Unclear roadmap, unanswered questions render 'One Nation, One Election' a pipedream

The Union Cabinet, on Wednesday (September 18), accepted recommendations of the high-level committee, headed by former President of India Ramnath Kovind, which had recommended rolling out simultaneous elections to the Lok Sabha, all State Assemblies and Local Bodies.

Union minister Ashwini Vaishnaw, who briefed reporters about the Cabinet’s decision, asserted that there is overwhelming support, particularly among the country’s youth, for its contentious proposal, commonly referred to as ‘One Nation, One Election’. Curiously though, Vaishnaw refrained from giving any timeline for the rollout of synchronised polls, claiming that the government needed to still carry out wide-ranging nationwide consultations to evolve a consensus on the issue.

‘Diversionary tactic,’ says Opposition

The cabinet decision and Vaishnaw’s explanation come just a day after Union Home Minister Amit Shah told journalists that One Nation, One Election – a long-pending political agenda of the BJP – would become a reality by 2029, when the next Lok Sabha elections are due.

The Opposition, predictably, has said it would oppose any such move while dubbing the Centre’s decision “undemocratic”, “unconstitutional” and against the principles of federalism. The Congress party and its partners in the Opposition’s INDIA bloc have also raised questions on the timing, necessity and motivation behind the Cabinet’s decision.

Sundry INDIA bloc constituents wondered why the government was making the announcement in the midst of the Assembly poll campaign for Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir, and, if this was yet another “diversionary tactic” by the Modi regime to draw citizens’ attention away from livelihood issues that the Opposition has been vociferously raising.

No timeline announced yet

The claims and counter claims between the Centre and the Opposition aren’t surprising. The two sides had canvassed the same views before the Kovind-led HLC too.

The Cabinet’s decision does, however, raise more questions than it seeks to answer on a consequential move that would significantly alter the contours of India’s electoral democracy. And yet, neither Shah, nor Vaishnaw nor any other member of the Union Cabinet has sought it necessary to explain details of the Centre’s One Nation, One Election plan or even outline a timeline, no matter how tentative, of its rollout.

Gaps in Centre’s justification

The only justifications that the Centre has offered, ad nauseam, are generic ones: it would save money, minimise disruptions caused in governance due to frequent imposition of the Model Code of Conduct for elections, reduce black money in the electoral system, and, of course, that it is a move in “national interest”.

What the government has refrained from explaining is how long it would take to complete the polling exercise once all elections are synchronised – the recent Lok Sabha polls alone were spread across 76 days and seven phases; or how simultaneous polls would ensure that regional or smaller political outfits aren’t denied an even playing field. It is also unclear how circulation of black money would be any less or more than it is in the current electoral system, or why an exercise the Centre claims already has overwhelming support in the country needs to go through another extensive round of consensus building?

Why One Nation, One Election is not possible by 2029

If Shah’s assertion that the ground for One Nation, One Election rollout would be ready before 2029 is accurate, it also runs afoul of the very first recommendation that the Kovind panel had made in its 322 page report. On the One Nation, One Election rollout framework, the Kovind-led HLC had said, “For the purpose of synchronisation of elections to the House of the People and State Legislative Assemblies, the Committee recommends that the President of India may, by notification, issued on the date of the first sitting of the House of the People after a General election, bring into force the provision of this Article, and that date of the notification shall be called the Appointed date.”

As such, unless the Centre is of the view that this recommendation by the HLC needs tweaking, it is evident that the One Nation, One Election rollout cannot happen from 2029 because the first step of the enabling notification being issued by the President “on the date of the first sitting of the House of the People after a General election” was not fulfilled when the 18th Lok Sabha first convened after the June 4 results.

Women’s reservation law an example

Thus, the Home Minister’s claim appears to be following the same treacherous trajectory that the Centre’s promise of rolling out 33 per cent reservation for women in Parliament and State Legislatures followed. The Centre had got the Women’s Reservation Bill (Naari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam) passed by Parliament through a special session last September, but without a determinate timeline for the reservation to actually come into effect. There is still no clarity on when this reservation will finally become a reality and the Centre has made no attempt since last September to shed further light on the issue.

If the HLC report is to be followed in full, the Centre will need to have two separate Constitution Amendment Bills passed by Parliament; one of which, enabling synchronisation of nationwide local body elections will also need to be ratified by a majority of State Assemblies. Here too, the Centre has offered little explanation of how these amendments would be passed in Parliament or ratified by the State Legislatures.

BJP-led NDA to face hiccups in Parliament

The Constitution amendments proposed by the Kovind panel will only be carried if they are supported by a two-thirds majority of the MPs present and voting in both Houses of Parliament.

Unlike the past decade, the BJP-led NDA government doesn’t have a brute majority in the Lok Sabha now and its numbers in the Rajya Sabha stand at exactly the half-way (simple majority) way. If all 543 MPs of the Lok Sabha are present when these Bills are put to vote, the two-thirds mark to carry the amendments would stand at a staggering 363 MPs against the NDA’s current bench strength of 293 MPs.

To ensure a two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha with its current strength, the NDA will either have to win over as many as 70 MPs from the Opposition or the BJP’s floor managers will have to convince nearly a 100 MPs to walk out from voting so that the two-thirds mark comes down. Both of these are unlikely prospects given the acrimony between the NDA and INDIA blocs and the hostile attitude of the INDIA partners against One Nation, One Election.

In the Rajya Sabha, where the amendments will need the support of over 160 MPs to be passed in a full House, the NDA currently has 122 MPs. Again, unlike the past 10 years, it can no longer take for granted the generous support it used to receive from its friendly non-NDA parties such as the BRS, BJD and the YSRCP. The latter two parties still have over a dozen MPs between them in the Rajya Sabha.

Reality or eyewash?

That rolling out synchronised polls will not be possible till the Constitution is suitably amended is obvious. If the Centre lacks the legislative strength to carry through this pre-requisite for One Nation, One Election, how will it rollout the actual exercise?

The Centre’s grand announcement, which also marked the completion of 100 days of Modi’s third stint as prime minister, may have succeeded in grabbing national headlines and triggering a furore from its rivals.

With a litany of unanswered questions, nagging doubts, an indeterminate timeline and a much shrunken bench strength of a shaky ruling coalition that has, in these 100 days, already been forced to repeatedly make a volte face on various policy and legislative proposals, will One Nation, One Election actually become a reality or remain a momentary diversion from the more substantive challenges – electoral, administrative and socio-political – that Modi presently faces? There’s no telling either.