Left, Congress, BJP issue conflicting poll readings for Thrissur seat

Joffy Kurien, a CPI(M) worker from Pookkod in the Thrissur constituency of Kerala, has a thorough understanding of the 1,000-odd voters in his booth, which falls under Ward Number 43, Kaveed North, of the Guruvayoor municipality.

He and his comrades have visited every house in the ward except some occupied by hardcore BJP-RSS workers. He can identify almost every voter and their political affiliation. Joffy is one of the workers his party banks on to assess the number of votes its candidate will win.

Yet, Joffy, the seasoned grassroots-level party worker, is not entirely confident this time. He admits that he could not gauge the undercurrents among the so-called unbiased voters.

The Thrissur Lok Sabha constituency comprises the seven Assembly segments of Thrissur, Ollur, Puthukkad, Manalur, Guruvayur, Nattika and Irinjalakuda.

LDF's expectations

“Obviously, we have a calculation, and we are confident that we could sustain our supremacy in the area. However, with film star Suresh Gopi entering the fray, we cannot predict where a vote might go if it is not cast in our favour this time,” Joffy told The Federal.

It is noteworthy that Pookkod is among the regions where the LDF anticipates a significant advantage for its candidate VS Sunil Kumar. Per the LDF's analysis after the polls, it enjoys a comfortable lead in the constituency, with six assembly segments leaning in its favour.

Thrissur, however, might be a close race. What’s intriguing is that, according to the LDF, Suresh Gopi is expected to come in the third place in all these segments.

Minority community backing

“This time, it's evident that the minority community is solidly backing us, a sentiment we've observed first-hand on the ground. With Sunil Kumar's significant influence in the region, particularly in the Manaloor, Nattika, and Irinjalakkuda segments, we expect to secure a comfortable lead of around 50,000 votes,” said KV Abdulkhader, CPI(M) leader and former MLA of Guruvayoor.

According to the estimate compiled by the LDF district committee, the alliance is projected to lead by a margin of 5,000-7,000 votes in Guruvayoor, 20,000 in Nattika, and 17,000 in the Manalur Assembly segments.

Puthukkad is expected to provide them with 7,000-10,000 votes, while Ollur and Irinjalakkuda are estimated to yield 5,000 votes each. Thrissur is anticipated to be a closely contested race.

Close contest in Thrissur

“Suresh Gopi may increase his vote share, but is expected to fall short of 3.25 lakh votes, ultimately landing in the third position,” said Abdulkhader.

In contrast, K Muraleedharan, the UDF candidate and former Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) president, offered a political analysis rather than relying on statistics in the post-poll assessment.

He expressed confidence in his victory, predicting that the LDF would likely secure the second position, with the BJP trailing in the third.

Muraleedharan reiterated the accusation of a "secret deal" struck between the CPI(M) and BJP in Thrissur, asserting that Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan would bear responsibility if the BJP were to claim the second spot. “This tacit understanding between the BJP and the CPI(M) was evident in Nattika and Guruvayoor constituencies,” he alleged.

Tough fights in Nattika, Puthukkad

The Congress, through its booth-level assessments, expects to have a fair chance of taking the lead in theThrissur, Ollur, Irinjalakkuda, Manaloor, and Guruvayoor segments. However, the Nattika and Puthukkad segments are expected to be closely contested.

“We have sensed a positive sentiment among the voters. Although we haven't been able to precisely measure its extent, we are confident of winning the constituency by a margin of at least 25,000 votes. Last time, our party couldn't even anticipate the scale of victory, let alone engage in statistical projections like the LDF does. Everyone witnessed the outcome of their calculations last time,” a senior Congress leader from Thrissur district told The Federal.

Leaders are cautious in the light of reports about Muraleedharan levelling serious allegations against the district leadership Congress over financial management and the effectiveness of the campaign. The concerns remain despite his public denial of these allegations.

