Phase 7 | With no Modi magic and amid voter ire, NDA in a fix in Bihar

With no wave in its favour, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) faces a tough challenge as it tries to retain two Lok Sabha seats in Patna and four neighbouring ones in Bihar in the seventh and final phase of the Lok Sabha elections due on June 1.

Unlike the 2014 and 2019 general elections, there is no noticeable 'sympathy' for the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP). And, there is no so-called Modi magic, too.

This makes it very tough for the BJP to again expect generous support and sympathy in the parliamentary constituencies of Patna Sahib and Patliputra in Patna district and in Arrah, Buxar, Karakat and Jehanabad seats.

Prasad faces voter ire

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar himself realises that he is no more the core factor in state politics. He too is seeking votes for the NDA in the name of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The opposition coalition Mahagathbandhan, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), looks far more confident. Along with its allies including the Congress, the RJD provides the main challenge to the BJP and NDA in all the six seats. But NDA rebels have made the contests triangular in Karakat, Jahanabad and Buxar.

In Patna Sahib, sitting BJP MP Ravi Shankar Prasad, a former Union minister, has been facing noisy protests during the campaign. He was repeatedly questioned over his failure to keep his promises. In one meeting after another, Prasad admitted he has made mistakes and will not repeat them.

In rural areas, some people have vowed not to vote for him due to lack of roads, drainage and other basic facilities.

Modi’s roadshow

Nitish was shocked on May 26, when barely 500 people turned up at an election meeting in support of Ravi Shankar Prasad in Patna. There were many empty chairs in the half-barren meeting ground.

This happened nearly two weeks after Modi held a much-hyped roadshow in the heart of Patna, on May 12. BJP leaders had claimed the event would minimise anger against Ravi Shankar Prasad. But ground realities suggest otherwise.

Facing Ravi Shankar Prasad is Congress candidate Anshul Abhijeet, a PhD from Cambridge University and the son of former Lok Sabha Speaker Meera Kumar and grandson of legendary Dalit leader Jagjivan Ram.

Misa Bharti tries again

In Patliputra, BJP’s outgoing MP Ram Kirpal Yadav. a former Union minister, is eyeing a hat-trick. Although he is popular for his humbleness, anger against the Modi government could trip him.

Challenging Ram Kirpal Yadav is Misa Bharti, daughter of RJD chief and former Chief Minister Lalu Prasad. A Rajya Sabha member, Misa Bharti lost the Lok Sabha elections both in 2014 and 2019, by some 40,000 votes.

Now, her father is himself monitoring her campaign. “We hope to fill the gap (losing margin) this time,” RJD leader Ejaz Ahmad said.

In the 2020 Assembly polls, the RJD won all the six Assembly segments of the Patliputra parliamentary constituency, giving hope to Misa Bharti this time.

Bhojpuri star

In Karakat, BJP’s ally and RLM chief Upendra Kushwaha, a former Union minister, is facing the ire of the people. The entry of BJP rebel and Bhojpuri film star Pawan Singh as an independent candidate is giving sleepless nights to him. After Pawan Singh refused to withdraw from the fray against Kushwaha, the BJP expelled him.

Though the main fight in Karakat is between the BJP and CPI(ML) candidate Raja Ram Singh, Pawan Singh has made it a triangular fight. He is drawing huge crowds for his glamour and popular Bhojpuri songs.

In Jahanabad, JD-U MP Chandeshwar Prasad Chandrawanshi too has been mobbed by angry voters. His main rival is RJD’s Surendra Prasad Yadav, a former MP and minister, who lost by 1,700 votes in 2019. But the entry of former MP Arun Kumar as BSP candidate in Jahanabad has turned the tide against Chandrawanshi.

Anger against BJP

In Buxar, the BJP fielded a new face, Mithilesh Tiwary. He has been seen placating angry farmers who want compensation for land taken for a power plant.

The anti-incumbency against the Union government is also working against Tiwari. The BJP decision to pick Tiwary by denying party ticket to incumbent MP and Union minister Ashwini Kumar Choubey has forced the latter to distance himself from election campaign.

Tiwary’s main rival is RJD’s Sudhakar Singh, son of RJD state president Jagdanand Singh. The BJP’s troubles deepened after Anand Mishra, a young IPS officer of the Assam-Meghalaya batch, plunged into the battle as an independent after the BJP went back on its promise to nominate him.

Caste factor

In Arrah, BJP MP and Union minister RK Singh is seeking re-election. He has taken on CPI (ML) candidate Sudama Prasad.

Of the six constituencies going to polls on June 1, a large portion of Jahanabad, Karakat, Arrah, and a portion of Patna Sahib, were once known as the flaming fields of Bihar for caste and class rivalries between the feudal forces of landed upper castes and the agrarian castes led by Naxalites (Maoists). These places witnessed Maoist violence and caste massacres in the late 1980s and 1990s.

Now, caste equations are set to play a key role in these seats.

In Patna Sahib, Congress candidate Anshul is likely to get the votes of OBC's Koeri (Kushwaha), Dalits, Yadav and Muslims. "Anshul's mother Meera Kumar, a former IFS officer and Union minister, is a Dalit and his father Manjul Kumar, a Supreme Court lawyer, belongs to the Kushhwaha caste. Anshul is getting the overwhelming support of Dalits, and is likely to get the support of sizeable Kushwahas, who are traditional supporters of the BJP,” said Indrjeet Kumar, a hardware computer mechanic of the Jalla locality in Patna Sahib.

Ram temple card

The BJP is playing the Ram temple card to seek votes for Ravi Shankar Prasad and its other candidates. NDA leaders are banking on its traditional support base of upper castes, non-Yadav OBCs, Vaishya, EBCs and Dalits.

The main rivals in Karakat are Upendra Kushwaha of the NDA and Raja Ram Singh of the Mahagathbandhan, both from the Kushwaha caste.

Pawan Singh, the third major candidate, is a Rajput. If he earns even half the Rajput votes, it will be a major blow to Kushwaha.

In Jahanabad, Arun Kumar, who belongs to the powerful landed upper caste Bhumihar, is making things difficult for the NDA’s Chandrawanshi, an EBC. Arun Kumar decided to contest after being let down by BJP ally Chirag Paswan. A worried Nitish Kumar has invited businessman Umesh Sharma, a Bhumihar, to Jahanabad to minimise the anger in the community.

Aggressive Tejashwi

Tejashwi Yadav, who is aggressively leading the anti-BJP campaign in Bihar, is harping on economic issues as he tries to neutralise both Modi and Nitish. And it is a fact that lack of jobs and inflation are the major talking points among the people in both urban and rural pockets.

It is to be seen, however, if economic factors will overshadow Bihar’s notorious caste equations.

The BJP won a whopping 39 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar in 2019. The RJD drew a blank and the Congress got just one seat. Most political observers feel the outcome this time will be different.