Why Omar’s decision to contest Baramulla seat will spice up the polls

Omar Abdullah, Jammu and Kashmir’s former chief minister and vice-president of the National Conference (NC), has surprised everyone with his decision to contest north Kashmir’s Baramulla parliamentary constituency.

BJP's 'B' and 'C' teams

On April 12, Abdullah challenged the BJP to nominate its candidates for the north, central, and south Kashmir Lok Sabha constituencies, implying that the saffron party was relying on the performance of its alleged ‘B’ and ‘C’ teams in the Union territory. It was a veiled dig at the People’s Conference (PC) led by Sajad Lone and the Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party (JKAP) led by Altaf Bukhari.

A visibly aggressive Abdullah asserted that he would bid adieu to politics if the BJP candidates for three Lok Sabha seats in the Kashmir Valley “did not lose their security deposits”.

“If what the prime minister is saying is correct (claims that the abrogation of Article 370 brought prosperity in Jammu and Kashmir), then why are his candidates not in the field? Why is the BJP not contesting south, central, and north Kashmir?” Abdullah asked, taking a jibe at the saffron party.

NC vs PC battle in Baramulla

Abdullah’s decision to contest from the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat has a backstory and context. From 1971 to 2019, National Conference candidates emerged victorious from the Baramulla Lok Sabha segment a record nine times. The Congress has won twice, while the PDP has won only once.

In the last decade or so, the PC has consolidated its position in north Kashmir’s frontier district of Kupwara and areas such as Handwara, Sajad Lone’s hometown. While the contest in the Baramulla seat is seemingly triangular (NC-PDP-PC), the real battle in 2024 is essentially between Abdullah’s NC and Sajad Lone’s PC.

Compared to south Kashmir (now called the Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha seat) and central Kashmir’s (Srinagar) parliamentary seats, the Baramulla segment is traditionally known for its higher voter turnout. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the Baramulla constituency recorded 38.9 per cent voter turnout against Srinagar’s 14 per cent and south Kashmir’s 8.9 per cent. Areas such as Kupwara, Handwara, Langate, Uri, Trehgam, and Gurez generally see brisk voting while towns such as Baramulla, Pattan, and Sopore record a comparatively lower voter turnout.

Data leads

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, NC veteran Mohammad Akbar Lone emerged victorious by securing 1,33,426 votes (29.26 per cent vote share), beating his nearest rival, PC’s Raja Aijaz Ali, who got 1,03,193 votes (22.63 per cent vote share). Incarcerated politician and president of the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) Engineer Rashid obtained the third position, garnering 1,02,168 votes (22.41 per cent vote share).

Abdul Qayoom Wani, PDP’s then Lok Sabha candidate for the Baramulla seat, recorded a disappointing performance by securing 53,530 votes (11.74% vote share). The vote share of the Congress stood at less than 8 per cent in 2019. The last time the Congress won this seat was by Ghulam Rasool Kar in 1996 (by getting 1,10,331 votes.

That said, this constituency is known for throwing up many a surprise.

Many surprises

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, for instance, Muzaffar Hussain Baig, co-founder of the PDP, got 1,75,277 votes (14.72 per cent vote share) to register victory. NC veteran Sharief-Ud-Din Shariq came second with 1,46,058 (12.27 per cent vote share) while PC’s Salamuddin Bajad obtained third spot with 71,154 votes (5.98 per cent vote share).

In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, NC’s Sharief-Ud-Din Shariq won after polling 2,03,022 votes (19.25 per cent vote share). A decade back, the party’s Abdul Rashid Shaheen secured 84,243 votes, a vote share of nearly 44 per cent, to register victory; Shaheen also won in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections from Baramulla by getting 1,27,653 votes.