BJP banking on Suresh Gopi

The BJP camp is presenting a starkly different narrative compared to both the LDF and UDF. The party is confident it will win the Thrissur Lok Sabha constituency, with Suresh Gopi securing over 4 lakh votes.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Suresh Gopi, then too the BJP candidate, managed to obtain 2.9 lakh votes, representing a significant vote share of 28.2 per cent. This was notably higher than the 2014 elections, when BJP candidate KP Sreeshan garnered just over 1 lakh votes in the same constituency.

In 2019, UDF candidate TN Prathapan secured a resounding victory with 4.2 lakh votes, constituting 39.84 per cent of the total vote share. Rajaji Mathews Thomas from the CPI received 3.2 lakh votes, accounting for 30.85 per cent of the votes.

In the subsequent Assembly elections of 2016, BJP candidates secured 2.4 lakh votes across the seven Assembly segments falling within the Thrissur Lok Sabha constituency. However, in 2021, this tally decreased to 1.8 lakh.

Changing fortunes

Notably, Suresh Gopi, who contested from the Thrissur Assembly seat, achieved a personal milestone by securing 40,457 votes, marking an all-time high for the BJP in this constituency. Despite finishing third behind the LDF and UDF candidates, his increased vote count suggests a growing support base for the party in the region.

“Until the last lap, we were not in the first place, particularly until the Pooram controversy arose. However, after that, the situation changed significantly in our favour. Now, we anticipate Suresh Gopi crossing the finish line first with UDF trailing in the second place,” said an RSS leader. (Last month, the Thrissur Pooram festival witnessed dramatic scenes after the Thiruvambady Devaswom stopped the ceremonies abruptly, citing “unwanted restrictions by the police”.)

Interestingly, both the UDF and the LDF assess the NDA to be in the third spot, while the NDA itself positions the UDF as the runner-up in the race. Unlike the UDF or the NDA, the LDF benefits from a mechanism for assessing potential votes for or against it, thanks to the organisational reach of the CPI(M) and the CPI.

Ability to asses voters

The Congress lacks such a mechanism, but the RSS possesses one. However, the key distinction between the communist party structure and that of the RSS lies in the fact that the latter did not focus on electoral politics until recently.

Indeed, the RSS has been active since the period of the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, yet Hindu nationalists have never come close to winning a significant position in Kerala, barring a couple of occasions in Thiruvananthapuram.

On the other hand, the LDF's assessment has shown serious flaws, particularly evidenced by its rout in 2019, which it failed to anticipate. The alliance’s organisational assessment has faltered with the advent of social media and the emergence of an urban crowd that is tech-savvy but is less actively engaged in day-to-day politics.

Urbanisation has indeed taken a toll on grassroots-level political workers.

Increasing challenges

“In municipalities and corporations, identifying individuals has become increasingly challenging. In IT townships like Kakkanad in Kochi and Kazhakkoottam in Thiruvananthapuram, the young tech-savvy crowd is particularly elusive, making it difficult to gauge their political affiliations. This poses a significant challenge for us in preparing booth-level assessments,” said Anees Ibrahim, an All India Youth Federation (AIYF) worker in Thiruvananthapuram.

On the day of polling in Thrissur, a controversy erupted when LDF and UDF workers accused the BJP of enrolling hundreds of voters from outside the constituency, falsely claiming them as tenants of apartment complexes in the town. Neither locals nor Booth Level Officers could identify or verify them, raising concerns about their legitimacy as voters.

“In situations like this, it's beneficial to engage professional agencies to conduct studies such as pre-poll or exit polls. While we have made some attempts in this regard, it's clear that in future elections, this practice will become the norm,” said Rajith Chandran who was part of a team that handled the digital campaign for some of the UDF candidates in the state.

Projected tally

According to claims made by the political fronts, the UDF is confident of winning all 20 Lok Sabha constituencies, even though it will face tough fights in five of them.

Meanwhile, the LDF asserts victory in 12, and the NDA claims victory in five, with certainty in two.

However, each front relies on its own post-poll assessment from grassroots sources, two of which are likely to prove inaccurate.