MP poll: Jaivardhan poised for win in Raghogarh but ominous challenges lie ahead

Two-term MLA Jaivardhan Singh’s victory from his family seat of Raghogarh, in Madhya Pradesh’s Guna district, in the November 17 election is a foregone conclusion given his family’s feudal hold over the constituency and the immense goodwill that his father Digvijaya Singh, Raja Saheb for the locals and Diggi Raja to his contemporaries, continues to enjoy here.

Yet, the electoral contest underway in Raghogarh between the Congress’ Jaivardhan and the BJP’s Hirendra Singh foretells an ominous political challenge for the former in the not too distant future.

For nearly five decades, the writ of Digvijaya Singh, former two-term chief minister of MP and titular Raja of the erstwhile Raghogarh principality, has run large across this largely rural, economically backward and agrarian constituency. Despite the apparent socio-economic inequity that runs deep in this constituency that has neither good hospitals and schools nor basic amenities like proper roads and regular water supply, the voters of Raghogarh have, since 1977, elected Digvijaya, his brother Laxman Singh, his cousin late Mool Singh and, for the past two polls, his son Jaivardhan to the MP Vidhan Sabha.

However, voters across the many villages and tehsils that dot this assembly segment concede, in hushed tones, that the current poll battle could serve as a warning to Jaivardhan to “mend his ways” or face the prospect of an imminent defeat in the next election.

“Raja saheb waali baat nahi hai (he isn’t like his father)” is a common refrain that this reporter heard across Raghogarh, alluding to Jaivardhan’s “lack of connect” with Raghogarh’s hoi polloi even after 10 years of being the constituency’s MLA – a stark contrast to Digvijaya’s enduring grip over the constituency he had last represented in 2003. There is also a growing perception among many that, since entering the political arena in 2013, Jaivardhan has been steadily alienating the team of Congress workers that Digvijaya had built through the over five decades of his political career, which began back in 1971 as president of Raghogarh’s local civic body.

These, though, aren’t Jaivardhan’s real worry, for, at 37 years of age, the young prince still has ample time and opportunity to change perceptions. The main threat to Jaivardhan’s electoral future in his home turf is one that is taking shape as the campaign for the current election picks momentum.

The BJP’s decision to field Hirendra Singh against Jaivardhan is, by all indications, a gambit that will outlast the saffron party’s immediate purpose of forcing a pitched battle for Raghogarh in the current election.

Popularly called Bunty Banna, Hirendra is a recent entrant into the BJP and the vice-president of the party’s Guna unit. A former Congress leader, Hirendra had joined the party in December 2021 at the behest of Jyotiraditya Scindia, Digvijaya’s arch rival who quit the Congress in March 2020 to join the BJP along with 22 of his loyal MLAs, whose defection to the saffron party caused the fall of the Congress’s Kamal Nath-led state government.

However, it isn’t Hirendra’s current station in the BJP or his proximity to Scindia but his direct affiliation with the royal house of Raghogarh that makes him a strong challenger to Jaivardhan. Bunty Banna’s father, Mool Singh, who passed away in 2016, was Digvijaya’s cousin. On the only two occasions in the last 46 years when Digvijaya or an immediate member of his family did not contest from the Raghogarh seat, it was Mool Singh who served as the stand-in for his cousin’s clan.

Mool Singh won the Raghogarh seat in the 1985 assembly polls when Digvijaya was a Lok Sabha MP from the Rajgarh constituency. Later, in 2008, when Digvijaya was on a self-imposed exile from electoral politics, it was Mool Singh who wrested the seat for the Congress before willingly vacating it for Jaivardhan in the 2013 assembly polls.

A widely regarded leader across Raghogarh who the common folk and even Digvijaya addressed as Dada Bhai (elder brother), Mool Singh showed no personal ambition for political office and was content playing an electoral proxy whenever the situation demanded. In the four elections that Digvijaya won from the Raghogarh seat in 1977, 1980, 1998 and 2003 and also when he made way for his younger brother Laxman Singh in 1990 and 1993, Mool Singh played a key role in ensuring that the poll outcome favoured the Raghogarh clan.

Old-timers in Raghogarh recall that in Digvijaya’s absence, it was Mool Singh who addressed day-to-day concerns of the constituency’s electorate. His accessibility to the voters and affable manner gave Dada Bhai a stature of his own, even if he never exploited it for his personal political gain.

