Karnataka: After Modi visit, election focus moves from Hindutva to caste

With only days left before the Lok Sabha battle starts in Karnataka, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears jittery while the ruling Congress seems confident of finishing on top. Except for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma, the state BJP doesn’t seem to have any political plank for seeking votes.

BJP leaders in Karnataka confess they are running low on ideas to match the strategies constantly being changed by the Congress.

Tough for BJP

“It looks like an uphill struggle to match our previous best of winning 25 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka,” a senior BJP functionary admitted to The Federal.

The BJP has been hit by a serious lack of unity as well as unhappy cadres following an alliance with foe-turned-friend Janata Dal (Secular).

Also, rebellions in some parts of the state have become a cause of concern for BJP leaders, especially former chief minister BS Yediyurappa and his son and BJP state president BY Vijayendra.

Modi factor

The saffron party, which hoped Modi's visit to Mysuru and Mangaluru would boost its confidence, now looks disappointed.

BJP leaders had thought that Modi will use his ‘magic wand’ to push a new narrative to counter the Congress focus on regionalism, federalism, guarantees and the losses Karnataka has suffered due to decline in tax devolution and grants-in-aid from the Centre.

However, Modi played the Hindutva card hard in Mysuru and accused INDIA bloc, especially the Congress, of trying to harm Sanatana Dharma.

Karnataka pride

“The Congress had expected some assertion from Modi on issues pertaining to the discrimination against Karnataka as well as river water disputes. But Modi’s silence on these burning issues and making Hindutva a plank has provided an issue on a platter to us,” a senior Congress functionary said.

According to Congress sources, the party has now made “Karnataka’s pride” and “My tax, my right” as a major poll campaign. Besides, the Congress plans to confront Hindutva agenda with a caste arithmetic.

Dominant groups

The allocation of Lok Sabha tickets by major political parties has triggered a controversy over a disproportionate share going to the Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities. The Congress and the BJP-JD(S) alliance have both allocated nearly half their tickets to these two dominant communities.

The Congress has fielded five Lingayats and seven Vokkaligas while the BJP and JD(S) have endorsed nine Lingayats and five Vokkaligas.

The representation for Vokkaligas and Lingayats is said to exceed 65 per cent though their combined population is only 27 per cent.

BJP blues

Party sources say the BJP is in serious trouble due to the discontent brewing over selection of candidates. The Veerashaiva-Lingayat community is upset with the treatment meted out to it while picking candidates.

Attempts by the BJP to woo the Vokkaliga community and minority voters by aligning with the JD(S) has partially failed to yield results as Congress state president and deputy chief minister DK Shivakumar, a Vokkaliga leader himself, is determined to foil the saffron party over Vokkaligas.

Some other developments are also working in favour of the Congress.

Wooing Dalits

JD(S) leader and former chief minister HD Kumaraswamy antagonised women voters by making controversial remarks.

Chief Minister Siddaramaiah is making every attempt to win over the backward groups, minorities and Dalits as his backers call him the unquestionable leader of the backward classes after Devaraj Urs in Karnataka.

Prominent Dalit leader V Srinivas Prasad has softened his stand towards the Congress and did not attend the Modi rally in Mysuru. The alleged phone tapping of Vokkaliga seer when Kumaraswamy was the chief minister has upset many.

Mutt vs BJP

The Panchamasali (a major mutt of Veerashaiva-Lingayat community) seer has barred the entry of BJP candidates to the mutt, accusing the party of using the community as vote bank.

All this benefits the Congress, which hopes to upset the BJP apple cart by winning at least 17 of 28 Lok Sabha constituencies in Karnataka.

Speaking to The Federal, Vachanananda Swami, head of the Veerashaiva Lingayat Panchamasali Guru Peetha at Harihar, confirmed the bar on entry of BJP candidates to the mutt.

BJP MP quits

On the other hand, Siddaramaiah is trying his best to woo the Veerashaiva Lingayat community. Over 160 Lingayat mutt heads felicitated him. They are pleased that Siddaramaiah has declared Basavanna as a cultural ambassador.

Meanwhile, outgoing BJP MP from Koppal Karadi Sanganna has quit the party and is set to join the Congress. He is a powerful Lingayat leader from the Panchamasali sub-sect. This has come as a shot in the arm for the Congress.

Vokkaliga heartland

Both Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar have employed all resources to capture the Vokkaliga heartland in Karnataka. Of the 14 Lok Sabha seats, Vokkaliga candidates are fighting against candidates from other communities too in 11 places.

Considering the ongoing battle for supremacy in the Vokkaliga heartland, it appears Shivakumar is gaining the upper hand against his opponent Kumaraswamy.

Shivakumar is portraying Kumaraswamy as anti-Vokkaliga by accusing him of tapping the telephone of Vokkaliga seer Nirmalananda Swamy, head of Adichunchanagiri Mutt.

Dalit swing

Meanwhile, an internal survey conducted by the Congress indicates that the Dalit vote could give the party a boost in seven reserved constituencies.

A senior Congress leader said: “A perceptible Dalit consolidation appears to be happening in Karnataka, which could give the Congress an edge.”

Former Rajya Sabha member L Hanumanthaiah told The Federal that this consolidation could work in favour of the Congress in Kalaburagi, Vijayapura, Chitradurga, Kolar and Chamarajanagar besides Raichur and Ballari.

Billawa trouble

A section of the BJP argues that while the Dalit Right would vote for the Congress, the Dalit Left will choose the BJP. But some Dalit leaders feel that this time the Dalit vote is tipped to go to the Congress.

The BJP had planned a mega rally in Mangaluru during Modi’s visit. It was axed and Modi conducted a roadshow in Mysuru.

Sources in the BJP say the change was to placate the Billawa community, which is seeking political representation.

Congress strategy

“Unfulfilled promises and a feeling of being taken for granted by the BJP are leading to a potential shift in the Billava allegiances in coastal Karnataka,” says Billava community leader Satyajit Suratkal.

The BJP tried its best to win over the Billava community but failed to douse the discontentment, said BJP MLA Umanath Kotyan.

The Congress, determined to win most Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka, initially wanted to fight the BJP’s Hindutva plank by releasing caste census and announcing reservations.

Hindutva vs caste

But considering the change in the political scenario, it decided to fight the Modi factor by raking up its guarantees and the decline in tax devolution from the Centre.

When Modi himself raised the Hindutva and Ram Mandir issues, the Congress again decided to counter the Hindutva narrative with a caste narrative, said a Congress leader.