Eight-year winning streak ends: Is the market rally losing steam?

For the first time in eight years, the Sensex and Nifty ended Muhurat Trading in the red. The benchmarks opened higher on Sunday (November 8), with the Sensex rising over 400 points to a high of 81,442 and the Nifty crossing 25,100 to reach 25,132, but gave up all their gains by the close.

The Sensex ended 28 points lower at 80,999 after opening at 81,299, while the Nifty fell 44 points to settle at 24,986 after opening at 25,070. The decline broke an eight-year winning streak of green closes during Muhurat Trading from 2018 to 2025, raising questions about whether investors are engaging in simple profit-booking after a sharp rally or turning cautious.

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Explaining the market reaction, Bharath Kumar HS, Director of Ladco Crest Wealth, noted that caution appears to be settling in. "I think maybe investors are slightly cautious. Some sort of profit-booking we would have seen. Investors are expecting some uncertainty in the market. And the sudden rally which has happened, I think, has made them very cautious," Kumar said.

Recent market rally

The pullback followed a strong seven-session winning streak in the week prior to Muhurat Trading, during which the Sensex gained 8.8 per cent and the Nifty rose 8.6 per cent. That rally was largely supported by foreign institutional inflows and falling crude oil prices.

Despite the minor setback on Muhurat Trading, Kumar believes the underlying buying interest remains genuine due to attractive valuations.

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Pointing to global factors, he highlighted the global artificial intelligence trade as a key driver for potential foreign capital rotation into Indian equities. "Even globally, AI stocks are very expensive, ahead of all valuations. People will be very cautious when the earnings are not there. It will disappoint investors, and they will look for the market that is better on earnings, and the money will flow towards that market. So India is in a very good position if AI slows down," the analyst added.

Rebound on Monday

On Monday (November 9), the domestic market managed to regain some lost ground following the Muhurat session. The Sensex rose 107 points to close at 81,106, while the Nifty gained 58 points to settle back above the key 25,000 mark at 25,044.

However, the Monday gains remained modest, making the upcoming trading sessions critical for determining the market's trajectory. Outlining the crucial technical levels, Kumar said, " If Nifty is able to close above 25,100 for the next one or two days and sustain above that, I think the market's rally will continue."

Also read: Stock market bloodbath: Sensex dives 1,045 pts, Nifty tanks to 21-month low

He cautioned that crude oil prices remain the biggest risk factor for Indian markets. "If crude goes to 115 or 120 dollars again, we might see 22,000 again. 22,000 for Nifty is a very strong support. I do not think it is easy to break that level, because earnings growth is there. It should be a range-bound market," he noted.

Outlook ahead

The end of an eight-year green streak during Muhurat Trading has raised questions regarding overall investor sentiment. The ultimate test lies ahead in whether the market recovery can hold if crude prices spike or global uncertainty turns against domestic equities. Stock markets were closed on Tuesday (November 10) on account of Diwali.

As Samvat 2083 begins on a cautious note, the next few sessions will reveal whether this dip was merely a pause or a broader warning for investors.