Lok Sabha polls | What low voter turnout means for Kerala’s political parties

It was 11:47 pm when the last voter cast his vote in Booth No. 141 at Mudappilavil LP School in the Vadakara constituency of Kerala. Such a late extension of polling hours is uncommon in Kerala, yet despite this, the voter turnout did not surpass that of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections or the 2021 assembly elections.

According to data from the Election Commission as of 4 pm on April 27, the voter turnout in the state stands at 70.28%. Pathanamthitta constituency recorded the lowest turnout at 63.35%, while Kannur had the highest at 76.92%.

In 2019, when the Congress-led UDF secured a landslide victory in Kerala, the voter turnout reached 77.84%, marking a 3.4% increase from the previous elections. This surge is widely regarded as a direct result of a substantial wave favouring the UDF. This wave was attributed to several factors, including the Sabarimala controversy, where the LDF government was criticised for supporting women entering the Hindu shrine following a Supreme Court verdict. Additionally, minority consolidation was influenced by Rahul Gandhi's candidature in the Wayanad constituency.

Cause of concern for Congress

The dip in turnout is considerable this time and it is counted as very significant in the poll outcome to be declared on June 4. It is causing concern among the Congress and its allies. It appears that the anticipated wave in favour of the Opposition Congress-led United Democratic Front did not materialise as expected. This decline has subdued the optimism of the Opposition which confidently predicted victory in all 20 seats.

Even though senior UDF leaders expressed confidence of winning all 20 seats in the state, there was widespread concern about the lower voter turnout and delay in voting at various booths across Kerala.

“The election process appears to have been marred by irregularities, as evidenced by the undue delay in polling. It is reasonable to suspect that bureaucratic negligence may have contributed to this delay, warranting a thorough investigation,” said Leader of Opposition VD Satheesan. This delay may have contributed to the decline in voter turnout. Those who believe that this was a deliberate act cannot be faulted for their “skepticism”, he added.

AICC general secretary and UDF candidate in Alappuzha, KC Venugopal, also voiced his concern regarding the irregularities in the election process. “Ninety per cent of the booths where voting got delayed or irregularities occurred were UDF-majority ones. The state government was clearly trying to sabotage the election process using its officials,” he alleged.

The UDF had relied heavily on the perceived anti-incumbency sentiment against the Pinarayi Vijayan-led state government. However, the lower voter turnout suggests that the Congress’ aspirations may not have translated into actual votes, based on historical trends.

LDF treads with caution

On the other hand, LDF leaders were treading very cautiously, expressing their expectation of a swing in their favour. They stated their ambition to replicate the feat achieved in 2004 when they secured 18 out of 20 seats.

The Federal met the LDF candidate from Ponnani constituency, KS Hamsa, just after the polling. “Realistically, the trend seems to be encouraging. The dip in voting is crucial in the IUML-dominated areas. The disgruntled IUML workers might have abstained from voting or have cross-voted for me. A swing of 1-2% of votes could give us victory,” Hamsa told The Federal.

In the Thrissur constituency, where a triangular contest is unfolding among K Muralidharan of Congress, VS Sunil Kumar of CPI, and actor-turned-politician Suresh Gopi of BJP, all three candidates have expressed confidence of emerging victorious. Gopi even elaborated on his plans for the future course.

“I have approached top party leadership to grant me a grace period of approximately two years to pursue filmmaking and continue my social activities. This break would allow me to prepare adequately for the assembly elections in 2026. My aspiration was to serve as an MP, and with the supportive ecosystem within my party, I believe I can excel in this role, potentially achieving more than I could as a minister.”

The LDF camp, on the other hand, was relying on the reports they are getting from the ground. They seem to be confident as the booth level reports suggest a consolidation of minority votes in their favour.

“There is no sign of a massive swing in favour of the UDF, but the members of the Muslim community who have no affiliation with any community organisations have voted for us en bloc,” a CPI(M) leader and former MLA from Guruvayoor told The Federal. “Last time, our calculations failed big time, and this time we are more conscious of it. We are confident that Sunil Kumar will win and Suresh Gopi will finish third.”

K Muraleedharan, however, blamed the LDF for cross-voting to the BJP and asserted that if Suresh Gopi were to finish second, the blame would lie with them, as he was overly confident of winning the seat. Thrissur recorded 72.79% turned as opposed to the 77.9 % in 2019.

‘No significant shift in votes’

In Thiruvananthapuram, where Congress heavyweight Shashi Tharoor is taking on Union Minister Rajiv Chandrasekhar and CPI veteran Pannian Raveendran, the turnout stands at 66.46%, compared to 73.7% in 2019. The assembly segments where the BJP is comparatively strong, marked the lowest turnout, while the coastal assembly segments recorded better voting, providing some consolation for Tharoor. The LDF is also pinning its hopes on this, as they had been pushed to third place in the last two elections. In the assembly elections, the LDF had won all the urban constituencies in Thiruvananthapuram.

In Pathanamthitta, where sitting MP Anto Antony of the Congress is pitted against former Minister TM Thomas Isaac, and the turncoat Congress leader Anil Antony of the BJP, the voter turnout was recorded the lowest in the state. This provides some expectation to Isaac's camp. Interestingly, it is in the UDF strongholds of Poonjar and Kanjirappally where the turnout has significantly decreased.

“We cannot predict the result from such numbers in this era of voting. One thing we can conclude from this is that there is no significant swing or shift in votes. This could indicate that there is no predominant anti-government voting pattern. However, this cannot be interpreted as favourable for any particular front. Last time there was a huge sway in votes in favour of Rahul Gandhi which seems to be absent this time,” observes CL Thomas, senior editor and political commentator.