BJP set to win 330–350 seats on its own, predicts economist Surjit Bhalla
Based on statistical possibility, they should get 330 to 350 seats on their own. This is just the BJP, not including its alliance partners, he said
Noted economist Surjit Bhalla on Saturday (April 20) predicted a landslide for Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha elections, a day after the first-phase polling was over, and said the party will surpass its 2019 tally by winning 330–350 seats on its own.
“Based on statistical possibility, they should get 330 to 350 seats on their own. This is just the BJP, not including its alliance partners,” Bhalla told NDTV, which interviewed the former part-time member of PM Modi’s Economic Advisory Council on his recently released book How We Vote that offers an insight into the Indian voter's mindset.
Bhalla, who is known for valiantly defending ModiNomics, also predicted the BJP would see a 5–7 per cent rise in its Lok Sabha seats tally compared to 2019 general elections.
The term ModiNomics was coined by Sameer Kochchar who wrote a book by this name in 2014 before PM Modi burst into the national political scene and gained currency after he took over the reins of government at the centre.
Total rout of Opposition
Predicting a total rout of the Opposition, including the Congress, Bhalla said, “The problem with the (Opposition) alliance is the leadership. The economy matters the most, the leadership matters second. And both of them are in favour of the BJP. If the Opposition had selected a leader who could have a mass appeal or approximating half the appeal that Prime Minister Modi has, then I think it could be a contest." Bhalla said the Congress may win only 44 seats, two less than its 2019 tally.
Bhalla went on to aver that there might be a wave in favour of the BJP this election. “It can be a wave election. Every election has a potential (to be a wave). But it may not also be a wave election," said Bhalla, though he didn’t put it succinctly.
Head start down south
He also predicted the BJP may get a head start down south as well this election and in a first may bag at least five seats in Tamil Nadu and one or two in Kerala. “I won't be surprised if, of all the places, the BJP in Tamil Nadu gain over five seats. In Kerala, maybe one or two," Bhalla told NDTV, echoing PM Modi.
Speaking to Asianet News Network, PM Modi recently claimed that his party’s vote share will increase this election. “You see Telangana, where our vote share has doubled. I believe that in 2024 (the Lok Sabha elections), the vote share is going to increase compared to the previous elections. Seats will also increase,” PM Modi, who has been giving south a big push in his scheme of things for quite some time, told the channel.
Bhalla’s predictions in favour of the BJP, which is not surprising, come at a time when the Opposition INDIA bloc is alleging threat to democracy and Indian Constitution if Modi is re-elected to power for the third consecutive term. His predictions may give a shot in the arm to the BJP. His earlier poll predictions have largely been proved correct.
