UAE set to exit OPEC from May 1 as rift with Saudi deepens: Reports
Abu Dhabi's push to maximise oil output seen to have put it on a collision course with the global oil cartel's production discipline
The UAE is set to leave the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), as mounting disagreements over production quotas and a widening political rift with Saudi Arabia push Abu Dhabi closer to breaking with the organisation it helped shape over six decades, per media reports.
Reports said the decision was confirmed on Tuesday (April 28), delivering a blow to the oil-producing alliance and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia. The exit, slated for May 1, will end the UAE's 59-year membership in the oil bloc.
It comes amid an ongoing conflict involving Iran, Israel and the US triggering a sharp and prolonged disruption in global oil supply. It is also seen as a big win for US President Donald Trump, who has accused OPEC of ‘ripping off the rest of the world’ by inflating oil prices.
Growing disagreements
Media reports said the UAE-Saudi disagreements entered a complex phase by May 2025. Abu Dhabi leveraged modest production increases approved by OPEC+ while Riyadh grew increasingly fearful that the former might wield the threat of exit as a bargaining chip, said an Alestiklal report.
The UAE only needs $50 per barrel to balance its budget, compared to Saudi Arabia's requirement of around $90, driven by its heavy spending on NEOM and other mega projects. That gap has made the two countries' oil strategies increasingly incompatible, media reports said.
Abu Dhabi has refused to cap production despite investing $62 billion in new capacity, and analysts say it has little incentive to keep leaving barrels in the ground, the reports added.
Increase in revenues
A departure from OPEC could unlock upward of $50 billion in additional yearly revenues for the UAE, based on its current spare capacity and ongoing capital investment, according to Baker Institute estimates.
Since the alliance expanded into OPEC+ in 2016, bringing Russia into a leadership role alongside Saudi Arabia, the UAE's interests and those of the Saudi-Russian axis have diverged more sharply.
With fears mounting that global oil demand could near its peak within the next decade, several OPEC members have begun racing to monetise reserves within a shrinking window, with the UAE emerging as the most defiant player in the group.
OPEC is now set to lose not only its third-largest producer, but also its most credible alternative to Saudi dominance.