Five constituencies to watch out for in Gujarat as ruling BJP eyes hat-trick

The ruling BJP is hoping to make a clean sweep for the third consecutive time in a row as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state Gujarat goes to polls in the third phase of the Lok Sabha elections on May 7.

The BJP emerged victorious on all 26 seats in the last two Lok Sabha elections. The saffron party has already bagged one seat - Surat, unopposed even before the polls. The party has been banking on Gujarati asmita (pride), the immense popularity of PM Modi and the Hindutva factor. The Congress, on the other hand, is looking to make a turnaround after a series of defeats, capitalising on support of disgruntled Kshatriya community, alliance with the AAP and anti-incumbency on some of the seats.

Among the key constituencies are Gandhinagar, Banaskantha in North Gujarat, Bhavnagar, Porbandar, Jamnagar and Rajkot in Saurashtra region, Anand in Central Gujarat and Bharuch and Valsad in South Gujarat.

Banaskantha

In Banaskantha, the only district where both BJP and Congress have fielded women candidates, the campaign has focused on mobilising support among women. BJP’s Rekha Chaudhary has been pitted against Congress veteran and two-time MLA Geniben Thakor in the seat.

In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, about 60% of the total 11.9 lakh women voters had come out to exercise their franchise. Thakor has been exhorting women to come out in large numbers and vote for her. “This is primarily a rural district. Women don’t come out unless accompanied by male members of the family. I have been meeting and talking to women across the constituency,” said Thakor.

Gandhinagar

Gujarat’s capital Gandhinagar has been a BJP stronghold since 1989 with BJP veteran LK Advani winning six terms from the seat.

Union Minister Amit Shah has been bagging the seat for the last two terms. A total of 39 candidates had filed their nominations from the seat. However, 16 candidates have withdrawn their candidature. On May 2, a video had surfaced where one of the candidates, Jitendrasinh Chauhan of All India Parivar Party, claimed that he was being threatened to take back his nomination. However, no complaint has been lodged so far.

The main contest, however, is between Shah and Congress’ Sonal Patel. Congress had recorded a 25% vote share in 2014 and 26% in 2019.

Bhavnagar

In the Bhavnagar seat, AAP candidate Umesh Makwana is pitted against BJP’s Nimuben Bhambania. Both of them belong to Koli community.

Bambhania is a two-term mayor from BJP and has replaced two-time sitting MP Bharati Shiyal. Sitting AAP MLA Makwana started his political career with the ABVP and then joined the BJP, working closely with Shiyal. He, however, joined AAP in 2022 and won the assembly polls from Botad that falls in Bhavnagar Lok Sabha segment.

Bhavnagar Lok Sabha seat has been a BJP stronghold since 1991, and Koli vote bank has always been considered to be crucial to win the seat. However, Makwana hopes to cash in on the anti-incumbency and anger of Kshatriya community to win the seat.

Jamnagar

BJP’s Jamnagar candidate Poonam Maadam is a Congress turncoat who joined the party in 2017.

An otherwise Congress stronghold, Jamnagar seat fell in BJP’s lap after Maadam, a popular local leader switched loyalty to the party. This time, however, she has been facing resistance from Kshatriya community, which is angry over the party’s Rajkot candidate, Parshottam Rupala, for his controversial remarks.

The Kshatriya disrupted several public meetings of Maadam and she reportedly could not address a small gathering, just 100 metres from her residence in Jamnagar. However, the party is hopeful of winning the seat after Modi held a rally in the district on May 4.

Rajkot

The Congress has fielded former Opposition leader Paresh Dhanani against Union Minister Parshottam Rupala whom the BJP has fielded after dropping its sitting MP Mohan Kundariya from the seat.

Rajkot has been BJP forte in Saurashtra region of the state. The constituency comprises of seven assembly segments all of which were won by the BJP in the 2022 assembly polls.

The Congress was nowhere in the contest until April 7, when Rupala made that remark, drawing ire of the Kshatriya community. The incident has landed the BJP in trouble. The party is now facing the anger of Kshatriya community not only in Rajkot but across Saurashtra region.

Dhanani had defeated Rupala in the latter's first direct electoral battle back in 2002 from Amreli Assembly seat.

Besides, Rupala hails from the Kadva faction of the influential Patidar community while Dhanani is Leuva Patidar who hold the majority in the seat. The situation can become tricky for the BJP if Leuva Patidars lend their support to Dhanani.