Kerala: BJP records big surge in vote share; crosses 30% mark in 3 constituencies

BJP's growing vote share in Kerala

The National Democractic Alliance’s increase in vote share to 19.23 per cent (16.68 per cent for BJP and 2.55 per cent for BDJS) and crossing the 20 per cent mark in 10 out of 20 constituencies is noteworthy. It managed to secure 37.8 per cent of the votes in Thrissur where Suresh Gopi registered their first-ever win in the state.

Notably, Rajeev Chandrasekhar, too, garnered a significant 35.52 per cent of the votes in Thiruvananthapuram and finished second. Even though Union minister V Muralidharan finished third in Attingal, where the contest went to the wire with UDF’s Adoor Prakash edging out CPI(M) leader V Joy by 684 votes, he secured 31.64 per cent of the votes.

BJP candidates crossed the 25 per cent vote share mark in Alappuzha and Pathanamthitta where Sobha Surendran got 28.3 per cent and Anil Antony 25.29 per cent respectively of the votes polled.

In five other constituencies, the NDA candidates got around 20 per cent of the total votes. (In Palakkad, it was 24.31 per cent, Kottayam 19.74 per cent, Kasargod 19.73 per cent, Alathur 18.97 per cent and Kollam 17.83 per cent).

Major milestone

Crossing the 30 per cent vote share mark in three constituencies is a major milestone for the BJP in Kerala. It suggests that in certain pockets, the party is gaining considerable traction, which may translate into more seats in future elections if the trend continues.

A quick scan of the Election Commission's data reveals that the LDF has been the most affected by the BJP/NDA’s gains. However, a closer examination shows that the Congress' vote base too has also significantly declined.

The substantial support from minorities this time is compensating for that loss. This indicates a growing acceptance or support base for the BJP in a state where it historically had minimal presence.

Led in assembly segments

Interestingly, based on the vote share from the recent Lok Sabha elections, the NDA has led in 11 of the 140 assembly segments in a state where they currently have no MLAs.

The NDA candidates came first in Nemom, Vattiyoorkavu, and Kazhakkoottam in the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha constituency, as well as in Attingal and Kattakkada in Attingal, and Manaloor, Nattika, Ollur, and Irinjalakkuda and Puthukkad in Thrissur constituency which all have LDF MLAs at present.

Besides, the BJP secured second place in eight Assembly segments. According to the trends in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the UDF led in 110 Assembly segments, while the LDF was ahead in 19 segments.

Comparatively, in 2019, the UDF was leading in 123 segments.

Reason for surge

Effective campaigning and ground-level work by the BJP coupled with a reflection of the anticipated broader national trend of increasing support for the BJP may have contributed to this surge.

Specific local issues where the BJP’s stance may have resonated with voters also helped, especially in Thrissur, where Suresh Gopi was in the forefront of the protests against the Karuvannur co-operative bank fraud allegedly involving CPI(M) leaders.

For instance, Suresh Gopi had assembled a substantial team of professionals and RSS cadres to support his campaign in the constituency since 2019-20. They developed a multi-faceted strategy, leveraging both the benefits of central government schemes and Gopi's charitable initiatives.

“We can say that the erosion in UDF votes did the trick for Suresh Gopi this time, but the fact is that we have also lost some ground, especially in segments like Nattika, Guruvayoor, and Puthukkad,” said K V Abdulkhader, CPI(M) leader and former MLA of Guruvayoor.

In the other four Assembly segments, the erosion in UDF votes was colossal which caused K Muralidharan to end up in third position.

As for Union ministers Rajeev Chandrasekhar and V Muraleedharan, they spent considerable time in Thiruvananthapuram district, engaging with the public and promoting centrally aided projects, particularly at Thiruvananthapuram and Attingal constituencies. Interestingly, both of these ministers are not Thiruvananthapuram natives but hail from northern Kerala and have been assigned as part of their political strategy.

“These ministers were regulars in the constituencies they contested from this time, having been actively engaged for at least three years. They interacted with local organisations and institutions more frequently than the local MLAs,” said an I&B official on condition of anonymity.

Sobha Surendra’s rise in Alappuzha is another concerning factor, as the vote base she has garnered correlates directly with the erosion of the Hindu vote base for the Left parties and the Congress.

K C Venugopal successfully attracted minority votes this time, effectively defeating the sitting MP A M Arif of the CPI(M). Additionally, the factional infighting within the local CPI(M) is contributing to the increase in BJP votes in this constituency.

Fragmented political landscape

The surge in BJP’s vote share may be at the expense of the traditional players like the LDF and UDF, potentially leading to a more fragmented political landscape in Kerala. If this trend continues, it could result in a more competitive political environment in Kerala, with the BJP emerging as a significant player. This may also push other parties to reassess and re-strategise their approach to retain or regain their voter base.

Overall, while the BJP's seat count may not yet reflect a massive win, the increase in vote share is a clear indicator of shifting political currents in Kerala. It will be interesting to see how this develops in the upcoming elections and what strategies other parties will employ in response.