Bihar | In Muslim-majority Kishanganj, Hindu voters may decide who wins

In the Muslim-dominated Kishanganj parliamentary constituency in Bihar, three main contestants are Muslims. Funnily, their fate will be decided by minority Hindu voters in the second phase of Lok Sabha elections for which polling has just started.

Muslims form nearly 68 per cent of the total population of more than 17 lakh people (per Census 2011) in Kishanganj, but it is the Hindu voters who will play a major role in the poll outcome. The Hindu population is 31 per cent, just a minority.

Going by the dominant mood among the people, which was visible a day ahead of polls, Muslim votes are set to sharply divide among three candidates belonging to Surjapuri Muslims, a dominant and powerful local community that speaks the native Surjapuri dialect. But, a consolidation of Hindu votes in support of and against of any one of them will make a difference.

"Splitting of votes is certain among Surjapuris, who constitute nearly 70 per cent of the Muslims. Two other Muslim communities – Shershahbadi (roughly 20 per cent) and Kulhaiya (about 10 per cent) in Kishanganj are also a divided house, as was reflected in the last Lok Sabha polls," said Taushif Alam, a school teacher and resident of Thakurganj.

"But, the Congress won the seat in 2019 and 2014 despite a Modi wave because its candidate received the Hindu votes. This is likely to replicate in 2024 polls," Alam told The Feddral.

Harishankar Prasad, a small-time businessman in Kishanganj town, agreed that Muslims are divided. In 2019, Prasad voted for the Congress and not the JD(U), an ally of the BJP then, too. "For us, Congress is a better choice," Prasad said.

There is no lack of issues affecting thousands of people in Kishanganj, a part of the flood-prone area of Seemanchal and one of the poorest and underdeveloped pockets in the country.

A high rate of poverty, rampant unemployment and migration to earn livelihoods, poor education and healthcare facilities have been synonymous with Kishanganj for decades. Frail men, anaemic women and malnourished children are common in the rural areas of Kishanganj, in another reflection of rampant poverty.

According to officials data from the Bihar Economic Survey 2022, Kishanganj has some of the worst development statistics in state. The women literacy rate is very low, and the percentage of BPL (below poverty line) population is high. The per capita income is Rs 24,942 per annum, against the state average of Rs 32,212.

Political watchers say the candidate who gets the maximum votes among Hindus is likely to emerge the winner.

"All the candidates in Kishanganj get the share of Muslim votes they are sure of. Strangely, the media tends to overlook the Hindu vote bank in Kishanganj and only hypes up the Muslim voters. The reality is that the party which gets more Hindu votes will win," said political commentator Soroor Ahmad.

"It has been observed in the past two Lok Sabha polls that a substantial number of Hindu voters voted for Congress," he added.

Soroor said the problem with the JD(U) this time is that its party machinery all over the state is in shambles. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who also heads the party, has lost his credibility by changing sides time and again. Earlier this year, he left the INDIA bloc to rejoin the NDA.

With Nitish's popularity graph no longer what it used to be in the past, the party's support base stands eroded. "The possibility of BJP votes getting transfer to JD(U) does not appear to be strong. Congress still has an edge," said Soroor.

There is a direct fight between the Congress and the AIMIM on the ground. Sensing this, AIMIM chief Owaisi camped in Kishanganj for a few days to campaign for Akhtarul Iman.

In 2019, Iman came in third with 2.95 lakh votes, with the JD(U) bagging 3.32 lakh votes and the Congress, 3.67 lakh votes. This data in itself reflects how Muslim votes get divided among Muslim candidates.

Owaisi appealed to voters to vote for the AIMIM on Friday (April 26), the day of offering prayers to defeat 'Satan' (Shaitan, or evil forces).

Per reports on the ground, the strong presence of the AIMIM in Kishanganj is a blessing in disguise for the Congress this time. The grand old party is likely to gain more support among Hindus to challenge and counter the Owaisi brand of politics.

"We voted the Congress in the previous election to defeat Owaisi's AIMIM. For us, there is no choice other than the Congress. It is better than any other party because it never plays the religion card or tries to polarise the Muslim-dominated Kishanganj," said Ramsewak Singh, a retired government official.

"The Congress is more acceptable to Hindu voters than AIMIM. This will work in favour of the Congress, and the party will make a hat-trick this time despite the fact that some people are unhappy with the party candidate," said Mohd Samshad, a resident of Kishanganj town.

However, the clear writing on the wall is that the AIMIM is growing in Seemanchal, mainly in Kisganganj. The party first tasted electoral success in 2019, when it won the by-election in the Kishanganj Assembly seat, defeating the BJP. In the Lok Sabha election that year, it got nearly 3 lakh votes in the Kishanganj parliamentary seat, a gain for the party.

In the 2020 Bihar Assembly polls, AIMIM won five seats – two each in Kishanganj and Purnea and one in Araria districts. But, in 2022, four of five AIMIM MLAs joined the RJD. Owaisi's party is now left with one MLA – Akhtarul Iman, who is state president of the party and contesting Lok Sabha elections from Kishanganj.

Social analyst Satyanarayan Madan said Kishanganj is the only seat in the state where Hindus vote with a minority mindset. Their voting pattern is vastly different from the rest of the state.

"There are two factors behind polarisation in the constituency. Earlier it was the BJP and now Owaisi's AIMIM. In the past, when the BJP contested in Kishanganj, it tried to polarise Hindus. This time, the Owaisi factor is working in this direction," said Madan.

The BJP and the RSS are active on the Hindutva agenda in Seemanchal though the Muslim population is huge. They have sought to consolidate the Hindu vote bank consisting of all non-Muslim linguistic and ethnic groups in the region. Topics frequently touched upon include alleged illegal infiltration (mainly Bangladeshi Muslims), cow slaughter, love jihad, increasing population of Muslims and decreasing population of Hindus.

All eyes are on this constituency since, in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Kishanganj was the only parliamentary seat won by the opposition Congress in Bihar. The BJP-led NDA lost the seat even as it swept the 39 other Lok Sabha seats in the state.

This time, it is going to be rather tough for the Congress to retain the seat, considering the resurgence of the AIMIM and its increasing appeal among the majority Muslim community. Owaisi's party is particularly appealing to youths in impoverished Kishanganj, bordering Nepal and West Bengal and very close to the Indo-Bangladesh border.

Like elsewhere, Muslims in Kishanganj are vocal in admitting that they are opposed to the BJP. "We will not vote for the JD(U), an ally of the BJP. Voting for the JD(U) will strengthen the BJP and Narendra Modi, which we don't cand," said Shafi Ahmad, a mason who also grows maize in his 1-acre land.

Kishanganj elected Muslim candidates in all elections except in 1967, when Hindu candidate Lakhan Lal Kapoor won the seat.

For decades, Kishanganj has been considered a stronghold of the Congress. Even in 1989, when there was an anti-Congress and pro-Janata Dal wave, Congress candidate MJ Akbar, a journalist, won the seat.

In the mid-1980, IFS officer-turned-politician Syed Shahabuddin, the Janata Party candidate, was also elected from Kishanganj despite a Congress wave in the state then.

Shahabuddin, who emerged as a loud champion of Muslims and was vociferous in his views on the Babri Masjid and Shah Bano case, was elected the second time from Kishanganj in 1991, when he defeated the Congress's MJ Akbar.