The Federal survey: Telangana bats for Congress; AP gives YSRCP an edge
The Federal-Puthiyathalaimurai-Apt 2024 Pre-Poll Survey suggests it's a mixed bag for BJP — it will gain some vote share in AP, but bleed some in Telangana
Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, two states with a common history, language and culture, are at two ends of the political spectrum today.
In the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, Andhra Pradesh is likely to see a tough fight between the Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) and an alliance of Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Jana Sena, The Federal-Puthiyathalaimurai-Apt 2024 Pre-Poll Survey suggests. Here, the YSRCP has an edge albeit small, it says.
Telangana, which is completing 10 years coming June, is all set to vote for the Congress, says the survey.
Andhra Pradesh: Advantage Jagan?
Andhra Pradesh, struggling to get back on its feet after handing over Hyderabad during the Telangana bifurcation, has witnessed many a political upheaval over the past 10 years.
This year, the state will not only vote for a new government at the Centre, but also vote in a new Assembly. The incumbent YSRCP government has aligned with neither the Congress nor the BJP ahead of elections. Arch rival TDP, on the other hand, has allied with the Jana Sena.
The survey says while YSRCP will get around 13 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in AP, the TDP-Jana Sena combine will bag around 11. The BJP, which may get just one seat this time, can take heart from the appreciable increase in vote-share this time as against 2019, the surge suggests.
Telangana: Like Assembly, like Lok Sabha?
India’s youngest state voted in a Congress government in December 2023. While the jury is still out on the two-month-old Revanth Reddy government, Congress appears to be the people’s favourite for the Parliament election, too.
The Federal survey says the Congress is likely to bag 13 of the 17 Lok Sabha seats in Telangana, with the K Chandrashekar Rao-led Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) bagging the rest. In 2019, the BRS — then called Telangana Rashtra Samithi — had won nine seats.
The survey predicts zero seats for the BJP, against four in 2019.
Contrary to neighbour Andhra Pradesh, the BJP may see a fall in vote share also this year as against 2019, says the survey. The BRS, which had cornered a 42 per cent vote share in 2019, will see this fall to 32 per cent this year, says the survey.
The Congress, at 42.5 per cent, will hold the largest vote share of Lok Sabha seats this year, goes the prediction.
What’s on tomorrow
To watch Federal's in-depth panel discussion on the two states, click here.
To read the previous survey-related articles and watch the panel discussions, click here.
Tomorrow, we will be covering three states that have witness significant political churn in recent months. Will the upheaval get reflected in the Lok Sabha election? Watch this space!
