Jharkhand Assembly polls 2024: 5 key issues dominating the election

This year has been quite dramatic for the tribal-dominated state of Jharkhand. It began with the dramatic questioning and arrest of Chief Minister Hemant Soren, who is also the working president of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), a party that played a key role in achieving separate statehood for Jharkhand after its split from Bihar in 2000.

Though the JMM retained power in the state after Hemant’s arrest by the Enforcement Directorate in a money-laundering case, with senior leader Champai Soren taking over as chief minister, Hemant’s return from jail on bail after five months sparked fresh trouble within the party, as Champai felt humiliated upon being unceremoniously told to vacate the chief minister’s chair for him.

So now, with Champai in the BJP and the latter desperately trying to make a dent in the JMM’s tribal vote base, the two-phase Jharkhand Assembly election in November 13 and 20 will be quite interesting to watch. Here are some of the key factors that the rival parties will try to exploit in the Jharkhand assembly polls.

1. Bangladeshi “infiltration”

Of the 81 seats in the Jharkhand Assembly, 28 are reserved for Scheduled Tribes (ST), almost all of which were won by the JMM-Congress alliance in the 2019 Assembly polls. The BJP, which emerged as the single largest party in terms of vote share, though it could not translate it to seats in comparison, is keenly eyeing those tribal seats this time. However, even in the general elections earlier this year, the BJP failed to win any of the five tribal-dominated Lok Sabha seats in Jharkhand.

One of the major issues the saffron party has repeatedly raked up throughout its poll campaigning in Jharkhand is that of Bangladeshi and Rohingya “infiltration”. Senior BJP leaders, including the top bosses, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, have constantly harped on how the tribal population in Santhal Parganas and Kolhan region is declining due to this “infiltration”, which is changing the demography of the region.

Modi has even accused the JMM and the Congress of harbouring the illegal immigrants for votes and the infiltrators of taking over land and control of panchayats. Even the ED last month lodged a money-laundering case over suspected trafficking of some Bangladeshi women into Jharkhand.

The BJP’s claims gained further traction as the Jharkhand High Court in August asked the state to identify such infiltrators. Currently, the court has reserved its judgment as a high-level fact-finding committee has been formed for the purpose.

Also read: Jharkhand: Why JMM has taken the gamble to bring Hemant back as CM ahead of polls

2. Corruption charges against Hemant government

Hemant’s arrest in the money-laundering case related to a land deal in January can emerge as a trump card for either the BJP or the JMM. While the Hemant camp has been trying to drum up support with the argument that he has been victimised and that the BJP is anti-tribal, the saffron party has been focusing the spotlight on his alleged corrupt ways.

Not only Hemant, another minister in his Cabinet, the Congress’s Alamgir Alam was also arrested by the ED earlier this year in connection with an alleged “tender scam”. The agency found Rs 35 crore in raids and the court later refused to grant him bail. The ED has claimed that Khan extorted over Rs 50 crore in cut money.

The BJP has been playing up these corruption cases in the run-up to the assembly polls, while the JMM has been seeking public sympathy for Hemant. The question is, who can convince the people better.

3. Champai’s rebellion and rift in JMM

Champai Soren was a very senior leader in the JMM who played a principal role in the statehood movement alongside Hemant’s father and party chief Shibu Soren. The raw deal he got in the party did not go down well with several JMM leaders — and possibly among the general public, especially the tribal belt where he is known to enjoy immense popularity.

The “Tiger of Jharkhand”, as Champai is popularly called, is a five-term MLA from Saraikela, which he will be contesting for the BJP this time. While the JMM took the gamble of bringing Hemant back to the CM’s seat before the assembly polls, believing that his mass appeal would work better than Champai’s tribal appeal, the repercussions of that decision may well backfire for the party.

It is a fact that the JMM and the Congress hold sway over only the tribal-dominated regions of Jharkhand, and if the recent Lok Sabha election results are anything to go by, the BJP has only strengthened its hold over the non-tribal regions of the state. The INDIA bloc, of which both Congress and JMM are a part, failed to bag a single general category or Schedule Caste-reserved constituency. The BJP won eight of those while its ally, the AJSU, won one.

Even worse, the Lok Sabha poll results showed a lead for the BJP across 46 Assembly segments of the state, while the JMM and the Congress led in only 15 and 14 segments, respectively. In such circumstances, a split in the tribal votes — which Champai’s switch is very likely to do — may prove extremely costly for the JMM-Congress alliance.

Besides, it remains to be seen whether the unhappiness of INDIA bloc partner RJD over seat-sharing has any impact on the alliance's prospects.

Also read: Bangladesh lodges protest against Amit Shah's 'infiltrators' remark at Jharkhand rally

4. Populist schemes

While the BJP has promised three populist schemes for the state in its brief manifesto, a contest has emerged over who can provide women with more cash in hand.

Earlier this year, the JMM-led government launched the Mukhyamantri Maiya Samman Yojana, which promised to provide eligible women in the 20–50 age group with Rs 1,000 per month. However, the age group was later expanded to 18 to 50 years.

However, as part of its manifesto, the BJP announced the Gogo-Didi Yojana, which promises to provide eligible women with Rs 2,100 per month. Promptly, the Jharkhand government has hiked the amount under Mukhyamantri Maiya Samman Yojana to Rs 2,500, applicable from December.

However, the BJP has promised other populist schemes too. All families will get an LPG cylinder for Rs 500 and two free cylinders per year during as many festivals. Plus, unemployed graduate and postgraduate youths will receive Rs 2,000 per month for two years.

The BJP has also promised to provide 5 lakh employment opportunities in five years and fill up 2,87,000 vacant government posts in a timely manner.

It remains to be seen whose schemes can impress the people better.

5. Centre vs state

The JMM has often blamed the BJP-led Centre for not releasing funds due to Jharkhand. Last week, Hemant wrote an open letter to PM Modi, demanding that Rs 1.36 lakh-crore in pending dues from coal companies be cleared. He emphasised that he was not asking for a “special budget” for the state but was requesting its rightful dues.

A recent ruling by a nine-judge Supreme Court Bench has also affirmed the state’s right to collect its mining and royalty dues. Last month, Hemant even suggested a direct debit of the owed amount from Coal India’s account to the state from the RBI, similar to the arrangements made for Jharkhand State Electricity Board dues to the DVC.

Jharkhand “is an under-developed state” and a lot of social economic development projects are “getting hampered due to non-payment of our justifiable demands”, Soren wrote. “When you demand the rights of Jharkhandis, they put you in jail. But, to get our rights, we will go for any sacrifice,” Hemant had previously tweeted.

Will it have an impact? We'll find out on November 23.