Exit polls predict BJP sweep in Gujarat, but Opposition keeps its hopes up

Although exit polls have predicted a clean Lok Sabha sweep for the BJP in Gujarat for a third consecutive term, the Congress-Aam Aadmi Party alliance is hopeful of winning a few seats in the state. Political pundits in Gujarat also think it won’t be an easy win for the BJP this time.

“There was strong anti-BJP wave in seats like Rajkot, Bhavnagar and Jamnagar,” said Manish Jaani, a political analyst and sociologist based in Ahmedabad. “And neck-and-neck fight is expected in Banaskantha, Valsad and Bharuch.”

Opposition’s chances

According to him, candidates like Congress’ Paresh Dhanani in Rajkot, Anant Patel in Valsad and Geniben Thakor in Banaskantha as well as Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)’s Umesh Makwana in Bhavnagar and Chaiter Vasava in Bharuch have fair chances of winning.

Experts say that another reason why BJP may not win the expected number of seats is that the state saw less voting than 2019 in all seats expect Banaskantha.

The BJP’s target was to see a minimum of 40 per cent voting in all seats. “But some seats, especially in Saurashtra and South Gujarat, saw very low voter turnout. It may be owing to extreme heat,” said Jaani.

BJP confident of win

The BJP is, of course, supremely confident. Gujarat BJP chief CR Patil has announced that the party shall not celebrate on June 4 in light of the Rajkot fire tragedy in which 32 people including children lost their lives.

The fate of 265 candidates will be decided on June 4 including Modi’s cabinet ministers Amit Shah, Mansukh Mandaviya and Parshottam Rupala as well as minister of state Devsinh Chauhan.

The key seats to watch out are Gandhinagar, Ahmedabad East, Ahmedabad West in Central Gujarat, Rajkot in Saurashtra region, Valsad in South Gujarat and Banaskantha in North Gujarat.

The elections were held in 25 of the 26 constituencies in the state because the ruling BJP bagged the Surat seat unopposed after eight out of nine eligible candidates withdrew their nomination forms. BJP candidate Mukesh Dalal was declared the winner.

KEY SEATS

Gandhinagar

In 2019, BJP’s Amit Shah defeated Congress’ CJ Chavda by 5.57 lakh votes. The BJP bagged 43.38 per cent of the total votes. The seat has been a saffron party turf and was earlier held by party veteran LK Advani.

Ahmedabad East

In 2019, BJP’s Somabhai Patel secured 7.45 lakh votes and defeated Congress candidate Gitaben Patel. The BJP got a vote share of 55 per cent of the total votes.

Ahmedabad West

In 2019, Kirit P Solanki of the BJP won, defeating Raju Parmar of the Congress by 3.21 lakh votes. The BJP’s vote share was 64.21 per cent.

Rajkot

The BJP has been winning the seat consistently since 1989 except in 2009 when Congress leader Kunvarji Bavalia won, but later joined the BJP. In 2014 and 2019, Mohanbhai Kundariya of the BJP defeated Kagathara Lalitbhai of the Congress. The winning margin was 3.68 lakh or 30.82 per cent of the total votes in 2019. The BJP had a vote share of 63.42 per cent in 2019.

Bharuch

The BJP has been winning the seat for three terms. Once a Congress bastion and the hub of the late Ahmed Patel, the Congress gave away the seat to AAP as part of the INDIA bloc seat-sharing deal. AAP’s Chaiter Vasava, nephew of Mansukh Vasava, is said to have a promising chance of winning owing to his popularity among the tribal population.

Bhavnagar

The seat dominated by Koli Patels and Kshatriyas was a Congress stronghold until 2014 when the BJP won and repeated its victory in 2019. A home district of Congress veteran and GPCC chief Shaktisinh Gohil was also given to AAP as the part of the alliance. AAP’s Umesh Makwana, once a BJP leader, faces Bharati Shiyal, a former mayor of the district who is contesting for the first time. Makwana won the state elections from Botad (in Bhavnagar Lok Sabha constituency) and has a good hold on Bhavnagar’s rural areas.