Lok Sabha polls 2024: Why Gujarat's Bharuch has become a thorn in AAP-Cong alliance talks

Not Punjab or Delhi but a lone constituency in Gujarat has held up formalisation of the alliance between the Congress party and Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.

Tedious negotiations between the two INDIA bloc partners had broadly concluded earlier this week, with the leaders from both sides indicating unofficially that though the 13 Lok Sabha constituencies of Punjab were excluded from the alliance, the Congress had conceded seats in Delhi, Haryana and even in Gujarat to sweeten the deal for AAP. To reciprocate the gesture, the AAP, those privy to the deliberations told The Federal, had agreed to leave the Chandigarh seat for the Congress and also withdraw its already declared candidate, Venzy Viegas, from the South Goa constituency.

Part of the deal was also that the AAP would withdraw candidates it has fielded from Assam’s Guwahati, Sonitpur and Dibrugarh seats.

On Thursday, leaders from both parties had unofficially informed journalists that the pact would see the AAP contest four of Delhi’s seven Lok Sabha seats, leaving three for the Congress while the Congress would cede two seats for Kejriwal’s outfit in Gujarat and one in Haryana. A formal announcement of the seat-sharing formula, sources in both parties had hinted, was expected on Friday (February 23).

'Under pressure from BJP'

AAP leaders Sandeep Pathak, Atishi (both part of the negotiations) and Saurabh Bhardwaj had also claimed during an official briefing that their party was “under pressure” from the BJP to break the alliance with the Congress and that if it did so, central probe agencies would “not arrest Arvind Kejriwal” for his alleged role in cases that are being probed by the ED and the CBI.

Through Friday, however, while Pathak, Atishi and Bhardwaj of the AAP and Delhi Congress leaders such as Arvinder Singh Lovely, Sandeep Dikshit and Haroon Yusuf continued to claim that the two sides were on the cusp of an announcement on the seat-sharing deal, no such declaration came.

Bharuch headache for Congress

Instead, voices of dissent over the Congress ceding the Bharuch constituency in Gujarat – the home turf of Congress stalwart and former party president Sonia Gandhi’s trusted political advisor, late Ahmed Patel – began ringing loudly. Patel’s son, Faisal Patel and daughter Mumtaz Patel, both vying for a ticket from Bharuch, went public declaring they would not support the alliance if the Congress high command left the constituency for AAP, which has already declared its Dediapada MLA and tribal face Chaitar Vasava as its Bharuch candidate.

By Friday evening, confusion over whose kitty the Bharuch constituency was falling into reached a feverish pitch, with Faisal taking to X to thank former Congress president Rahul Gandhi for having “listened to me and the Bharuch Congress workers” and even promising the Wayanad MP that “I will live up to your faith by winning the Bharuch Lok Sabha.” Faisal’s post on X suggested that the Congress had not only prevailed upon AAP to let go of its claim on the Bharuch seat but had even cleared his candidature without following the established intra-party procedure of vetting candidates through the central election committee.

Faisal’s declaration caught many, including his sister Mumtaz, by surprise. Mumtaz told The Federal that she was “confident that the party high command will listen to the pleas of our cadre in Bharuch and keep the constituency with the Congress” but denied that a final call had been taken on who the party would field from the seat. Congress and AAP leaders who are part of the seat-sharing negotiations, also told The Federal that Bharuch was “still under discussion”. Leaders on the Congress side added, “We have made it clear to the AAP that we cannot withdraw our claim on Bharuch at any cost... Rahul has also told the Congress president (Mallikarjun Kharge) this is not acceptable because Bharuch is beyond political adjustment; our sentiments are deeply attached with it because of Ahmed Patel and his legacy”.

