What BJP's internal survey says about chances in Karnataka, Kerala, TN
Survey says BJP will bag 15 seats in Karnataka, 1 in Kerala, 3 in Tamil Nadu; party's tall claims of clean sweep in Karnataka far from feasible, it suggests
While Karnataka BJP, led by veteran politician BS Yediyurappa (BSY), has been making tall claims that it will win all the 28 Lok Sabha constituencies with the support of the JD(S), a recent internal survey done by the party seems to tell a different story.
Contrary to the BJP's claim of making a clean sweep in Karnataka, the results from a BJP survey suggest that it will have to contend with strong competition from the Congress. The survey has also indicated that the BJP is likely to win one seat in Kerala, and three in Tamil Nadu.
In 2019, the BJP had romped home in 25 Lok Sabha seats, leaving the Congress, JD(S), and independents with just three constituencies – Bengaluru Rural, Hassan, and Mandya.
'BJP to get 15 out of 28 seats'
According to sources in the state BJP, the internal survey showed the party is likely to bag 15 of 28 seats in Karnataka, while the Congress will be victorious in around 10 seats, with a 50-50 per cent chance for both parties in three constituencies. The Congress has been claiming that it will win 15 seats.
The BJP's internal survey suggested that the party should focus on the three crucial seats that the Congress bagged in 2019. It also suggested that the saffron party should fight at the grassroots levels in other constituencies where the Congress has chances of tasting victory.
Notably, the BJP, it seems, is focussing on garnering more seats in Kerala and Tamil Nadu to balance the number from the South, considering it may not be a 100 per cent win in Karnataka.
3 seats in TN, 1 in Kerala
A BJP office bearer, who didn't want to be named, quoted the survey as saying the party has chances in three LS constituencies in Tamil Nadu and one in Kerala. In Tamil Nadu, it may bag Chennai South, Kanyakumari, and Coimbatore constituencies. In Kerala, the BJP is likely to open its account in the Thiruvananthapuram constituency, said the office bearer.
The party has fielded Union minister Rajeev Chandrashekhar against sitting Congress MP Shashi Tharoor in Thiruvananthapuram. While three-time MP Tharoor will give tough competition, what lends the BJP hope is that it had an over 30 per cent vote share in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls, with the Left slipping to the third slot.
In Tamil Nadu, the BJP has fielded star candidates in Coimbatore, Kanyakumari and Chennai South – K Annamalai, Pon Radhakrishnan and Tamilisai Soundararajan, respectively.
Pitched battles in TN
Annamalai will be battling DMK strongman Ganapathy Rajkumar and the AIADMK's Singai Ramachandran. Singai is credited with improving the AIADMK's presence on social media through his work in the party’s IT wing. As Tamil Nadu BJP president, Annamalai, a former Karnataka IPS officer, has been building sizeable support in Tamil Nadu.
Interestingly, all the three candidates are alumni of the prestigious PSG Group of Institutions in Coimbatore, though in various years. Not surprisingly, they are wooing PSG alumni on social media now.
In Chennai South constituency, Tamilisai Soundararajan, former Governor of Telegana and Lieutenant General of Puducherry, faces her old friend and sitting MP Tamizhachi Thangapandian of the DMK and former MP J Jayavardhan of the AIADMK. Chennai South holds a sizeable Brahmin population that voted in favour of the BJP in 2019, and is giving hope this year, too.
Senior BJP leader Pon Radhakrishnan fights against Congress candidate Vijay Vasanth in Kanyakumari constituency. Banking on his clean politician image, Radhakrishnan hopes to win this time, as he did in 2014. In the 2019 election and 2021 by-election, he lost to Congress candidate H Vasanthakumar and his son Vijay Vasanth, respectively.
Internal rivalry at play
Meanwhile, in Karnataka, the BJP appears to be in danger of losing Hubli-Dharwad, North Kanara, Gulbarga, Bidar, Raichur, Chikkaballapur, Kolar, Mysuru, Bidar, Chikkodi, North Kanara, and Chitradurga to the Congress.
It does seem to have a 50-50 per cent chance, however, in Belagavi, Kolar, and Bengaluru Rural.
This situation is largely a fallout of the bitter internal clashes among the leaders of the state BJP unit. It's a replay of what happened in the 2023 Assembly elections, when the squabbles partly led to the party losing power in the state.
The intense rivalry between the factions of BS Yediyurappa and the 'anti-BSY team' (CT Ravi, Basanagouda Patil Yatnal, etc.) could make an impact in these elections too, even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's charisma will be used to the hilt.
