Lok Sabha polls: Why AIMIM's Gujarat entry is a big help for BJP

The entry of Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) into the Lok Sabha contest in Gujarat has raised many an eyebrow. A fortnight back, news broke that the party is set to field candidates in Bharuch and Gandhinagar constituencies for the coming Lok Sabha polls.

Muslims form about 22 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively, of the electorates in Bharuch and Gandhinagar constituencies. Logically, it makes sense for the AIMIM to contest there.

Yet, political experts point out that the move will only end up splitting the Muslim votes that would normally have gone to the Congress in full. Net-net, AIMIM's entry in the Lok Sabha polls in Gujarat will help only the BJP.

KHAM experiment

The Muslims in Gujarat have been a loyal vote bank of the Congress since 1970s with Madhavsinh Solanki’s social experiment of 'KHAM' to consolidate Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslims under one umbrella. The electoral experiment had been Congress's winning formula in Gujarat until the BJP came to power in 1992 by consolidating the Hindu votes.

“Over the years, especially post 2002 riots, the Congress has failed to bring an alternate to the BJP’s aggressive Hindutva politics," Hemant Desai, a sociologist and political analyst based out of Ahmedabad, told The Federal. "In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the saffron party was using the Uri incident, surgical strike and evoking Sardar Patel to consolidate Hindu votes.

"The Congress, on the other hand, opted for an almost silent campaign that failed to portray any solution to BJP’s Hindutva politics. Naturally, a large section of minorities easily switched to AIMIM when the party contested the 2022 Assembly polls.”

Cutting into Congress’ vote bank

According to Desai, the figures of the 2022 state polls clearly suggest that the AIMIM cut into the Congress's minority vote bank. This helped the BJP.

“But why would the BJP, which won 154 seats out of 182 in the Assembly elections recently, and all the 26 seats in the Lok Sabha polls in 2019, need help to win in 2024?” he asked.

One has to understand that in a state like Gujarat that has been home to extreme right-wing politics, winning is not enough for the BJP, he explained. In 2022, the party broke the winning record of the Congress's leader leader in the state, Madhavsinh Solanki.

“With 154 seats they ensured that the Opposition had no voice in the Assembly. In 2024, the BJP has set another humungous target of winning all the Lok Sabha seats in the state by a margin of 5 lakh votes. They have to make sure that the Opposition doesn’t get to consolidate its vote bank. That is where AIMIM comes in the picture,” Desai added.

Riding piggyback on local polls

However, AIMIM party sources in Gujarat told The Federal that the party’s decision to contest Lok Sabha polls came in view of its success in the 2021 civic body polls in Godhra (Panchmahal), Modasa (Sabarkantha), Ahmedabad, and Bharuch municipalities.

The party had also contested in the Gujarat Assembly polls in December 2022 from 13 seats but had failed to win a single seat. In fact, it garnered fewer votes than NOTA in eight out of the 13 constituencies it contested.

“Whether we win or not, we are here to mark our presence in Gujarat," said Sabbir Kabuliwala, Gujarat chief of AIMIM. "The polls will help us in making our presence felt within the minority community, who we think has never been adequately represented in the state.

"Besides, both Bharuch and Gandhinagar seats have a considerable Muslim population and we are hopeful of making a mark amongst the Muslim voters.”

BJP’s call a tall order

“In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Amit Shah had won by a margin of about 1.5 lakh. The Congress had polled the second highest vote even though there were 17 candidates, including seven Muslim independent candidates, bagging a significant number of votes," recalled Manish Doshi, spokesperson for Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee (GPCC).

"So, if Shah has to win by a margin of 5 lakh as the party claims is their target, BJP has to make sure not only the Hindu votes across all castes are in their bag but also there are candidates who cut into the Opposition vote bank. The AIMIM candidates will definitely perform better than a few independent candidates.”

“Similarly, in Bharuch, AAP’s candidate Chaiter Vasava represents the INDIA bloc and has a good chance of winning the seat. Bharuch is dominated by Muslims in urban areas and tribals in rural areas. While Vasava, a tribal leader, has a good hold on the tribal belt, Congress support will garner him Muslim votes as well. So, we were not surprised when AIMIM declared it will contest from Bharuch as well,” added Doshi.

Dwindling fortune of Congress

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP’s sitting six-term MP Mansukh Vasava won Bharuch with a 55.54 per cent vote share and the Congress secured 26.3 per cent of the votes. In Gandhinagar, Union Home Minister Amit Shah bagged 69.7 per cent of the votes, while the Congress candidate secured 26.3 per cent. This year, too, the BJP has fielded Mansukh Vasava from Bharuch and Amit Shah from Gandhinagar.

“We are very optimistic about Bharuch. With the Congress leaving the seat to AAP, it leaves a scope for a candidate from AIMIM, who can bag the minority votes,” claimed Kabuliwala, adding that the party shall be announcing its candidates after the month of Ramzan.

AIMIM cutting into Congress votes

The Dariapur seat in Ahmedabad, where Muslims constitute the majority of voters, used to be a Congress bastion. However, in the 2022 state polls, two-time sitting Congress MLA from Dariapur Gyasuddin Shaikh lost to BJP's Kaushik Jain by a margin of 5,243 votes.

Shaikh bagged 55,847 votes, while BJP’s Jain rival bagged 61,090 ballots. The AIMIM candidate who polled 4,164 votes and the Muslim independent candidate who bagged 1771 votes made the winning difference for the BJP.

In the Bapunagar seat, Ahmedabad Congress’s sitting MLA Himmatsinh Patel lost to BJP's Dineshsinh Kushwaha by a margin of 12,070 votes. AIMIM and Samajwadi Party's (SP) Muslim candidates together polled 10,055 votes, which again went in BJP’s favour.

How AAP and AIMIM helped BJP

In the minority-dominated Mangrol seat in Junagadh, two-time sitting Congress MLA Babubhai Vaja lost to BJP's Kargatiya Lakhabhai by 22,501 votes, even as the AAP and the AIMIM polled 34,314 and 10,789 votes, respectively handing out the victory to the BJP.

In Jamalpur–Khadia seat in Ahmedabad, the Congress’s Imran Khedawala won a third consecutive term. However, his winning margin was reduced to 58,487 votes from 75,000 in the 2017 Assembly polls. AIMIM's state president Sabir Kabliwala bagged 15,677 votes, obviously cutting into his vote share.

In the Godhra seat, the BJP fielded Congress turncoat CK Raulji, who defeated his Congress rival Rashmitaben Chauhan by 35,198 votes. Raulji bagged 96,223 votes, while Chauhan got 61,025. Here again, the AIMIM cut into the Congress votes as its candidate Hasan Kachaba bagged 9,508 votes.

Noticeably, the Congress had been winning the seat since 2002 post the riots in the same year. In 2017, the BJP won the seat for the first time, but its victory margin was just 358 votes.