of the support of the coastal belt, underscores this observation.

Even though the CPI(M) and the LDF have been steadfast in championing the minority causes ranging from the Gaza attack to the anti-CAA protests, the community seems to have backed the Congress this time. The anti-incumbency might have over-shadowed the political correctness shown by the left parties this time.

Rise in BJP’s vote share to 16%

The open pro-minority stance taken by the left parties in issues such as CAA and the Palestine genocide might have estranged the non-Muslim floating voters from them as well. Apart from the erosion of their own vote base, the alarming rise in the BJP votes must be another cause for concern for the LDF as the BJP’s vote share has crossed 16 per cent this time.

Whatever the cause might be, there is a lot to be introspected and rectified as far as the Left parties are concerned, before the by-elections necessitated by the victories of Shafi Parambil and K Radhakrishnan. Wayanad also will see a by-election if Rahul Gandhi decides to retain his Rae Bareli seat this time.