BJP, Congress’ vote share may rise by 3-4% in 2024 polls: Lokniti-CSDS survey
BJP’s vote share is likely to rise from 37.4% to 40% while that of Congress may grow from 19.5% in 2019 to 23% this time, says survey
With exit polls predicting a landslide win for the NDA in the Lok Sabha polls, a post-poll survey by Lokniti-CSDS says both the BJP and Congress are likely to see a slight increase in their vote shares this time compared to the numbers in 2019.
While the BJP got 37.4 per cent of the total votes polled in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, its share may go up to 40 per cent this time, says the survey. Similarly, the Congress’ vote share is expected to shoot from 19.5 per cent in 2019 to 23 per cent this time.
The gains for both the parties are in the range of three to four per cent, the survey says.
Polling for the survey was done taking inputs from 20,000 respondents selected through systematic random sampling.
Interestingly, the survey says the vote share of Congress allies is expected to increase from 7.3 per cent to 12 per cent, while that of the coalition partners of BJP is likely to see a slump from 7.5 per cent in 2019 to 6 per cent this time.
Even though the BJP is said to be in an advantageous position on the merit of its predicted win and three per cent increase in vote share, the prediction that Congress too will gain three per cent in vote share ensures that it is far from being written off.
The BJP’s attempts to raise its tally in eastern India and make a significant impact on the voters in the south also seems to have borne results as the survey predicts a rise in the party’s vote share in these regions. The saffron party is also predicted to hold on to its strongholds in north, west and central India.
However, while the BJP’s gains are symmetrical, the Congress’ wins will be as scattered and spread across only select states which wouldn’t be enough for it to defeat the BJP at the Centre.
