Why Congress needs to be cautious despite a ‘reverse Operation Lotus’ in Haryana

In a surprise reversal of fortunes that has added to the discomfiture of an already-edgy BJP and emboldened the Congress in Haryana, three Independent legislators withdrew their support to the state’s Nayab Singh Saini-led government late Tuesday (May 7) evening.

While the bench strength of the Haryana Assembly is 90, it currently has 88 MLAs following the resignation of former chief minister ML Khattar and independent MLA Ranjit Chautala — the two are now contesting the Lok Sabha polls from the Karnal and Hisar constituencies, respectively. The effective majority mark in the House is, thus, 45. Along with support from Haryana Lokhit Party’s Gopal Kanda and independent MLAs Rakesh Daultabad, Balraj Kundu, and Nayan Pal Rawat, the BJP currently has the “official” support of 44 MLAs against the Congress’s tally of 33 MLAs (including the three Independents who have now switched sides).

As such, the Saini government appears to be in a minority following Tuesday’s events. Down but defiant, the CM has, however, asserted that there is “no threat” to the government. BJP sources say “at least four MLAs from Dushyant Chautala’s Jananayak Janata Party (JJP)” have ostensibly assured Saini that he could count on their support if and when such need may arise.

BJP’s growing vulnerabilities

However, coming as it does barely weeks before polling for Haryana’s 10 Lok Sabha seats and about six months ahead of the state’s Assembly polls, the decision of the three legislators exposes rising vulnerabilities of the BJP amid raucous demands by the Congress to “impose President’s Rule in the state”. The saffron party, which had come to power in the state in 2019 for a second consecutive term following a swiftly-stitched post-poll alliance with the JJP, has been wobbling for the past few months in the face of multiple challenges.

It had already earned the wrath of the state’s farming community and the formidable Jat population due to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s perceptibly anti-farmer policies and his stubborn refusal to act against party MP Brij Bhushan Singh over the sexual harassment allegations levelled by women wrestlers. Over the past two months, the turbulence has only become worse. The BJP lost its ally, the JJP, and was forced to replace chief minister ML Khattar with Saini in March and now its government is teetering on the brink with the three independent MLAs withdrawing their support.

Hooda’s doing?

The move by Independent MLAs Dharampal Gonder, Randhir Gollen and Somveer Sangwan comes as a major shot in the arm for Leader of Opposition Bhupinder Singh Hooda in his dual quest of embarrassing the ruling BJP and establishing himself as the only pivot that the Congress can revolve around in Haryana.

With his eyes set on returning as CM for a third term when the state goes to polls later this year, Hooda has been assiduously trying to establish his complete dominance over the Congress in Haryana. He had practically forced the party high command’s hand two years ago when he succeeded in getting his detractor, former Union minister Kumari Selja, replaced as Haryana Congress chief with his loyalist Udai Bhan. Over the past month, despite a spirited pushback from Selja and other Hooda rivals, former minister Kiran Chaudhary and Rajya Sabha MP Randeep Surjewala, the former two-term CM managed to corner a lion’s share of tickets for his handpicked candidates for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.

That the three Independents who ditched the BJP, on Tuesday, did so in Hooda’s presence left no doubt in anyone’s mind that it was the Congress’s Jat strongman from Rohtak who was behind the “reverse Operation Lotus” in Haryana. Addressing the media in Rohtak, the three MLAs declared they would “support the Congress” and “ensure victory of the INDIA alliance (the Congress is contesting nine seats while the AAP is fighting on one) across Haryana’s 10 seats”, while Hooda demanded imposition of President’s Rule and slammed the BJP for “failing Haryana on every front”.

Reversal of fortunes

After drawing a blank in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls across Haryana, the Congress has been hoping that the palpable anger of farmers and the Jat community against the BJP would help it bag a chunk of the state’s 10 constituencies in the ongoing polls. At such a time, the decision of Gonder, Sangwan and Gollen to desert the ruling side and back the Congress is clearly poor poll optics for the BJP, which is also facing dissent within its ranks ever since Saini formed his new Cabinet after benching senior ministers such as Anil Vij.

To make an already difficult election more daunting for the BJP, the Congress, with Hooda in the lead, has also managed to run a fairly well-oiled poll campaign in Haryana, so far, drawing heavily on the anti-incumbency against the BJP on issues of agrarian distress, Modi and former CM Khattar’s apathy towards farmers and women wrestlers (all of them from the Jat community) allegedly victimised by Brij Bhushan, rising joblessness and the unpopularity of the Agniveer scheme, and the youth.

Hooda’s son and the Congress’ candidate from Rohtak, Deepender Hooda told The Federal, “We have been saying for the past few years that the BJP has ruined Haryana and its governments, at the Centre and in the state, have pushed the state backwards in every sphere... now even their (BJP’s) supporters are realising this sad reality... in any state, Independent MLAs normally support the party in power because they think doing so will help in the development of their constituencies but, in Haryana, it is now clear that even this is not happening... It shows how unpopular the BJP has become, no one wants to stand in its shadow”.

Cautious Congress

Admitting that Tuesday’s event was “nothing short of a coup” by Bhupinder Hooda, a senior Haryana Congress leader, however, asserted there was need for the Congress to be cautious and that “what may seem like a victory for the Congress is actually a victory for Hooda; we would be making a grave blunder by becoming overconfident because three Independents have switched sides”.

Party insiders point out that the Congress in Haryana is a house divided, with Hooda running the party as his “personal jagir (fiefdom)” while other senior leaders have been “forced to the margins”. “We have seen this in the Lok Sabha ticket distribution. Senior Haryana leaders like Capt. Ajay Yadav and Kiran Chaudhary were overlooked; Raj Babbar was fielded from Gurgaon only because Hooda wanted his candidature while Birender Singh and his son (Brijendra Singh) who quit the BJP to join us were denied tickets... All this has upset people on our side too; do you think the BJP will not exploit this divide?... The only reason no one is quitting the Congress in Haryana right now is because the general sense is that the BJP is on a weak footing in the state, but if we perform poorly in the Lok Sabha elections, these things will change overnight,” another Congress functionary told The Federal.