Resilient, cadre-driven AIADMK is a bigger force than what BJP is projecting

As the first phase of polling, when Tamil Nadu will vote, fast approaches, the electoral landscape is rife with surprises.

In recent days, the contest has intensified between the AIADMK and the BJP, with the saffron party attempting to revive the former's legacy debate.

Yet another controversial statement from Tamil Nadu BJP president K Annamalai has expectedly sparked outrage. While campaigning in the Theni constituency for TTV Dhinakaran, general secretary of Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), Annamalai suggested that AIADMK cadres might realign their loyalties towards Dhinakaran once the election results are out, on June 4.

Dhinakaran's aunt is VK Sasikala, a close associate of former Chief Minister, the late J Jayalalithaa.

Legacy battle

Expanding on his earlier statement in a Puthiyathalaimurai interview, where he predicted the end of the AIADMK after the elections, Annamalai said the faction led by Edappadi K Palaniswami would dissolve, and its members would rally behind Dhinakaran.

Campaigning for another AIADMK dissident leader, O Panneerselvam (OPS), in the Ramanathapuram constituency, Annamalai stated that OPS's departure from the AIADMK marks the second political betrayal in Tamil Nadu's history, following DMK leader M Karunanidhi's expulsion of MG Ramachandran (MGR) from the party.

"After June 4, Tamil Nadu will witness OPS's vishwaroopam ('universal form'). The people know who the real leader is, the one whom Amma (Jayalalithaa) placed her entire trust in," said Annamalai.

In both gatherings, Annamalai notably addressed Jayalalithaa as "Amma." It may be recalled that in his earlier interview with a newspaper, he had implied that Jayalalithaa was a leader convicted for corruption. It was one of the factors leading to the rupture in the alliance between the AIADMK and the BJP.

Tie-up with OPS and Dhinakaran

The BJP found itself compelled to forge alliances with OPS and Dhinakaran after Edappadi Palaniswami firmly closed the doors on them.

Interestingly, before Palaniswami unequivocally decided that both leaders had no place in the AIADMK, OPS and Dhinakaran were at odds with each other. OPS's initial dissent was directed at Sasikala, who aspired to succeed him as chief minister following Jayalalithaa's demise.

However, after Palaniswami solidified his position within the party, securing the leadership role and retaining the two-leaves symbol, OPS and Dhinakaran found an unlikely common ground.

Uncertainty about Sasikala’s loyalties

Meanwhile, the uncertainty surrounding Sasikala's loyalties persists. She has maintained a steadfast silence throughout the election period, refraining even from campaigning for her nephew Dhinakaran.

"If Annamalai is suggesting that Dhinakaran will lead the AIADMK due to his proximity to Jayalalithaa and Sasikala, then, in reality, Sasikala herself is more suited for the role," remarked a source close to her. "After all, she shared a close bond with Jayalalithaa in every aspect and wielded considerable influence within the party even during Jayalalithaa's lifetime."

The most recent news involving Sasikala was about her building a new house at the Poes Garden locality in Chennai, where she had spent a significant portion of her life with Jayalalithaa. Following Jayalalithaa's death, her house – Veda Nilayam - was handed over to her niece, J Deepa, and nephew, Deepak. Sasikala's new house stands directly opposite Veda Nilayam.

There are rumours suggesting that Edappadi Palaniswami attempted to contact her to counter the narrative established by OPS-Dhinakaran, but she remained unyielding.

"It is possible that they might reach a compromise after the elections. For now, she prefers to adopt a wait-and-watch approach."

BJP's caste calculations

The BJP is banking on the OPS -Dhinakaran duo to secure the votes of the Mukkulathor community, especially in southern Tamil Nadu.

Historically, the AIADMK has been largely seen as backed by the Mukkulathor community, largely due to Sasikala's influence within the party. However, since Palaniswami assumed the leadership, there has been a perception shift, with the party being seen more as a Gounder party, reflecting Palaniswami's own community background.