However, unlike his father, Hirendra isn’t content playing second fiddle to his more illustrious political relatives. In a political landscape where family feuds and personal ambitions are readily exploited by rivals, Scindia evidently saw Hirendra as the perfect counter to the Digvijaya clan’s domination over Raghogarh and lured him over to the BJP.

Sanju Marathe, a close aide of Bunty Banna, told The Federal that Scindia had personally come to Raghogarh to induct Hirendra into the BJP at an event that had “over 10,000 people from the constituency in attendance”. Marathe said that Scindia made it a point to repeatedly assert that Digvijaya had “used Dada Bhai to protect his own seat and cast him aside once Jaivardhan was ready to make his electoral debut”.

Hirendra’s election campaign in Raghogarh relies largely on two flanks – first, invocation of his father’s legacy and commitment to the progress of the assembly segment and, second, a son’s quest to protect the prestige of his family name and his own self-respect. “Yeh ladai atma samman ki hai aur Raghogarh ki janta ki hai (this fight is for preserving self-respect and for the people of Raghogarh)”, Hirendra says in each of his speeches during the poll campaign.

In keeping with the BJP’s Hindutva pitch, Hirendra also makes it a point to stress on “preserving Sanatana Dharma” and project himself as a crusader for “Ram Rajya” – a heady campaign pitch in Raghogarh since the erstwhile principality’s presiding deity is Raghoji (Lord Ram).

Campaigning through the constituency’s villages, most of which lack even the most basic infrastructure, Hirendra points to the neglect of Raghogarh under Digvijaya’s watch “even though he has been chief minister for 10 years and his son has been a minister”, and claims that “whatever development Raghogarh has seen was either during the time when Mool Singh ji was your MLA or after the BJP came to power in 2003”.

In Raghogarh’s Dongar village, where this reporter met Hirendra on the campaign trail, locals complained about irregular supply of potable water, poor sanitation and the cavalier disregard of their grievances by the incumbent MLA, Jaivardhan Singh.

When this reporter spoke to the locals, their complaints were all directed at Jaivardhan but were qualified immediately with high praise for his father. “Raja Saheb has done a lot for Raghogarh and even today, if he comes to know that anyone here is facing a problem, he ensures it is resolved. He knows everyone in Raghogarh and his doors are always open for us,” says Anil Raghuvanshi of Ruthiyai village.

Raghuvanshi says that unlike Digvijaya, Jaivardhan “does not understand problems of the villages” and is “either dismissive or non-serious” in dealing with grievances of common people. “Aise hi raha toh zyada din nahi chalenge, Raja Saheb se seekhna chahiye unko (he won’t last long as an MLA if he continues this way; he needs to learn from Raja Saheb),” says another Ruthiyai resident, who did not wish to be named.

Locals concede that Hirendra will not win against Jaivardhan “this time” but add that “he will give a very tough fight because he knows the constituency well, has a strong team and enjoys support of the people”. Many have already started drawing parallels between the current electoral contest between Jaivardhan and Hirendra with the one Digvijaya had faced against Shivraj Singh Chouhan when the latter was fielded from the seat in 2003.

Chouhan was the first, and until now, the only BJP candidate who had managed to put up a credible fight against Digvijaya (or Laxman and Jaivardhan). Though Chouhan lost the 2003 election despite a strong BJP wave across MP, which saw the end of Digvijaya’s 10-year stint as CM and the beginning of the saffron party’s nearly two decade long rule, he drastically reduced the Raja of Raghogarh’s victory margin to just over 21000 votes.

Local BJP leaders are hopeful that the current election will also see a significant reduction in Jaivardhan’s victory margin, which was over 46,000 votes in the 2018 election.

“If Bunty Banna is able to reduce Jaivardhan’s margin by half, he would have scored a major win even in his defeat. It is clear that he is drawing a lot of support and chances are that the BJP will make him Jaivardhan’s opponent in the next election too. There is a lot of resentment against Jaivardhan because of his arrogance and lack of commitment as an MLA but people don’t speak up because of Digvijaya. This will change if Bunty Banna continues to build his base in Raghogarh for the next election starting now,” an office bearer of the Guna district BJP unit told The Federal, requesting anonymity.