In first major election since abrogation of 370, how will J&K vote?

Kashmir, they say, is a graveyard of reputations.

The waters in the famed rivers — Jhelum, Chenab and Indus — flow unabated to bear witness and keep track of the many ups and downs, turns and twists, and historical tragedies and triumphs. No situation is permanent as far as Jammu and Kashmir’s socio-political panorama is concerned.

The most recent Assembly elections in J&K were held in 2014, nearly a decade ago. Much has changed in the restive region’s dicey political landscape since the last parliamentary elections that took place in 2019.

As a result of the actions taken on August 5, 2019, to abrogate Article 370, J&K’s political and electoral maps stand altered. Ladakh is no longer a part of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir. Both Ladakh and J&K are now separate Union Territories (UTs).

Election schedule

Earlier, there were six parliamentary seats in J&K. Now, there are only five.

In an emerging and uncertain situation, political observers are keenly watching the new political moves made by various political formations active on J&K’s political chessboard.

The Lok Sabha elections will be held across five phases in J&K, and the counting of the votes will take place on June 4. The Lok Sabha seats are Udhampur (April 19), Jammu (April 26), Anantnag-Rajouri (May 7), Srinagar (May 13), and Baramulla (May 20).

Ladakh, with a single constituency, votes on May 20.

Numerous political groups

In the altered landscape, how are the political parties, most notably the National Conference (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), going to assert their political heft? How much influence will the Sajad Lone-led People’s Conference (PC), the Altaf Bukhari-led Apni Party (AP) and Ghulam Nabi Azad-led Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) wield in the forthcoming elections?

Apart from these five regional parties, there are parties like the BJP, the Congress, the CPI(M) and smaller groups such as the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) and the Awami National Conference.

As a political force, the PDP stands decimated with most of its senior and key leaders either expelled for "anti-party activities” or having parted ways to form new political groups. Notably, about six years ago, the PDP sacked one of its senior members and a cabinet minister (finance), Haseeb Drabu.

Meanwhile, reliable sources told The Federal that the PDP is likely to field its young leader Waheed Parra as its candidate for the Srinagar Lok Sabha constituency.

Syed Altaf Bukhari, another former finance minister and senior PDP leader, founded the Apni Party in March 2020. While launching the new political outfit, Bukhari described it “a platform for the common people”. He was dismissive of what he termed the idea of "dynastic politics”, a veiled reference to the NC and the PDP.

However, all major political formations in J&K view Apni Party as "an offshoot of the BJP” while many take a dig at Sajad Lone’s PC as “BJP’s B-team”.

Political scientist Prof Noor Baba opines that the mushrooming of regional parties is "more likely to fragment the vote share” of the traditional regional parties. “This will definitely be an advantage to the BJP in the Rajouri-Anantnag parliamentary seat within the current political context,” Baba told The Federal, adding that "the impact of this fragmentation is more likely to adversely impact the PDP”.

More challenges than opportunities

Post-delimitation exercise, there are more challenges than opportunities for Jammu and Kashmir’s traditional political formations.

Earlier, for instance, the PDP considered all four South Kashmir districts — Pulwama, Shopian, Kulgam and Anantnag — as its bastions. Winning a majority of assembly segments from South Kashmir was a given for the party.

As a result of the controversial delimitation exercise, the newly carved out parliamentary segment is now called the Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha (LS) constituency. The constituency comprises 18 Assembly segments – 11 from south Kashmir and seven from Poonch and Rajouri.

BJP bid to woo Paharis, OBCs

In December 2023, the Lok Sabha passed the Jammu and Kashmir Reservation (Amendment) Bill, 2023, revising the reservation quotas. In March 2024, the Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha-led J&K administration sanctioned 10 per cent reservation for newly-included tribes, including the influential Pahari community, in the Scheduled Tribe (ST) and added 15 new castes in the Other Backward Classes (OBCs).

Political observers say the ruling BJP aims to woo the Pahari community and OBCs in the Pir Panjal range. Justice (retired) Hasnain Masoodi, the NC candidate, won the Anantnag parliamentary seat in 2019 by garnering 40,180 votes. Ghulam Ahmad Mir of the Congress got 33,504 votes while Mehbooba Mufti of the PDP received 30,524 votes to secure third position.

However, in 2014, Mehbooba Mufti secured 2,00,429 votes to win the same seat by a margin of 65,417 votes.

All has changed

After the redrawing of J&K's electoral map, the erstwhile Anantnag LS seat is not the same as before. Though the chances for the BJP to win the rechristened Anantnag-Rajouri seat remain thin, the saffron party can “make inroads enough to showcase it as the success of its agenda”.

