Kerala Lok Sabha elections: UDF happy, BJP buoyant, LDF in shock

CPI(M) workers in Ponnani in Kerala were astonished as the results of the Lok Sabha elections unfolded. Not many in the LDF camp had anticipated that its candidate KS Hamza, a former IUML leader who parted ways with his party months earlier, could defeat the UDF’s Abdussamad Samadani. But they had hoped for a turnaround banking on the differences within the Sunni Muslim organization, Samastha.

Not only did the election results leave them high and dry, with Samadani securing victory by more than 2 lakh votes, but the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) also made inroads into territories where it had never previously gained ground.

“Perumpadappu panchayat has historically been an area where the BJP had never won a ward until now. Surprisingly, in this election, they surpassed our candidate in some wards, which calls for serious introspection,” said PK Khaleemudheen, a CPI(M) leader and a member of the Calicut University syndicate.

Thrissur feat

In the Thrissur constituency, where BJP’s Suresh Gopi achieved the party’s first-ever Lok Sabha victory in the state, six out of seven Assembly segments followed suit, providing the actor a crucial lead. Sunil Kumar was pushed to the second place. In Guruvayoor, it was the UDF’s K Muraleedharan who secured the first position.

A closer examination of the Election Commission’s voting data would reveal some intriguing facts. In the Assembly segments where NDA candidates experienced significant gains, with more than a 5 per cent swing in votes, 24 of them saw a decrease in the vote share of the Left Democratic Front (LDF). More interestingly, in 30 segments, the vote share of the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) also diminished.

LDF losses

In five Assembly segments, the LDF lost over 10 per cent of votes compared to the 2019 general elections. Among these, three (Cherthala -- 10.9 per cent, Alappuzha -- 10.8 per cent and Ambalappuzha -- 10.3 per cent) are in the Alappuzha Lok Sabha constituency where the BJP’s Sobha Surendran secured nearly 30 per cent of the votes, despite coming third after AICC general secretary KC Venugopal and CPI(M)’s sitting MP AM Arif.

Notably, Arif was one of the MPs who had been in the news for his consistent and staunch stance against the anti-minority policies of the Union government, which formed a major part of his campaign.

Even though the UDF won the majority of seats without suffering a huge dent in its voter base, it experienced a loss of more than 10 per cent of votes in 12 assembly segments, compared to the five segments for the LDF. However, this trend did not reflect in the overall results because minority votes polarized and consolidated in favour of the UDF this time.

NDA gains

Most of these segments fell under the Alathur constituency, where the UDF’s Remya Haridas lost to CPI(M)’s state minister K Radhakrishnan. The segments included Alathur (18.3 per cent), Tharoor (17.8 per cent), Nenmara (14.3 per cent), Chelakkara (13.6 per cent), Kunnamkulam (10.4 per cent) and Wadakkanchery (10.2 per cent).

Interestingly, the corresponding increase in vote share went to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in this constituency. The erosion of votes from the UDF to the NDA caused Remya Haridas to be defeated by a margin of over 20,000 votes.

Congress in soup

In the Thrissur constituency, the UDF experienced significant vote erosion in several areas: Thrissur (13.2 per cent), Ollur (11.4 per cent), Puthukkad (9.2 per cent), Manalur (9.1 per cent), Irinjalakkuda (8.4 per cent) and Guruvayur (7.5 per cent). These votes were directly transferred to the BJP candidate Suresh Gopi. Thrissur and Ollur, where the Christian community form a major portion of the electorate, have typically seen LDF candidates win in Assembly elections.

However, since 2006, these areas have been UDF strongholds due to their influence among the Christian population. Suresh Gopi’s inroads into these areas are a serious concern for the Congress in the immediate future. Thrissur and Ollur, where the Christian community for a major portion of the electorate, have typically seen UDF domination in the Lok Sabha polls despite having elected LDF candidates to the Assembly.

Internal feud

These segments which are traditionally UDF strongholds due to the front’s influence among the Christian population, have been electing LDF candidates since 2006 with an exception of 2011. Suresh Gopi’s inroads into these areas are a serious concern for the Congress in the immediate future.

The differences within the Congress party resulted in local getting into physical fights at the district Congress committee office leaving a DCC secretary who is a Muraleedharan loyalist injured.

Wayanad woes

In Rahul Gandhi’s Wayanad constituency, the UDF suffered a vote erosion of 11.9 per cent in the Sultan Battery segment while BJP state president K Surendran increased his tally by 11.7 per cent. CPI’s Annie Raja also saw an increase in her share by 1.6 per cent. Sultan Battery, named after Tipu Sultan’s battery, is a UDF bastion and became controversial when K Surendran declared that the party would rename it Ganapati Vattom (Ganesh Circle).

Even though the CPI(M) state secretariat issued a statement after the election results saying the party would introspect and make amendments, there has been no official acknowledgment of the vote erosion the party has faced. On the contrary, the party state secretary claimed that the LDF has not lost its base and the drop in the vote share was just 1 per cent, attributing the BJP’s rise to a shift in UDF votes.

LDF-UDF crossfire

“There has been a rise in the BJP’s vote tally in the state contrary due to the national mood. We will study how it happened and make amendments,” said EP Jayarajan, the LDF convenor.

On the other hand, UDF leaders allege that the surge in the BJP’s vote share is due to a tacit understanding with the LDF. They urge the media to compare the vote share with the last Assembly elections to highlight the significant drop in the LDF’s vote base.

“It’s a fact that we were pushed to the third spot and the BJP won the Thrissur seat. It should be noted that the LDF has suffered a huge loss in vote base, indicative of CPI(M)’s vote-sharing arrangement with the BJP. They have lost more than 1.5 lakh votes across the constituency since the last Assembly elections,” said Jose Valloor, the Thrissur district president of the Congress.

Conspiracy theory

The UDF state leadership also maintains the theory that CPI(M) cadres cross-voted for the BJP though this has not convinced K Muraleedharan, the losing candidate. After the results were announced, Muraleedharan told the media that he would like to take a break from public life. The Congress leadership is confident it can convince him to return to active politics.

The BJP on the other hand is in an upbeat mood with Suresh Gopi all set to become a minister in the Narendra Modi cabinet. “This time it’s not just a shift in vote share, but the change is ideological. We have made inroads into the CPI(M) strongholds in Kannur of North Kerala to Attingal in the South. This is the beginning of a new era of politics in Kerala,” said K Surendran, the party’s state unit president.

LDF stunned

The LDF camp is understandably in a lull, and many party cadres want the party to engage in serious introspection and make significant policy changes. A section within the party believes that the over-reliance on minority issues contributed to their electoral defeat. This aspect will be a major topic of discussion in the upcoming party forum meetings, a senior party leader told The Federal.

However, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan was in no mood for open introspection as he harshly criticised comments made by Geevarghese Mar Coorilos, former Metropolitan of Niranam Diocese of the Jacobite Syrian Christian Church. Reacting to the priest’s Facebook post about the LDF’s setback, the chief minister remarked that Geevarghese Mar Coorilos’ words suggest that "there might be idiots among the priests" too.

Angry Vijayan

In his Facebook post, Geevarghese Mar Coorilos had stated that the main reason for the LDF’s humiliating defeat was anti-incumbency. He warned that if the LDF fails to learn from the continuous shock treatment given by the people, they might face the same fate as the Left in West Bengal and Tripura.