US polls: H1-B and student visas, tariff policies at stake for Indians
Kamala Harris as US President might rake up human rights issues with India, while Donald Trump might take a protectionist stance on trade and immigration
The outcome of the US election holds substantial consequences for India, especially regarding immigration and trade. Donald Trump’s stance on immigration has been notably strict, with potential implications for the hundreds of thousands of Indian students and professionals seeking opportunities in the US.
Also read: Trump pits Americans against one another, US deserves better: Kamala Harris
In the latest episode of Talking Sense with Srini, The Federal’s Editor-in-Chief, S Srinivasan, discusses the significance of the US election, particularly for India, how a shift in the White House could impact Indian interests, the role of protectionism in Donald Trump’s policies, and Kamala Harris's liberal stance.
Indian students in US
According to recent data, over 140,000 student visas were issued to Indians in 2023 alone, highlighting America as a top choice for higher education. Trump’s protectionist agenda could complicate such pathways, limiting educational and professional options for Indians abroad, said Srinivasan.
In recent years, India has strategically aligned closer with the US, moving away from its historically non-aligned stance. With this alignment comes the need to navigate America’s shifting foreign policy landscape, he added.
Also watch: Why are US Presidential elections held on Tuesdays in November?
Srinivasan pointed out that India remains a critical partner for the US, particularly in trade, technology, and defence. Any changes to trade tariffs or preferential treatment for Indian goods could affect the economies of both nations.
Trump’s protectionism vs Harris’s multilateralism
A Trump administration could bring a more self-centered, protectionist approach to trade. Previously, Trump halted preferential trade benefits for India, leading to friction over imports, such as Harley-Davidson motorcycles.
This unpredictability in trade could lead to new tariffs on Indian exports, impacting India’s economic stability, said Srinivasan. "Trump called India 'a great abuser' (of trade deals) and, in the same breath, said Narendra Modi is 'a great man'," he recalled.
Conversely, Harris and the Democratic party generally advocate for multilateral collaboration, focusing on human rights issues, which could include sensitive topics like Kashmir. If Harris assumes a leadership role, issues concerning democratic values and civil rights might be spotlighted, potentially straining Indo-US relations in ways the Biden administration has so far avoided, he added.
Nevertheless, Srinivasan underscored that India will adapt to whichever administration comes to power, enhancing diplomatic relations regardless of leadership shifts.
Watch | Episode 1 of Talking Sense with Srini: Can India fend off US pressure amid Canada fallout?
Impact on global conflicts
Two major ongoing conflicts, Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Palestine, also weigh heavily on US foreign policy. Trump and Harris propose different approaches.
Harris advocates strong support for Ukraine and a swift end to the war, aligning with European interests. Trump, however, may adopt a more indifferent stance, potentially empowering Russia’s position in the region, observed Srinivasan.
On the Israel-Palestine issue, while bipartisan consensus strongly supports Israel, Harris may push for humanitarian assistance and conflict resolution. Trump’s administration, by contrast, was notably supportive of Israel, with his relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem being a symbolic move.
Srinivasan suggested that the Democrats would take a more nuanced approach to the region’s complexities, whereas Trump’s views might remain straightforward but divisive.
Watch | Episode 2 of Talking Sense with Srini: Modi-Xi talks | High on optics, low on substance?
China and the economy
Srinivasan highlighted how China remains a bipartisan focus for both US parties. Trump is likely to take an aggressive stance, increasing tariffs and adopting a “hardball” approach toward Beijing.
Harris, though less confrontational, would still maintain a wary stance on China, continuing efforts to protect American economic interests. This sustained “hawkish” posture is expected regardless of the electoral outcome, he added.
Media endorsements and democratic integrity
The role of media endorsements in American politics is complex and often controversial. Srinivasan noted that prominent American publications like The New York Times and The Washington Post have traditionally endorsed candidates, an uncommon practice in India.
Recently, however, some outlets have opted not to endorse any candidate, a move Srinivasan interprets as a response to concerns about political backlash.
Ultimately, this US election holds significant stakes for India and the broader world. With potential shifts in immigration, trade policies, and foreign relations, India must remain adaptive to an evolving US-India relationship, said Srinivasan.
(The content above has been generated using an AI model trained on The Federal’s proprietary data AI. To ensure accuracy, quality, and editorial integrity, we employ a Human-In-The-Loop (HITLO) process — while AI assists in creating the initial draft, our experienced editorial team carefully reviews, edits, and refines the content before publication. At The Federal, we combine the efficiency of AI with the expertise of human editors to deliver reliable and insightful journalism.)