Remarked a senior political commentator, “If anything, that will put the sentiment post-2019 among the Muslim population of J&K to a stern test, a stark choice. Much would also depend on the behaviour of NC.”

"If the NC’s present arrogance and ambivalence continues, consequent shades of grey could have long-term implications, as its policies and political clout have always had,” he said, pleading anonymity.

Blow to Gupkar alliance

The analyst was referring to the NC’s decision to field its three candidates for the Anantnag-Rajouri, Srinagar and Baramulla LS constituencies, a blow to the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) of which the NC is a key constituent. The NC is refusing to budge from its decision to field candidates for all three LS seats in the Kashmir Valley and Pir Panjal.

According to reliable sources, the NC is all set to field Farooq Abdullah, Omar Abdullah and Mian Altaf Ahmad from the Srinagar, Baramulla and Anantnag-Rajouri LS seats respectively.

In the last LS elections, Farooq Abdullah registered victory from the Srinagar constituency, Hasnain Masoodi from the Anantnag LS seat and M Akbar Lone emerged victorious from the Baramulla LS seat.

NC, PDP struggle for narrative

One of the biggest challenges for both the NC and the PDP is to construct a robust and consistent political narrative. At the moment, they lack a narrative that would capture the imagination of large sections of the populace.

Both regional parties do not appear to have a roadmap to "restore” J&K’s pre-August 5, 2019 status.

Political rhetoric aside, these players pinned all hopes on a positive judicial outcome. The Supreme Court judgement did not come to their rescue. They had mistaken hope and prayer for analysis and political strategy. Apart from angry tweets and occasional fiery press statements, both have failed to deliver anything substantial on the ground for a variety of reasons.

This, however, does not mean they have become electorally irrelevant or on the precipice of irrelevance. Instead, what it means is that these groups are no longer as dominant as previously.

In case of a low voter turnout in the Anantnag-Rajouri LS seat, there could be some advantage for the BJP. A Jammu-based political analyst, however, feels that despite a custom delimitation, granting ST status to the Pahari community, fissures in the PAGD and a new political alliance between Ghulam Nabi Azad and Altaf Bukhari, "the BJP doesn't stand a realistic chance” to win the LS seat.

Edge for BJP in Jammu region

The BJP could hold on to the Udhampur and Jammu seats in the Jammu region. Farooq Abdullah is considered a favourite to win the Srinagar LS seat, Sajad Lone is expected to give a tough fight to the NC candidate (possibly Omar Abdullah) in the Baramulla LS segment while NC’s Mian Altaf is a hot favourite to win the Anantnag-Rajouri LS seat as he wields considerable clout over the Pahari people.

In the last LS elections, the BJP emerged victorious in three constituencies in J&K. Jitendra Singh won the Udhampur constituency, Jugal Kishore triumphed in Udhampur and Jamyang Tsering Namgyal in Ladakh.

However, the contest for Udhampur and Jammu seats is not going to be straightforward, as earlier assumed.

Congress to pose a challenge

The Congress is not out of the race, as there is some palpable resentment against the BJP in both Udhampur and Jammu constituencies this time.

The BJP will persist with fielding Jitendra Singh for the third consecutive LS elections since 2014 from Udhampur parliamentary constituency, while Ghulam Nabi Azad’s party has placed faith in GM Saroori.

However, the major story from Udhampur is the Congress decision to rope in former cabinet minister and chairperson of Dogra Swabhiman Sangthan (DSS), Choudhary Lal Singh. Dogra leader Singh earned notoriety, as a former BJP leader, for holding a rally in support of the alleged rapists of a young girl in the Kathua region of Jammu when the PDP-BJP coalition government was at the helm. He was later forced to resign as a minister.

In a dramatic turn of events, Lal Singh returned to the Congress fold and sounded a poll bugle against BJP candidate Jitendra Singh. Lal Singh is known as a crowd-puller in Dogra-speaking belts and wields significant influence over Jammu’s Dogra community.

A leading political commentator from Jammu told The Federal that “if the early trends are to hold, the contest in Udhampur and Jammu Lok Sabha seats is going to be far from a one-sided affair, as initially believed by many. There is going to be a tough fight, an exciting and trendsetting election after a decade.”

Not much clout for the Left

MY Tarigami, the lone Communist leader from the Kashmir valley, easily wins his Kulgam assembly seat in south Kashmir, but his party, CPI(M), isn’t a force to reckon with in the parliamentary polls.

In essence, it is a three-way battle among the BJP and its regional allies, the National Conference, and the Congress-led INDIA bloc.