Congress makes vital gains in Himachal Assembly, but tough journey ahead

The Congress party may have been routed by the BJP, yet again, across Himachal Pradesh’s four Lok Sabha constituencies but it can take heart from the pyrrhic by-election victories that would save its only state government in the north. Four of the six Assembly segments to which by-elections were held simultaneously with the Lok Sabha elections have elected Congress legislators, taking the party’s overall tally in the 68-member House to 38; just past the half-way mark of 35.

Polling in Dharamsala, Sujanpur, Kutlehar, Barsar, Gagret and Lahaul and Spiti Assembly segments was necessitated after their then Congress MLAs were disqualified from the legislature in February for defying a party whip. A day earlier, these MLAs – Sudhir Sharma (Dharamsala), Rajinder Rana (Sujanpur), Inderdutt Lakhanpal (Barsar), Davinder Bhutto (Kutlehar), Chaitanya Sharma (Gagret) and Ravi Thakur (Lahaul and Spiti) – had cross-voted in favour of BJP candidate Harsh Vardhan leading to the shock defeat of Congress nominee Abhishek Manu Singhvi in the Rajya Sabha polls.

Wins and losses

The BJP had, subsequently, fielded all six rebels as its candidates from their respective constituencies for the by-elections.

On Tuesday (June 1), as results for the Lok Sabha polls tumbled in, while the Congress lost the state’s Lok Sabha constituencies of Hamirpur, Kangra, Shimla and Mandi to the BJP with substantial margins, it managed to retain the Assembly segments of Lahaul and Spiti, Sujanpur, Gagret and Kutlehar.

With the survival of his 18-month-old government at stake, chief minister Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu had led the party’s by-election campaign, urging the voters to “teach a lesson to traitors who had soul their soul for power”. The voters clearly haven’t disappointed Sukhu even if they gave a big thumbs down to the Congress across the state’s Lok Sabha seats.

Turncoats lose

While BJP candidates Anurag Thakur, Rajeev Bhardwaj, Suresh Kashyap and actor Kangna Ranaut scored comfortable victories against their Congress rivals from Hamirpur, Kangra, Shimla and Mandi Lok Sabha seats respectively, its newly minted turncoats Rajinder Rana, Chaitanya Sharma, Ravi Thakur and Davinder Bhutto lost the Assembly battle from the Sujanpur, Gagret, Lahaul and Spiti and Kutlehar constituencies respectively.

Sudhir Sharma, who was largely tipped to lose the Dharamsala seat, however, managed a slender victory against his Congress rival Devinder Singh Jaggi. The BJP also won the Barsar by-election with its candidate Inderdutt Lakhanpal retaining the seat against the Congress’ Subhash Chand.

Anurag Thakur

Interestingly, three of the Assembly segments that the Congress managed to retain in the by-elections – Kutlehar, Gagret and Sujanpur – fall within the Hamirpur Lok Sabha constituency, the home turf of Union minister Anurag Thakur. That Thakur won the Hamirpur Lok Sabha constituency this time with a margin of 1.82 lakh votes but failed to carry his party past the victory line in the by-elections for Assembly segments within his Lok Sabha constituency shows that the electorate makes a clear distinction between which party or leader best represents its interests at the Centre and in the state.

With the two by-election victories, the BJP’s tally in the state Assembly now goes up to 27 seats, still eight MLAs short of a simple majority. It is important to note, though, that the saffron party had also brought into its fold three independent legislators who had won the 2022 Assembly election. The decision of these three independent MLAs to join the BJP is currently pending scrutiny.

The future

The Himachal Assembly Speaker had initiated the process of disqualifying these independent legislators on grounds that as per the rules they could have only joined a party within the first six months of their tenure as MLAs. Including the three independents in the BJP’s tally would also not take the saffron party beyond 30 seats in the Assembly and so the Congress, at least for now, can hope to continue running a stable government.

Yet, the results of the Lok Sabha elections and Assembly by-elections give the Congress enough to ponder over.

Congress infighting

Firstly, its inability to wrest even a single Lok Sabha seat despite being in power in the state and running a high-decibel campaign on issues of price rise and unemployment, the Centre’s refusal to grant a flood relief package to Himachal and the anger among the state’s considerable vote banks of apple farmers and horticulturists does not augur well for the Congress.

Secondly, Congress insiders admit that the poor Lok Sabha performance was, at least in part, due to the recurrent factional war between Sukhu and the party’s state unit chief, Pratibha Singh.

Breathing space

The by-election victories may have saved Sukhu’s government but going forward these two factors of the Lok Sabha campaign could pan out adversely for the party in the state if the chief minister does not walk the extra mile to accommodate leaders of the Pratibha faction. It is a matter of record that Pratibha’s son and Sukhu’s cabinet colleague Vikramaditya Singh, who lost the Lok Sabha contest to Kangna Ranaut in Mandi, does not see eye to eye with the chief minister on most issues.

Members of Pratibha’s faction have often accused Sukhu of sidelining them and favouring his own loyalists for key roles in the government. Though the by-election results may indicate that the Himachal voter, unlike the electorate in most Hindi heartland states, doesn’t appreciate turncoats or attempts at toppling a state government, the BJP, sooner or later, may be tempted to exploit the faultlines within the Himachal Congress again.

Thus, the threat of losing a slender majority in the state Assembly will continue to haunt Sukhu and the Congress despite the by-election victories. For now, Sukhu can heave a sigh of relief over narrowly escaping the embarrassing distinction of becoming the hill state’s shortest-serving chief minister.