The Federal survey: Chhattisgarh, MP, Rajasthan set for saffron sweep
The Federal-Puthiyathalaimurai-Apt 2024 Pre-Poll Survey predicts Congress losing more ground in the 3 states when compared to 2019, even as BJP expands its hold
Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh fall under the ‘Hindi belt’ bracket. Towards 2023-end, they voted in new assemblies. That’s about where the similarities end, at least politically.
Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan voted out Congress governments and brought in BJP governments last December. Madhya Pradesh chose to retain a BJP government, but the party sprung a surprise, replacing the veteran Shivraj Singh Chouhan with a barely-known Mohan Yadav as Chief Minister.
The Federal-Puthiyathalaimurai-Apt 2024 Pre-Poll Survey suggests saffron remains the flavour of the poll season this time, too, in the three states, both in terms of vote share and seat share. How many seats will the parties bag in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections?
Madhya Pradesh: Status quo, more or less
The central Indian state is expected to give an over 63 per cent seat share to BJP this time, the survey predicts. This is an improvement from the nearly 59 per cent it mustered in 2019, and is nearly three times the 23 per cent that the Congress is expected to garner this time.
Of the 29 Lok Sabha seats in Madhya Pradesh, the BJP will likely bag 28, with the Congress managing just one, says The Federal survey.
Rajasthan: BJP staying strong
The western state, which gave the BJP a 59 per cent vote share in 2019, is likely to expand it to 61 per cent this time. The Congress, on the other hand, may see its vote share slip from nearly 35 per cent in 2019 to nearly 27 per cent this time, the survey says.
Rajasthan is expected to give 24 of its 25 Lok Sabha seats to the BJP, while the Congress will take one, the survey suggests. The Congress had drawn a blank in 2019.
Chhattisgarh: Advantage BJP
Chhattisgarh, which replaced a Congress government with a BJP one in December 2023, will vote along similar lines in the Lok Sabha election, suggests The Federal survey.
The BJP is expected to increase its vote share in the state marginally, from over 51 per cent in 2019 to nearly 55 per cent this time. The Congress, on the other hand, is likely to see a fall from 41.5 per cent to 36 per cent.
Chhattisgarh is likely to give 10 of its 11 Lok Sabha seats to the BJP, with one seat going to the Congress, the survey suggests.
What Monday brings
To read the previous survey-related articles and watch the panel discussions, click here.
On Monday, February 19, we will be covering two states that share certain ideologies, but are now far apart politically. Watch this space!
