Vote split agenda may drive BJP to ally with Sajad Lone, Altaf Bukhari

While the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has stitched up alliances across the country mostly on predicted lines, its actions in Jammu and Kashmir have piqued some interest.

Over the past week, there has been speculation about the BJP persuading Sajad Ghani Lone-led J&K People’s Conference (JKPC) and Altaf Bukhari-led J&K Apni Party (JKAP) to join its fold ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.

The Union Territory (UT) of Jammu and Kashmir will be voting across the first five phases of the Lok Sabha election, from April 19 to May 20.

BJP's B and C teams?

On April 6, BJP general secretary Tarun Chug met Bukhari and Lone at Bukhari’s Srinagar residence, prompting speculation that they might stitch a partnership for the parliamentary polls.

Bukhari, rubbishing all conjectures about the visit, said: “There is nothing political about it. I was unwell and they came to inquire about my health. It was a courtesy call, and no politics was discussed. Sajad sahib keeps visiting me. We have family ties.”

However, a key JKAP leader told The Federal on the condition of anonymity: “Politicians meet each other as and when they deem fit and necessary. They keep the door ajar, always.”

Bukhari and Lone, along with Ghulam Nabi Azad, have often been accused of leading their respective lesser-known political groups as the BJP’s B and C teams. Azad had rebelled and quit the Congress in August 2022 to form the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP).

Farooq Abdullah-led National Conference (NC) and Mehbooba Mufti-led People’s Democratic Party (PDP) have often accused the BJP of dividing votes in Kashmir by backing smaller groups led by the likes of Bukhari, Lone and Azad.

'Look who's talking'

The three men deny this. Instead, they take a dig at the NC and PDP for having previously worked with the saffron party.

From March 2015 to June 2018, the PDP partnered with the BJP in J&K’s coalition government. Mufti Mohammad Sayeed led the coalition and, after his demise, it was taken over by Mehbooba Mufti, in 2016.

Similarly, NC’s Omar Abdullah was a minister of state in the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led government at the Centre from July 2001 to December 2002.

According to Professor Noor Baba, a political expert, the mushrooming of new parties is likely to fragment the vote share of the traditional regional parties (NC and PDP) and, therefore, favour the BJP.

Status of new parties

Bukhari’s JKAP and Azad’s DPAP were formed after August 5, 2019, when Jammu and Kashmir lost its autonomy and statehood with the abrogation of Article 370.

JKPC currently led by Sajad Lone was initially formed by his father Abdul Gani Lone in the late 1970s and a prominent Shia leader Moulvi Iftikhar Ansari (both deceased) and Sajad Lone took over the reins in the early 2000 after his father’s assassination.

As far as parliamentary elections go, these parties do not pose a significant threat to either the NC or PDP. But in case they enter a larger electoral alliance with Lone’s JKPC, they could ensure a division of votes in the Anantnag-Rajouri, central Kashmir’s Srinagar and north Kashmir’s Baramulla Lok Sabha seats.

This, in turn, will be a major advantage for the BJP.

Together, the trio can pose a threat only if they do not field their own candidates against one another as happened in Anantnag-Rajouri. For now, the JKAP and the DPAP have fielded Zafar Manhas and Azad, respectively, in the Anantnag-Rajouri seat. The NC has finalised the name of its stalwart Mian Altaf. PDP president Mehbooba Mufti will also contest there.

Previously, Bukhari won his Assembly seat from Srinagar as a PDP candidate while Lone’s party has some clout in north Kashmir areas like Handwara and Kupwara. Azad hails from Doda district in the Chenab Valley, where he enjoys modest support.

Charge, counter

NC spokesman Imran Nabi Dar said BJP leader Chug’s meeting with Bukhari and Lone represented a stamp of approval for a potential alliance between these parties.

NC’s chief spokesman Tanvir Sadiq told The Federal that an alliance between JKPC and JKAP was not even a secret. “How can it be a secret? However, it is good for us that they have realised they need New Delhi’s intervention and blessings to give us a tough fight,” Sadiq said. “Both Lone and Bukhari are often called to Delhi. Now they have been advised to come together on a single platform after realising the mood on the streets.”

Dismissing the accusations, JKPC spokesperson Adnan Ashraf Mir said the NC’s claims of alliance talks amongst the JKPC, JKAP and DPAP have “already proved out to be baseless”.

“Their subsequent attempts at crafting new conspiracy theories resemble scripts that even C-grade Bollywood writers would find implausible. Our party reaffirms that there is no room for any alliance with the BJP. It is all a figment of someone’s imagination,” Adnan Mir told The Federal.

Lone's politics

Sajad Lone has been labelled the BJP’s ‘poster boy’ in Kashmir ever since he started his political innings in the unionist camp over a decade ago, bidding adieu to the ideology espoused by his late father Abdul Gani Lone in the All Parties Hurriyat Conference.

Lone has enjoyed good relations with the BJP earlier. In November 2018, about five months after the BJP withdrew its support to the PDP-led coalition government, Lone told then J&K Governor Satya Pal Malik that he had the support of more than the required number of legislators in the J&K Assembly to form a government.

He claimed he enjoyed the support of the BJP and more than 18 other legislators. Malik dissolved the state assembly without letting Lone prove his claim, so any agreement the latter had with the BJP came to naught.

PDP versus NC

JKPC chairperson Sajad Lone will contest from north Kashmir’s Baramulla seat. JKAP is yet to name a candidate there.

Meanwhile, the PDP has named its nominees for all three Lok Sabha constituencies in the Kashmir Valley: Mehbooba Mufti, Waheed Parra and Fayaz Mir from Anantnag-Rajouri, Srinagar and Baramulla, respectively.

The decision by the NC and the PDP to fight all three Kashmir Valley Lok Sabha seats is the proverbial last nail in the coffin of the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) that came up after the events of August 2019 to collectively fight for restoring Jammu and Kashmir’s special status and semi-autonomy.