MP Assembly polls: Anti-incumbency to farmer distress, 10 major issues dominating state polity

With the 2018 assembly elections ending in a photo finish and the current one too being a closely contested one, all eyes are on Madhya Pradesh where the Congress is going all out to extract revenge for its government’s collapse in 2020 while the BJP has recalibrated its strategy after being in power for almost two decades.

The Federal takes you through the issues dominating the electoral discourse in the key state which has usually witnessed a bipolar battle between the Congress and the BJP with other political parties having limited clout.

1. Anti-incumbency: With the BJP being in power in the state for almost two decades, except for the 15-month stint of the Kamal Nath-led Congress government from December 2018 to March 2020, anti-incumbency is the biggest issue in the state.

The gravity of the situation could be gauged from the fact that the BJP has refrained from projecting Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Madhya Pradesh’s longest-serving chief minister, as it chief ministerial candidate in the 2023 Assembly polls. With “voter fatigue” weighing heavily on the BJP’s mind, the party has brought in big guns from the Centre to contest the assembly elections. These include Union ministers Narendra Singh Tomar, Prahlad Singh Patel, Faggan Singh Kulaste, and BJP general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya, apart from four BJP MPs. Interestingly, all these are now being seen as the contenders for the chief minister’s post, if the BJP manages to retain power in the state.

Chouhan, who till now was seen as a moderate face of the BJP, has tried to reinvent himself while embracing the agenda of Hindutva on the lines of his UP counterpart Yogi Adityanath.

2. Hindutva: Both the major players in state politics are trying to woo the electorate projecting themselves as “pro-Hindutva”. While Hindutva has always been a major poll plank for the BJP, it is the Congress led by PCC chief Kamal Nath that has surprised many by peddling “soft Hindutva”.

The BJP is playing the Hindutva card, accusing the Congress leaders of fooling the Hindus by resorting to moves like visiting the temples only at the time of elections while also hitting out at the party over the Sanatana Dharma controversy. Besides, the BJP has also been emphasising the development of religious tourism projects like Mahakal Lok Corridor in Ujjain and Adi Shankaracharya statue in Omkareshwar.

The Congress is also trying to woo the Hindus, with its CM face Kamal Nath projecting himself as a Hanuman devotee. His move to invite the right-wing Bajrang Sena to merge into the Congress had also raised many an eyebrow. Moreover, he along with his MP son Nakul Nath also played host to controversial Bageshwar Dham chief priest Dhirendra Shastri on his home turf Chhindwara.

3. Corruption: Taking a leaf out of its Karnataka campaign, the Congress has mounted an offensive against the ruling dispensation over the issue of corruption, calling it a “50% commission” regime.

PCC chief Kamal Nath makes it a point to target the Chouhan government over corruption, listing out scams like Vyapam, to corner the BJP. He alleges that nothing happens in the state until you grease the palms of BJP leaders or government officials. Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi, who has already held a clutch of rallies in MP, had alleged that 250 scams have taken place under the BJP government in the state since 2003.

On the other hand, the BJP makes a counter-attack, while dwelling on the Congress’ track record at the Centre from 2004 to 2014, listing a series of scams like coal scam, 2G scam and AgustaWestland deal.

4. Farmer distress: With a majority of the state’s population engaged in farming, the Congress and the BJP are eyeing support of the farmers who are reeling under lack of remunerative prices for their agricultural produce, high input costs, erratic weather and consequent crop damage, vicious cycle of debt and lack of infrastructure support.

The Congress had returned to power in 2018 by capitalising on the farmers’ discontent in view of these factors. Besides, its slew of promises for farm sector like farm loan waiver and free power supply had also led to the support of the farming community. The BJP too has been making all the effort to garner support of the farmers by listing out schemes like PM Kisan Samman Nidhi under which financial aid is extended to the farmers.

5. Unemployment: Sounding poll bugle in Madhya Pradesh on June 12, AICC general secretary Priyanka Gandhi had launched a scathing attack on the BJP government, claiming that it had given only 21 government jobs in MP in the last three years.

As per the data presented in the Madhya Pradesh assembly, there were over 39 lakh unemployed youth registered at employment offices in the state. A majority of them belong to the OBC category followed by the general category youths.

The Congress also alleged that 10,298 students and 6,999 unemployed persons have died by suicide in the state under BJP rule. The Congress attributed the lack of jobs to alleged scams in the state, such as nursing recruitment scam, police constable recruitment scam, teacher recruitment scam and patwari recruitment scam.

Chief Minister Chouhan is now promising one job to each family in the state, if his party retains power. “I will remove difficulties from the lives (of the people of the state). If elected to power again, one person from every family will be given employment so that they do not have to migrate. Be it through self-help groups, Udyam Kranti Yojana or government jobs, one person from every family will be given a job,” he said.