NC’s declining influence in Baramulla

If data from the past 12 Lok Sabha elections since 1971 is analysed, NC comes across as a strong contender in the Baramulla segment, where it has a dedicated cadre and support base. The party’s vote share has fluctuated in the last two decades or so, though. From a vote share of 44 per cent in 1999, the party’s vote share came down to nearly 30 per cent in 2019, primarily due to the emergence of the late Mufti Saeed’s PDP in 1999, Lone’s PC since 2008-09, and Engineer Rashid’s AIP.

When Sajad Lone contested the Lok Sabha polls for the first time in 2009, he received 65,403 votes (6.2 per cent vote share). At the moment, according to a key political analyst, “Sajad Lone is all set to poll anything between 1,25,000 and 1,50,000 votes from the seat.”

Is Sajad Lone a strong contender to Omar?

During the last six parliamentary elections (1998-2019), the NC has won the Baramulla segment a record five times while the PDP won only once (2014). Professor Saifuddin Soz, former NC leader and now a Congress loyalist, won from Baramulla in 1998 on NC’s ticket. Subsequently, NC leader AR Shaheen registered victories twice in a row, in 2004 and 2009; S Shariq won in 2009, and Akbar Lone in 2019.

'Challenging situation for Omar'

In the words of Professor Noor Ahmad Baba, Kashmir’s well-known political pundit, “Omar Abdullah has put himself in a challenging situation for several reasons.” Baba told The Federal that in north Kashmir, NC has had “weak spots” in the past, facing stiff challenges from the Jama’at-e-Islami (JeI) in areas such as Sopore and Baramulla, and from the PDP in Pattan and Kreeri, and now PC in Handwara, Kupwara, Trehgam, and Sonawari among others.

Whether Abdullah took a decision “out of compulsion” or “confidence” will be known once the results for the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat are announced.

“The party structure (cadre), the BJP tag, and vote transfer are three key factors that will matter. PC does have some senior leaders in north Kashmir but they won’t be able to transfer their votes from assembly segments to Sajad Lone,” a dedicated NC loyalist told The Federal, adding, “The National Conference holds promising prospects in the Baramulla parliament constituency, particularly with the emergence of potential alliances among the BJP allies.”

What are Sajad Lone's chances of winning?

NC supporters from north Kashmir say the absence of a dedicated support base, the BJP’s B-team tag, and the unpredictability of vote transfer are three factors that will go against Sajad Lone’s PC.

On the other hand, PC loyalists are sure that their party chief will be able to get more than one lakh votes. Apart from Handwara, Trehgam, and parts of Kupwara, PC could get votes from the Shia-dominated areas of Pattan where former PDP leader and Shia cleric Imran Reza Ansari (now secretary general PC) enjoys some clout. He won the last Assembly elections from the Pattan assembly constituency.

PC loyalists seem confident that their party will also get a good number of votes from areas such as Sonawari (Bandipora) due to another former PDP leader, Yasir Reshi, who is now a part of the PC. They are hoping to get some votes from Uri and Gurez areas due to the party’s “secret alliance” with Altaf Bukhari.

Why Article 370 abrogation may work against BJP, allies

However, in areas like Kreeri in Baramulla, from where the former PDP leader Basharat Bukhari won his assembly seat in 2014, the situation remains unknown and fluid. In other Shia-dominated areas that are now part of the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat, NC’s influential Shia leader Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi enjoys decent support. Agha Mehdi’s poignant narrative against the abrogation of Article 370 gives him an edge. It is another matter that he is NC’s candidate for the Srinagar parliamentary seat.

Tanvir Sadiq, NC’s 46-year-old chief spokesperson and communication in-charge, opines that people will come out to vote in very large numbers this time around.

“We do not take peoples’ mood for granted. After 2019, there has been no opportunity for the people in Jammu and Kashmir to express their resentment against the decisions taken on August 5, 2019,” Sadiq told The Federal.

“If what happened in August 2019 was illegal, undemocratic and unconstitutional, our people will tell the whole world and convey their protest and resentment through their vote…,” he added.

NC is confident of securing over two lakh votes in the Baramulla Lok Sabha segment. It is going to be a stiff battle with Abdullah enjoying an edge over Sajad Lone.