Rajasthan polls 2023: As Congress is well aware, Rajasthan is no cakewalk for Gehlot

In a desperate bid to stay in power despite anti-incumbency, the Congress government in Rajasthan led by Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot has unleashed several populist schemes. Gehlot is trying to make history by retaining power, which no other chief minister has achieved in the last 25 years in Rajasthan.

But he knows that he is not just pitted against an aggressive Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) but also against some of his colleagues within the Congress.

The Congress high command appears to know that the situation in Rajasthan is not that rosy. Congress mP Rahul Gandhi has said that while the party is setting the narrative in the election-bound states of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the fight is “very close” in Rajasthan.

This public admission narrates the story of the Congress government.

Gehlot’s problems

Over the past five years, Gehlot faced little or marginal threat from the traditional rival BJP as the main opposition party is itself a divided house. An internal war is raging within that party.

There is little love lost between BJP stalwart and former chief minister Vasundhara Raje and her party’s central leadership. For the first time, Raja won’t be the BJP’s chief ministerial face. This is part of the generational change the BJP has initiated in Rajasthan.

For once, it has decided not to name any chief ministerial candidate. This has provided an opportunity for every prominent BJP leader in Rajasthan to fancy his chances of becoming the next chief minister.

In February, it named Gulab Chand Kataria, a former BJP home minister in Rajasthan, as the Assam Governor. At 79, he was told not to contest this time.

“Corruption is the biggest issue in the upcoming elections, and the BJP is sending a message to people that since Vasundhara Raje is facing corruption allegations, she is being sidelined as the chief ministerial candidate,” said Jaipur-based political analyst RD Gurjar, a former professor at the Rajasthan University.

BJP heavyweights

While the BJP wants Raje to contest, it has also fielded at least seven MPs including former union minister Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore, Diya Kumari, Baba Balaknath, Narendra Kumar, Bhagirath Choudhary, Kirodi Lal Meena and Devji Patel.

To make things even more difficult for Raje, the BJP is planning to ask union minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat to be a candidate. Senior leaders like Arjun Ram Meghwal, a Union minister, and Ashwini Vaishnaw are leading the BJP campaign in the state.

But Gehlot’s trouble comes mainly from within his own party. Former state Congress president Sachin Pilot has become his biggest challenger in Rajasthan.

When Pilot and his supporters openly came out against Gehlot, he survived as chief minister with the help of most MLAs though the Congress leadership is known to have thrown its weight behind Pilot.

“The biggest challenge for Gehlot has come from Pilot. For the past five years, the two have fought each other… Now, after five years, the Congress organisation is weak and Gehlot cannot rely on his own party workers,” said Gurjar.

Ahead of the assembly elections, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge made Gehlot and Pilot sit together to end their feud -- for now.

Populist schemes

Though Pilot has often claimed that he was promised the post of chief minister by the Gandhi family, the task may not be so easy to execute.

In the last five years, Gehlot has not only managed to enjoy the support of MLAs but he has also blocked all attempts by the party leadership to dislodge him.

Amid all this, taking note of the BJP’s electoral strategy, Gehlot is trying to defeat the BJP in its own game.

Sensing that the BJP’s real strength comes from the beneficiaries of different populist programmes of the Union government, Gehlot is busy creating his own beneficiaries.

To start with, the Rajasthan government has promised 12 cooking gas cylinders at Rs.500 each. The scheme was launched on April 1. This is meant to counter Modi’s Ujjwala scheme that provides subsidised cooking gas to the socially and financially weaker sections.

Another scheme the Congress leadership believes can become a game changer in Rajasthan is the Rs.25 lakh insurance cover for the poor and also free food provided to the poor. The state also gives free power to farmers and 100 units of free power to all others.

Not enough?

But this may not be enough. “The challenge for the government is that these schemes are not visible on the ground. The general perception is that these are not benefitting people,” said Gurjar.

The Congress also promised to implement the old pension scheme and conduct a caste-based survey. The Rajasthan battle is crucial for the BJP because it won 25 Lok Sabha seats both in 2014 and 2019. The party wants the record to continue next year – if Modi desires a third term as prime minister.