Palaniswami's efforts to regain Mukkulathor support by offering key positions to leaders from the community have not produced the desired outcomes. In this context, any indication of support from Sasikala could help bolster the AIADMK's position.

AIADMK’s resilience

Observing that Annamalai's statement displays political immaturity and reveals a lack of understanding about Tamil Nadu's politics, senior journalist Durai Karuna, who has extensively covered the AIADMK since its inception, suggested that "a compromise might become unavoidable if the AIADMK faces a setback in the election."

"The way AIADMK was born, the way it grew, and had towering leaders like MGR and Jayalalithaa, I wonder if Annamalai has any clue about it. Despite having such leaders, the AIADMK was always a cadre-driven party,” said Durai Karuna.

Karuna recalled a moment from MGR's speech immediately after the launch of the AIADMK, where the leader exuded confidence in the party's enduring strength.

"People speculated that the AIADMK's fate rested solely on Ramachandran's shoulders," Karuna reminisced. "But MGR countered this notion, declaring, 'Fools, if one Ramachandran is gone, it won't spell the end of the AIADMK. It will endure for a thousand years’."

Organisational structure

The sheer magnitude of AIADMK's organisational structure, spanning from grassroots units to state-level leadership roles, dwarfs the total membership count of the BJP in the state tenfold, Karuna observed.

"Also, the AIADMK's voter base outweighs that of the the BJP by 15 times. Annamalai's assertion that the party will cease to exist reveals his profound misunderstanding of Tamil Nadu and its intricate political landscape."

Karuna pointed to a critical period in the AIADMK's history, noting a leadership vacuum after MGR fell ill and eventually passed away.

“Jayalalithaa adeptly navigated through this period to emerge as the party's undisputed leader. The factions led by Jayalalithaa and Janaki Ramachandran (MGR's widow) merged after the 1989 elections. There are chances of a similar effort happening after this election too,” he said.

But Karuna cautioned against assuming that the cadres would automatically support OPS and TTV, as Annamalai suggests.

‘BJP trying to eliminate AIADMK’

“The AIADMK cadres primarily seek a leader capable of effectively countering the DMK and halting the BJP's advances. Remember the BJP's rhetoric about a Tamil Nadu devoid of the kazhagams (AIADMK and DMK)? What the BJP is doing to AIADMK is like Dritarashtra aalinganam [a metaphor from the Mahabharatha for a hug that weakens the person hugged]," said Karuna.

"Essentially, the BJP aims to pit one faction of the AIADMK against the others, fostering internal strife to weaken and eventually eliminate the AIADMK. But such strategies are unlikely to work in Tamil Nadu," he added.

Palaniswami seems cognizant of the BJP's alleged attempts to undermine the AIADMK and is evidently displeased with Annamalai's remarks, he said.

"He (Annamalai) is not even five years old in politics and claims he will eliminate the AIADMK," Palaniswami remarked at an election rally in Salem. "The AIADMK has encountered numerous individuals like him. Those who endeavour to eradicate the AIADMK have invariably found themselves eliminated."

‘Publicity-seeker, comedian’

Leader after leader within the AIADMK has vehemently criticised Annamalai, labelling him as a 'publicity-seeker', 'attention-grabber', and a 'comedian'.

"Annamalai, with his IPS background, has entered politics on deputation. Many individuals have departed from the AIADMK in the past, only to fade into obscurity thereafter. However, the AIADMK has persevered and remained unified. Annamalai seems oblivious to this historical context," Kadambur Raj, a senior AIADMK leader, told journalists recently.

In the constantly-shifting electoral landscape, the battleground has once again narrowed down to a face-off between the AIADMK and the BJP, after a period dominated by the DMK and the AIADMK.

Observers suggest that this resurgence of the AIADMK-BJP dynamic reflects the success of the BJP's strategy in shaping a politics of perception. But Palaniswami seems determined to leave nothing to chance. Obviously, the outcome of this election holds immense significance for him on more fronts than one.