Strait of Hormuz closure: India's 100 mn barrel crude stocks could cover 40-45 days
India imports about 88 per cent of the crude oil it needs – the raw material for fuels such as petrol and diesel – with more than 50 per cent supplied by Middle Eastern countries and transiting the narrow Strait of Hormuz
Amid the US-Israel strikes on Iran, the shutdown of Strait of Hormuz has raised concerns of oil prices surging. However, India’s requirement with its available commercial crude oil stocks could cover for roughly 40-45 days, according to data and analytics company Kpler.
India holds about 100 million barrels of commercial crude oil stocks – in storage tanks, underground strategic reserves and on ships voyaging towards the country, Kpler said.
Why Strait of Hormuz is key
The United States and Israel launched military strikes on targets in Iran over the weekend. Tehran retaliated with missiles and drones aimed at Israel and countries hosting US forces, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
Also read: Asian markets slide, oil prices surge on escalating Iran war fears
Media reports suggest the conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for global energy flows. Roughly one-third of the world's seaborne crude oil exports and about 20 per cent of liquefied natural gas shipments transit the narrow waterway.
India imports about 88 per cent of the crude oil it needs – the raw material for fuels such as petrol and diesel – with more than 50 per cent supplied by Middle Eastern countries and transiting the narrow Strait of Hormuz, flows from which have been disrupted amid the Iran crisis.
What expert said
If Middle Eastern crude supply were to halt completely for a temporary period, the immediate impact would be logistical and price-driven, with supply risks intensifying if movement through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted for longer, said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modelling at Kpler.
Also read: West Asia conflict: India’s edible oil imports, agri exports under threat
A closure of Strait of Hormuz would at first impact prompt cargo liftings. "However, refiners typically maintain commercial inventories, and cargoes already on water would continue to arrive, providing some short-term cushioning to the system," he said adding in the event of a prolonged disruption, medium-term pressures would build through higher import costs, freight exposure and the need to reroute supplies over longer distances.
"The country maintains strategic petroleum reserves alongside commercial inventories held by refiners and oil marketing companies. These buffers are intended to manage temporary supply shocks rather than sustained outages," he said. "Based on Kpler inventory data, commercial crude stocks are around 100 million barrels, including volumes in the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) facilities at Mangalore, Padur and Visakhapatnam."
India’s oil imports
With imports via the Strait of Hormuz averaging roughly 2.5 million barrels per day – about half of India's just over 5 million bpd total crude imports – these combined reserves could theoretically cover around 40-45 days of imports in a crude disruption scenario, he said.
Additional refined product inventories would extend effective coverage further.
However, the immediate impact will be on prices. Brent, global benchmark, crossed USD 80 per barrel, roughly 10 per cent more since the Iran crisis. For India, higher prices means higher import bill.
India spent USD 137 billion on crude oil imports in fiscal year ended March 31, 2025. During April 2025 to January 2026 - first ten months of current fiscal - it spent USD 100.4 billion on imports of 206.3 million tonnes of crude oil.
India, the world's third-largest oil importer, imports roughly half of its crude needs through the narrow Strait. Its mainstay liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplier in Qatar also uses the strait to ship the fuel to India.
India's crude import bill to rise
In case of closure, India can tap suppliers in West Africa, Latin Amercia and the US to make up for the shortfall from the Middle-East. India could also tap Russian oil to make up for the deficit.
India had agreed to wind down purchases of Russian oil as part of a trade deal with the US – a deal which now sits in limbo after the US Supreme Court struck down US President Donald Trump's country-based tariffs.
"Russian cargoes currently floating in the Arabian Sea and wider Asian region without firm buyers could also be absorbed relatively quickly if required," Ritolia said.
If the Strait of Hormuz – the narrow 33-kilometre passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea – were disrupted or shipping were forced onto longer routes, India's crude import bill would rise.
(With agency inputs)