BJP vs Congress: Which way will north Karnataka sway this time?

With the theatrical, high-pitched campaigns for Lok Sabha elections in Vokkaliga-dominated old Mysuru and coastal Karnataka constituencies done, the battle is now playing out from north Karnataka, which will vote on May 7 and conclude polling in the state.

The 14 constituencies of north Karnataka will vote under Phase III of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Bipolar fight

It appears to be a direct contest between the BJP and Congress in the 14 seats in the north Karnataka region.

The BJP is fighting hard since it has to match up to its 2019 general election performance. The saffron party had swept all the 14 seats in north Karnataka, while the Congress had drawn a blank. Even Congress stalwart Mallikarjuna Kharge lost in his home turf — the Gulbarga Lok Sabha seat — then.

But, according to Congress leaders, much water has flown under the bridge since then. Political equations have changed considerably. Kharge, now president of the All India Congress Committee, and his party are fighting hard to retrieve the seat and others in the region.

Hindutva vs 5 guarantees

According to political analysts, while socio-political polarisation gives BJP the edge, a caste divide could help the Congress.

Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, who is currently beating the soaring heat and campaigning in north Karnataka, says: “There is a wind blowing against the BJP, and it will only pick up speed if Congress’s ‘five guarantees’ manage to blunt BJP’s aggressive Hindutva push."

According to political analysts, in north Karnataka, caste and party affiliations will decide the electoral outcome. While in south Karnataka, Vokkaligas dominate the political and social discourses, in the north, it is the powerful Veerashaiva-Lingayat community that does it.

BJP’s bastion

North Karnataka is considered the bastion of the Lingayat community, and their support for the BJP is taken for granted. Its alliance partner JD(S) in this election has limited influence in north Karnataka, barring a few pockets of Kalyana Karnataka region.

However, after the drubbing in the 2023 Karnataka Assembly polls, the BJP seems to be in a precarious position, struggling to regain its hold on the region.

Lingayats constitute roughly 17 per cent of Karnataka’s population, while Vokkaligas make up about 15 per cent. Roughly 35 per cent are OBCs, 18 per cent SC/ST, 13 per cent Muslims, and 3 per cent are Brahmins.

2023 Assembly performance

In last year’s Assembly polls, the Congress made a dent in the BJP’s Lingayat bastion in Karnataka. Its impressive performance in north Karnataka clearly showed that the influential community has gravitated toward the grand old party once again.

In the Kittur Karnataka and Central Karnataka region, the Congress won 44 of the 62 seats with a 44.9 per cent vote share, up by a whopping 6.2 points.

These numbers, which indicate that the Congress has been successful in winning over the Lingayats, are worrying the BJP.

Trouble in key constituencies

The BJP is also facing problems in some key constituencies in north Karnataka over candidate selection.

The rumblings may have come down, but, according to some BJP functionaries, “the undercurrents may make a negative impact on the party that has dominated the political space in the region for over a decade”.

Among the big names of the BJP in the fray in north Karnataka are former chief ministers Basavaraj Bommai (Haveri) and Jagadish Shettar (Belagavi), Union Minister Pralhad Joshi (Dharwad) and Bhagawanth Khuba (Bidar).

Factors that matter

While all eyes are on the way the Veerashaiva-Lingayat votes will sway this time, the votes of most backward classes also seem to be important.

Here, the Congress is hoping to corner all the Kuruba and Muslim votes.

Besides caste calculations, Hindutva rhetoric, Congress government guarantees, ‘Modi Ki Guarantee’ and Centre’s discrimination against Karnataka, the drought conditions can also play a role in the poll outcome in this region, marked by vast areas of dry and arid lands.

Once a Congress stronghold

What’s interesting is that historically, Lingayats were not BJP supporters. They used to back the Congress in the past. In October 1990, Veerendra Patil was ousted from the Chief Minister’s post by the late Congress leader Rajiv Gandhi. With that, the Lingayats broke away from the Congress.

The Congress’s recent attempt to grant religious minority status to the Lingayat community, which stemmed from the Veerashaiva-Lingayat strife issue in the state, was seen as an attempt to bridge this historical divide.

It is now seen to be extra-careful while dealing with issues concerning the Lingayat community.

Siddaramaiah woos Lingayats

Siddaramaiah has been going all out to woo the Veerashaiva-Lingayat community. Over 160 Lingayat mutt heads felicitated Siddaramaiah recently and the community seems to be warming up to him after he declared Basavanna as cultural ambassador.

Also, Siddaramaiah announced the government’s move to set up Vachana University next year.

Besides, Siddaramaiah is moving cautiously on accepting the much-awaited Caste Census report, which is being opposed vehemently by the Lingayat community. He is also trying to placate the feelings of Veerashaiva-Lingayats, who are demanding 2A category reservation.

Key grouses

Last year, the Veerashaiva-Lingayat community decided to intensify their agitation demanding inclusion of all their 96 sub-sects of the community in the central Other Backward Classes List. And, the Akhila Bharatha Veerashaiva Mahasabha wrote to the government on the issue in the run-up to the 2023 Assembly polls to Karnataka.

The main grouse of the Lingayats is that the Caste Census pegs their population at 9 per cent, much lower than popular estimates which place it at 17 per cent.

‘Scientific consensus’

According to HM Renuka Prasanna, national secretary, Akhila Bharata Veerashaiva-Lingayat Mahasabha, their demand is for a “scientific census”.

Much to the discomfiture of the Congress, many of its leaders, including Shamanuru Shivashankarappa and Eshwar Khandre, and tall leaders of Veerashaiva-Lingayats are objecting to the release of the Caste Census report.

However, Eshwar Khandre, secretary general of the Akhila Bharata Veerashaiva-Lingayat Mahasabha, has made it clear that the Caste Census is not an issue in the Lok Sabha polls, as the Congress has not taken any final decision on it.

“The issue will not affect the poll prospects of Congress,” he said.

BJP on a sticky wicket

The BJP is also throwing its weight behind the Veerashaiva-Lingayat community. Though banking too much on one dominant community is against BJP’s long-term strategy, adopted elsewhere in the country, the saffron party has made an exception in Karnataka.

But, it learnt a lesson or two in recent years. Veeranna Charanthimath, former BJP MLA Bagalkot assembly constituency, admitting that it is going to be a challenge for the BJP to prove its sway over the Lingayat community, said the voting pattern in a national election will be different from that of the state elections.

“Especially after chinks surfaced during the last year’s Assembly polls and the large-scale dissension that erupted after selection of candidates…” he observed. “However, compared to the Assembly polls, the situation now looks much better for BJP. The voting pattern in Lok Sabha elections will differ from state elections.”

Wealth ‘redistribution’

To counter the Congress’s moves, BJP is trying to inject the ‘Muslim’ factor in its campaigns. It is vigorously building a narrative that the Congress wants to use the Caste Census to redistribute wealth among the underprivileged.

However, Karnataka BJP leaders are a worried lot. The outcomes in Shivamogga, Dharwad, Belagavi, Koppal constituencies are unpredictable. In Shivamogga, the home turf of BS Yediyurappa, former Deputy Chief Minister KS Eshwarappa has been giving Yediyurappa and his sons sleepless nights.

Until campaigning for the phase closes in the evening of May 5, leaders on both sides have their task cut out.