The Federal survey | DMK is Tamil Nadu’s choice in triangular contest

For decades, elections in Tamil Nadu have been duels. Be it State Assembly or Lok Sabha, elections have been pitched battles between the DMK and the AIADMK, with most other major parties including the BJP and the Congress aligning with either of the two.

Things are set to change this time, suggests The Federal-Puthiyathalaimurai-Apt 2024 Pre-Poll Survey. The survey for the 2024 Lok Sabha election, which covered 19 states across the country, was conducted more intensively in Tamil Nadu. The aim was to gauge the mood of each of the five regions in the state – north, south, west, central, and Chennai.

Vote-share for entire state

The findings reveal that the MK Stalin-led DMK, which is running the state government, is likely to get the greatest vote-share in the Lok Sabha election, too. However, its vote-share will likely fall from the 2019 election level.

The AIADMK, on the other hand, will likely see its vote-share on par with 2019 levels. The BJP is springing a surprise with a vote-share on par with the AIADMK, which broke ties with the former last year.

The region-wise trends in Tamil Nadu throw up some interesting in numbers.

In the South Zone, the DMK leads with over 37 per cent, followed by the BJP at 19.5 per cent and the AIADMK at 12.5 per cent.

The pattern changes in the West Zone, where the DMK leads with a small vote-share of over 31 per cent, followed by the BJP at 22 per cent and the AIADMK at 21.4 per cent.

In the Central Zone, the DMK gets a much higher vote-share of 46 per cent. Next comes arch rival AIADMK at 20.3 per cent, followed by the BJP at 11 per cent.

In the North Zone, always considered a DMK bastion, the party’s vote-share is at 35.5 per cent. The AIADMK comes next at 20 per cent, followed by the BJP at 18 per cent.

In state capital Chennai, yet another traditional DMK forte, the party’s projected vote-share is nearly 47 per cent. The BJP comes second in Chennai, at nearly 22 per cent, while the AIADMK comes third with a 10.4 per cent vote-share.

Vote-share: 2024 vs 2019 trends

In all, Tamil Nadu is likely to give the DMK a vote-share of over 38%, substantially down from 53.3 per cent from the 2019 Lok Sabha election. The BJP comes second with an 18.5 per cent vote-share, which is roughly six times the 3.7 per cent it bagged in 2019.

The survey report says nearly 51 per cent of the respondents in Tamil Nadu support for Congress leader Rahul Gandhi as a prime ministerial candidate from among Opposition leaders. This preference for Rahul doesn’t fully translate into votes for the DMK front, of which the Congress is a part.

The AIADMK is set to get a 17.3 per cent vote-share, almost on par with the 18.7 per cent in got in 2019, The Federal survey suggests.

Who bags the most seats?

Of the 39 Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu, the DMK is set to win 29, sweeping the election in the state, says The Federal survey. Rivals BJP and AIADMK will bag 4-6 seats each, it is predicted.

While this gives the DMK an unmistakable win, the number of seats is well below the 38 it scooped up in 2019, leaving just one seat for the AIADMK.

Coming up tomorrow

To read the previous survey-related articles and watch the panel discussions, click here.

Tomorrow, we will take a pan-nation look and gauge the average Indian’s voting intention. The Federal-Puthiyathalaimurai-Apt 2024 Pre-Poll Survey has thrown up some truly intriguing numbers. Watch this space!