What works for Congress
Moreover, the current Congress government's guarantee schemes, and the governance of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and his deputy DK Shivakumar could work in the party's favour. The fact that the state unit has more or less resolved internal difference is a definite plus.
A former BJP MP who didn't want to be named told The Federal the internal survey results are based on the current trends.
"The BJP leadership is clever enough to change the trends while nearing the voting date. But the worrying factor is that the internal clashes among the leaders and the rebel MPs and other leaders who were denied tickets are working against the party," he observed. The state votes in two phases, on April 26 and May 7.
BSY factor yet again
Another state leader and an ex-minister in the former Yediyurappa cabinet, who has distanced himself from the factions, told The Federal that the BSY factor is working against the BJP in this election.
"During the Assembly elections, sidelining BSY became an issue, and that factor worked against the BJP. Now, BSY has been given importance, but the anti-BSY factors and his 'partisan' decisions in selecting MP candidates are proving costly for the party," the state leader explained.
For example, the internal study projects North Kanara constituency, a Hindutva bastion that includes Mangaluru, going back to the Congress. This is because the BC community there supports Hindutva firebrand Ananth Kumar Hegde, who has been denied a ticket this time by the BJP.
Caste equations
The Congress looks poised to win in many constituencies including Kalaburgi, Bidar and Kolar, though it get thwarted by a 'Modi wave'. However, the former minister said that this time the Congress, especially DK Shivakumar, is working hard to strengthen the voter base. The mass appeal of Siddaramaiah is also playing a major role in several constituencies.
The BJP-JD(S) alliance has made the Muslim vote bank, along with the AHINDA (Backward Class, Minorities, and Dalits), to turn to the Congress. “These factors are helping the Congress, and the BJP leadership is trying to overcome these issues with some strategic thinking," he said.
However, the BJP strongholds like Dharwad, North Kanara constituencies are cause for concern for the BJP, as the party certainly doesn't want to lose them. The leadership is trying to pacify the rebels including Ananth Kumar, JC Madhuswamy and KS Eshwarappa, among others.
50-50 chances
Interestingly, the BJP study highlights the possibility of winning Bengaluru Rural, the backyard of the DKS brothers (DK Shivakumar and DK Suresh).
The party has fielded Dr CN Manjunanth, a veteran cardiologist and son-in-law of Deve Gowda, in this constituency. Manjunath's popularity has been growing, and the survey finds him standing a 50-50 chance to win the seat.
Even in the Belagavi constituency, where the powerful sugar and liquor lobbies along with Lingayats and Marathi-speaking communities are the deciding factors in any election, BJP candidate Jagadish Shettar seems to have a chance of winning.
After a short stint in the Congress, Shettar rejoined the BJP and wanted to contest from Dharwad or Haveri constituency. However, he was given Belagavi, which is a Hindutva bastion. Despite opposition from local BJP leaders who started a ‘Go back' campaign because of his 'outsider' status, it is possible that Shettar may win from there, said the survey.
Similarly, in the Kolar reserve constituency, the clashes over Congress minister KH Muniyappa’s candidature have upped the chances of the BJP. The Left Dalits ('untouchables') are the deciding factor who support the BJP, while the Right Dalits ('touchables') are favouring the Congress. As the Congress has fielded a Left Dalit, both parties are on an equal footing here.
Other challenges
Leaders like K Sudhakar (Chikkaballapur), Parliamentary Affairs Minister Pralhad Joshi (Dharwad), Union Minister of State for Agriculture Shobha Karandlaje and others are facing challenges from their own party leaders and workers in their respective constituencies.
"Though the 2019 election saw some issues within the party, no rebellious incidents took place like what is happening in 2024. This time, the 'original' BJP leaders are unhappy with the functioning of BSY and his son Vijayendra, who is the state president of the party,” said the BJP leader quoted earlier.
Moreover, the Congress won due to votes from Vokkaligas and Lingayats in last year's Assembly election. Many factors including the reservation issue have worked against the BJP.
If the same percentage of Lingayats (Panchamasali subsect) and Vokkaligas lean towards the Congress this year too, it may become difficult for the BJP to retain seats gained in 2019, BJP sources said.
Modi and Mandir
Ultimately, a Modi wave and the Ayodhya Ram Mandir may help them tide over these rough patches, feel BJP leaders in Karnataka.
Meanwhile, the Congress is steadily wooing voters. Its recent attacks on the Union government on the alleged financial disparity shown to the state are also working in its favour.
But the BJP leadership is aware of this and is working out different electoral strategies to counter this, added the sources.
