Haryana's BJP govt loses majority in assembly ahead of Lok Sabha polls

With little over two weeks left for polling in Haryana for the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has suffered a major setback after three independent MLAs decided to withdraw support from the state government. The BJP government has lost a majority in the assembly.

To make matters worse for the newly appointed chief minister, Nayab Singh Saini, the BJP in Haryana will face its first electoral test on May 25, when polling is scheduled to take place for all 10 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state. The BJP has dominated Haryana politics for the past decade with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) winning nine Lok Sabha seats in the state in the 2014 polls and all 10 seats in the 2019 elections.

'Congress is the instigator'

The nearly two-month-old Saini government is now forced to not only protect the credibility of the state government but also manage the perception that the BJP continues to be in control. “There is no threat to the state government under Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini. It is the Congress party that is instigating these independent MLAs to withdraw support from the state government, because it wants to create the perception that the BJP cannot manage the state,” a senior BJP leader from Haryana told The Federal.

“Congress leaders believe that they will be able to defeat the BJP in the Lok Sabha election battle in Haryana by instigating independent MLAs, but it will not succeed. The state government will complete its full term, and the BJP will again win majority seats in Haryana in the Lok Sabha elections,” he added.

Floor test needed

With the Haryana government reduced to a minority in the assembly, Congress-led opposition parties and the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), a former NDA partner, have asked Chief Minister Saini to either resign on moral grounds or prove majority on the floor of the House. The Congress leaders have also demanded President’s rule be imposed in the state and assembly elections announced at the earliest.

“The state government has to prove its majority on the floor of the House, and for that to happen, Governor Bandaru Dattatreya and Speaker Gian Chand Gupta should call a special session of assembly and let the government prove its majority. It is the discretion of the Governor and Speaker to call a special session. The government has lost majority,” Prateek Som, national spokesperson of JJP, told The Federal.

What are the Options for BJP?

With just 16 days left for the Lok Sabha polls to take place in Haryana, the job is cut out for the BJP leadership, which wants to first concentrate on the general elections, and they worry about the minority status of the state government.

Senior leaders of the BJP elaborated that while the three MLAs, Somveer Sangwan, Randhir Singh, and Dharampal Gondar, withdrew support from the state government, there was no need for it to prove its majority in the assembly as it had already proved its majority in March, and a second trust vote can happen only if either Governor or Speaker of the assembly agrees to it.

“Calling a trust vote or a no-confidence motion again can happen if it is decided by the Governor or the Speaker. The MLAs of JJP have already withdrawn support from the BJP government, and our letter for withdrawing support from the state government is already with the Speaker,” said Som.

Senior leaders of the BJP are hopeful that they will be able to convince the independent MLAs to return to the NDA fold and are mulling over the possibility of a cabinet expansion and also assuring the independent MLAs that they will be offered a BJP ticket at the time of the assembly elections in November this year.

Threat to JJP

Even as the BJP is short of a majority in the assembly, senior leaders of the party are confident that they will be able to secure a majority if the Governor or Speaker calls for a special session of the assembly.

The confidence of the BJP leadership comes from the fact that many JJP MLAs are already in touch with the BJP, which makes the state leaders confident that there is no threat to the government. Out of the 90-member assembly in Haryana, the present strength of the assembly is 88 after former chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar resigned from his membership as he is contesting Lok Sabha polls. Another MLA who quit the membership is Ranjit Singh Chautala.

Out of the present strength of 88 MLAs in the assembly, the BJP needs at least 45 MLAs to prove its majority. However, the present strength of the BJP-led NDA is 43. The BJP on its own has 40 MLAs, and it has the support of three independent MLAs. The remaining 45 MLAs are in opposition with Congress as the largest party with 30 MLAs, JJP having 10 MLAs, one member of INLD, and four independent MLAs.

The good news for the BJP is that out of the 10 MLAs of JJP, Ramniwas Surjakhera and Jogi Ram Sihag have already announced support for the BJP. To further boost the confidence of the BJP, senior leaders of the party claim that a total of at least seven JJP MLAs are in touch with the party when it comes to voting.

“We are aware of these discussions that some of the JJP MLAs can vote for the BJP. But the fact is when JJP issued a whip in March at the time of the trust vote, all MLAs followed it. We are confident that this time also, all MLAs will follow the whip of the party at the time of voting,” said Som.

Second crisis within a month

The problems for the BJP in Haryana seem to be not ending as the state government is in minority for the second time in the last two months.

The BJP government first became a minority in the assembly after the JJP leadership, under Deputy Chief Minister Dushyant Chautala, withdrew support from the state government due to the ongoing farmer protests in Haryana. The second reason for the breakdown of the alliance was that the BJP decided to go alone in the Lok Sabha polls and did not agree to a seat-sharing formula proposed by the JJP chief.

Political analysts believe that if the BJP government does not prove its majority in the assembly, then the state government may lose credibility.

“Nayab Singh Saini is new, and he has to deal with this crisis. It is possible that the government will continue, but a minority government will lose credibility, which will impact the BJP’s poll prospects. The longer the minority government continues, it will become more difficult for the BJP. The Congress is not just looking at the Lok Sabha elections but also the assembly elections later this year,” Ashutosh Kumar, political science professor at the Panjab University, told The Federal.