AAP leader takes a dig

Meanwhile, AAP leader Gopal Italia, who had helmed his party’s Gujarat unit during the 2022 assembly polls, also took potshots at the Congress and the Patel siblings on X. In a series of posts late Friday, Italia reminded the Congress that it hadn’t won the Bharuch seat since Ahmed Patel’s 1989 defeat (the late Congress veteran had won Bharuch in the 1977, 1980 and 1984 Lok Sabha polls) and that even in 2009, when the Congress bagged 11 of the state’s 26 constituencies, Bharuch had elected a BJP MP. In a stinging broadside at the Congress for insisting to keep the Bharuch seat with it for emotional reasons.

Italia even commented that the Rae Bareli and Amethi seats had “immense sentimental value” for the Congress but given the “current time and circumstances” the party had given these up. The AAP leader’s remarks come against the backdrop of Sonia Gandhi, who has been representing the Rae Bareli seat in Lok Sabha since 2004, now opting out of electoral politics and taking the Rajya Sabha route to Parliament while suspense continues on whether Rahul, who had lost the 2019 polls from his family turf of Amethi, would seek re-election from the seat or from Rae Bareli in the upcoming polls or stick to his Wayanad constituency.

Italia’s comments are unlikely to go down well with the Congress, especially since they aren’t limited to undermining the legacy of Ahmed Patel or taking a swipe at Faisal and Mumtaz but also project the Gandhis as leaders who deserted their ancestral family bastions due to the changing political landscape. AAP insiders, however, assert that the party’s defiance over the Bharuch seat isn’t merely a negotiating tactic. Leaders close to Vasava, the AAP’s candidate from Bharuch, told The Federal that the party would “prefer to break the alliance with Congress in Gujarat rather than give up its claim on Bharuch.... if the Congress insists on fielding Faisal or Mumtaz contesting from here, Chaitar may even contest as an independent candidate”.

Why Bharuch is important

Bharuch is a seat with large concentrations of tribal and Muslim voters. Vasava is currently the AAP’s most important tribal face in Gujarat and party insiders say it was his personal popularity among the tribal community that had helped the party chip away a large chunk of tribal votes from the Congress in the 2022 assembly polls. By declaring Vasava as the AAP candidate from Bharuch at a time when he was in jail on charges that he claimed were politically motivated, Kejriwal had sought to solidify his party’s grip on the tribal vote bank before it began to return to the Congress or slide towards the BJP. Now out on bail, Vasava too has been addressing public gatherings in Bharuch and beyond, playing the martyr and painting both BJP and Congress as “anti-tribal” parties.

“Had we not declared him as our candidate from Bharuch, we would have had no problem in giving up the seat to the Congress but we can’t do that now as it would send a very negative signal to the tribal voters which will not just harm us but even the Congress in the Lok Sabha polls... if we concede the seat to Faisal or Mumtaz, they will not get tribal votes because the community will see them as people who denied a fierce advocate of tribal rights a Lok Sabha ticket... the incumbent BJP MP (six-term MP Mansukh Vasava) is also a tribal and he will benefit because Chaitar may still contest as an independent, which will further divide the Opposition’s vote,” a Gujarat AAP leader said.

Patel siblings at loggerheads

Congress and AAP leaders from Gujarat also claim that the Patel siblings too are fighting each other over who between them should get to contest from Bharuch. “If Mumtaz gets the Congress ticket, even Faisal may contest as an independent; he has already been claiming that he will fight the election irrespective of whether his party gives or denies him the ticket. Mumtaz has been working at the grassroots for over a year and if the Congress gets Bharuch but decides to field Faisal, she may not work for the party. In such a situation, it is better that the ticket is given to AAP because Chaitar can draw tribal votes and will get Muslim votes by default because the BJP won’t get minority votes anyway,” an AAP leader said.

Congress sources claim that the party will make a fresh bid on Saturday to convince AAP to give up its claim on Bharuch and seek “any other seat in the state in exchange”. If the offer is turned down, Congress insiders fear the alliance may either come to naught entirely or, in the best-case scenario, exclude Gujarat just as it does Punjab, where both sides failed to prevail on their local leaders to accept a seat-sharing formula.