6. Factionalism: Voices of dissent are emanating from both the Congress and the BJP, with the latter being more affected by internal feuds.

BJP workers created a ruckus in front of Union Minister Bhupender Yadav at the party office in Jabalpur following the release of its fifth list of 92 candidates. The supporters of BJP aspirant Dheeraj Pateria and former minister Sharad Jain created a ruckus at the party office after Abhilash Pandey got the ticket from the Jabalpur North seat. The angry party workers also clashed with Yadav's gunman.

Congress workers burnt the effigies of Digvijaya Singh and Jaivardhan Singh objecting to the names of party candidates from seats like Burhanpur, Shujalpur, Seoni-Malwa, Semaria, and Jaora.

Many of the aides of Union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia have also joined the Congress over the last few months. They had all joined the BJP along with Scindia who led a group of over 20 MLAs in a rebellion against the Congress, leading to the fall of the Kamal Nath government in March 2020.

7. OBC factor: With the Congress strongly advocating the need for a caste census in every state, it has ensured that the OBC factor may well play a critical role in the assembly elections, particularly in view of the fact that they make up around 50% of the state’s population.

The BJP has been banking heavily on OBC support with CM Chouhan being the most powerful leader from the community. Prior to Chouhan, BJP had OBC leaders like Uma Bharti and Babulal Gaur as its chief ministers.

However, now the Congress is hoping to make big gains among the OBCs with its caste census card. Notably, the Congress has also sought an OBC quota within women’s reservation. PCC chief Kamal Nath has been reminding people that it was his government in 2019 that hiked the OBC reservation to 27% in government jobs through the Public Service Commission. The High Court had struck this down later.

8. Women: With the women accounting for half of the 5.52 crore voters in the state, both parties have pulled out all stops to woo them.

Leading the race is Chief Minister Chouhan, who has cleverly crafted an image of affable “mama” (maternal uncle) over the last almost 18 years, by unveiling schemes like Ladli Laxmi Yojana for newborn girl child and offering sops like laptops and two-wheelers to meritorious students. Months before the elections, he has gone a step further and rolled out Ladli Behna Scheme, announcing monthly aid of Rs 1,250 to women in the state, apart from subsidised LPG cylinders. He even washed the feet of two women, who in turn showered him with petals, at a recent event.

To counter him, former CM Kamal Nath too has promised similar women-centric policies. He is also targeting the BJP over the increasing crime against women. The BJP is countering these allegations, claiming that it has enacted strict laws with death penalty for convicts in cases of raping minors.

9. Tribals: With tribals accounting for 21% of the state’s population and 47 out of 230 assembly seats being reserved for STs, the BJP is leaving no stone unturned to ensure that they get the community’s support in these elections.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi celebrated the 500th birth anniversary of tribal queen Rani Durgavati in Jabalpur earlier this month. Prior to it, the BJP government had renamed Bhopal’s revamped Habibganj railway station after Rani Kamlapati, the Gond queen. It was all a part of the well-devised strategy as the BJP attributes its 2018 loss largely to its poor showing in tribal-dominated areas.

Of its 52 districts, the state has six “fully tribal” districts, while another 15 are classified “partially tribal”. The Bhil community accounts for nearly 40% of the state’s ST population, followed by the Gonds with 34%. In the 2018 polls, the BJP could win only 16 of the ST seats, as against the Congress’ 30.

The Congress has time and again attacked the BJP government by highlighting incidents of atrocities against tribals. The viral video of a man with alleged BJP links urinating on a tribal man in Sidhi district had given fresh ammunition to the Congress to target the Chouhan regime a few months back. In a damage control exercise, the chief minister had to intervene and wash the victim’s feet.

10. Dalits: Prime Minister Modi’s two consecutive visits to Sagar district in Bundelkhand underscored the significance of the Dalit votebank to the BJP.

The PM not only laid the foundation stone of a Rs 100 crore Sant Ravidas temple but also announced several other development projects. SCs account for around 17% of the state’s population with 35 out of 230 Assembly seats reserved for them. Among them, followers of Sant Ravidas are believed to be the largest chunk.

The SC voters are expected to play a decisive role in Bundelkhand, Gwalior-Chambal and Vindhya regions. In the 2018 Assembly polls, the BJP had won 18 of these seats, with 17 going to the Congress. In the 2013 elections, the BJP won 28 SC reserved seats, while the Congress got 4. To consolidate SC votes, while the BJP is banking on development and celebration of Dalit icons, the Congress is trying to show that the state tops in atrocities against Dalits.