How INDIA bloc is giving a tough fight to BJP, with major upsets in UP, Maharashtra

The early trends for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections suggest a significant gain for INDIA bloc, and Congress in particular, as compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

The INDIA bloc has dealt a severe blow to the NDA in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, the top two states that send most number of MPs to the Lok Sabha, and made massive gains there.

The Congress in alliance with the Samajwadi Party (SP) is leading on 42 out of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh which is a huge blow to the NDA which virtually swept the elections in 2019. The NDA led by the BJP is ahead on 37 constituencies.

SP’s resurgence in UP

Political pundits are taken aback by the strong resurgence of Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party which is giving a tough fight to the saffron party in the state. Samajwadi Party has fielded five members of the Yadav family in the general elections. Out of these five members, Akhilesh Yadav, Dimple Yadav, Akshay Yadav and Dharmendra Yadav, are leading in their constituencies.

In 2019, the BJP clinched a major victory in Uttar Pradesh, bagging 62 out of 80 seats, and its ally Apna Dal winning two seats. The Samajwadi Party won just five seats, while Congress was restricted to one seat only.

The INDIA bloc parties, contesting under the banner of Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), are leading on 29 out of 48 seats in Maharashtra, much ahead of the NDA (Mahayuti alliance) with 18 seats. This a drastic decline from the NDA’s 2019 tally when the BJP contested the polls in alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena and emerged victorious on 41 out of 48 seats.

In West Bengal, the TMC led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is leading on 32 out of 39 seats while the Congress that contested the polls along with the Left parties is leading on one seat. Though the TMC didn’t tie up with the other INDIA bloc parties in the state, they consider themselves as a constituent of the alliance at the national level.

Backing from South

In Karnataka, the INDIA bloc is doing well with a lead on 9 Lok Sabha constituencies as compared to its 2019 tally of one. The BJP and its allies, who won 27 out of 28 seats, are leading on 19 constituencies. In neighbouring Tamil Nadu, the alliance led by DMK in the state is leading on 36 out of 39 Lok Sabha segments.

Similarly, in Kerala, the UDF led by Congress seems headed towards a clean sweep, leading on 17 out of 20 constituencies. In Telangana too, the Congress has taken a lead on 9 out of 17 Lok Sabha constituencies.

Boost from North

Another state where INDIA bloc seems to be scoring big is Haryana where the alliance is leading on 7 out of 10 seats. The BJP had won all 10 constituencies in 2019 Lok Sabha elections. These trends clearly indicate that the farming community has vent its ire against the BJP over the way it dealt with the farm protests and their demands. Moreover, the alliance between Congress and AAP also bore fruit.

In neighbouring Punjab too, Congress and AAP may not have forged an alliance, but the two parties together are leading on 10 out of 13 Lok Sabha seats. In this border state, the people were upset with BJP as well as Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) over a host of issues, the farmers’ protest being the major one. Going solo, SAD is leading on a single seat while BJP is staring at a blank.

In Rajasthan, where the BJP won all 25 seats in the last two Lok Sabha elections, the Congress has turned the tables on it this time, taking a lead on 11 out of 25 constituencies.